Fangraphs: 7 top 100 guys

[SpOkane]

The Top "109" list or whatever his list is per year at FG is updated infrequently. I think his team lists are much better, not necessarily the rankings, but the analysis of each prospect. He doesn't stop at 30 for each team like MLB Pipeline, so some teams can have 70 players listed. I think his tool grades aren't as "aspirational" as MLB Pipeline's either.

I think it is better to have the analysis of what the player will/can be correct than whether the player should be #56 or #91.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I do wonder why the respect for Fangraphs prospect list in general. I had the same thought when I looked through their rankings, seem like it needs a refresh most of the time, seeing prospects who should be dropped like Yorke and former draft picks - even Mayo, he’s one of our guys, but surprise he’s that high - I get 20 yr who made AA, but definitely down year.

He had a number of injuries, so you have to view his season in that light.   I’m not defending his ranking, just saying that other factors play a role.  

I feel that with all these lists, the “interim” lists aren’t that thorough and careful.   The lists that come out in Feburary are better.  

In Norby’s case, I think his defense holds his rankings back.  Not that I know anything about Yorke’s defense.  

 

[WI O’s Fan]

It is surprising that Norby was ranked so low.  I would think a 22 yr old 2b hitting 29 hrs with + 900 ops  would be in the top 100.

[now]

Wow, looking at the Board's team rankings, you can see that among all players ranked 60+FV, batters outnumber pitchers by 12 to 4. And for 55+FV, it's 26 to 11. It only swings the other way at around 40FV and below. I wonder what the explanation is... whether they're just being risk-averse with the arms. 

[Frobby]

On 10/8/2022 at 12:49 PM, ShoelesJoe said:

Nick Yorke is a twenty year old 2nd baseman in the Red Sox system who put up a .668 OPS this season in high A ball. In 2022 Connor Norby put up a .960 OPS at AA and then 1.123 OPS at AAA. FG lists Yorke as the #90 prospect in all of baseball, and Norby is what .... #250 or there abouts? 

Unless Yorke projects as the defensive equivalent of Roberto Alomar AND Norby somehow doesn't even know where 2nd base is then these ratings are absurd to the point of laughable. Yes, Norby is 22 months older than Yorke, but I dare say there isn't an organization in baseball that wouldn't rather have him in their system than Yorke. 

You’ll enjoy this comment from Keith Law’s looks at Yorke in the AFL:

“Boston second baseman Nick Yorke had a huge breakout season in 2021, the 2020 first-rounder’s pro debut, but wasn’t as good in High A this year at age 20, hitting .232/.303/.365 with a 25 percent strikeout rate. He has a great, simple swing that should lead to lots of line-drive contact. But all I saw from him last week was pop-ups and short flyouts, with just one base hit in 11 plate appearances and otherwise moderate to weak contact. That hit came on a 98 mph right-on-right fastball, so it’s not that he can’t hit or turn on velocity (he pulled it to left), just that he’s getting under the ball too much. He’s not going to be a power hitter, but it looked like he was trying to lift the ball too much whenever I saw him. He’s a fringy defender at second so he is going to have to hit to have value.”

Of course I have no idea what Law thinks of Connor Norby.  

[LookinUp]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

Of course I have no idea what Law thinks of Connor Norby.  

Based on that write-up, he better have a higher opinion of Norby.

Defense: doubt Norby's worse than fringy.

Offense: Norby has power and production at high levels. Yorke doesn't have power or production.

Age: Yorke is younger.

Advantage Norby, IMO.

Edited October 19, 2022 by LookinUp

[Just Regular]

Norby and Yorke are another high school-college pair who maybe shouldn't yet be compared on the same performance scale, same as Gunnar and Westburg.

That Gunnar played about the same as Westburg earlier in the minors was the beginning of the reveal he's just plain a better prospect!

Norby has about 1.8 years on Yorke - while still a bit short of the 2.4 years Westburg has on Gunnar, its a good gap.

They do match up well as 2B only guys whose Hit tool is their carrying one.    I'd lightly bet Elias would trade Norby for Yorke today if he could.

[Sports Guy]

Law had Norby as a first round pick in the year he was drafted.

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Norby and Yorke are another high school-college pair who maybe shouldn't yet be compared on the same performance scale, same as Gunnar and Westburg.

That Gunnar played about the same as Westburg earlier in the minors was the beginning of the reveal he's just plain a better prospect!

Norby has about 1.8 years on Yorke - while still a bit short of the 2.4 years Westburg has on Gunnar, its a good gap.

They do match up well as 2B only guys whose Hit tool is their carrying one.    I'd lightly bet Elias would trade Norby for Yorke today if he could.

I would take the opposite side of that bet.  Norby is close to the fully baked best case scenario of himself.  Actually, he's looking better than the original best case scenario.  A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.  

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Law had Norby as a first round pick in the year he was drafted.

He also was the high man on Norby in his Orioles prospect rankings last spring, ranking him 8th (Westburg 6th, Ortiz 7th).   None of the other rankings I saw had Norby any higher than 10th (OH).   

[sportsfan8703]

I’m hoping we keep all these prospects and don’t look to start using them to buy until the trade deadline next season. GR and Westburg are ready. Cowser, Norby, Hall, and Ortiz, are really close. Then behind them we have Mayo, and Kjerstad, as top power bats. The trio of recent NCAA bats also look like they’re ready to blow up. 
 

I want to win at the MLB level and make the playoffs, but I also don’t want to sell early on these guys for a #3 type SP. I don’t think Elias will either. Another half season in our system, outside of GR and Westburg, wouldn’t be “holding” them down. 

[Frobby]

On 10/8/2022 at 12:49 PM, ShoelesJoe said:

Nick Yorke is a twenty year old 2nd baseman in the Red Sox system who put up a .668 OPS this season in high A ball. In 2022 Connor Norby put up a .960 OPS at AA and then 1.123 OPS at AAA. FG lists Yorke as the #90 prospect in all of baseball, and Norby is what .... #250 or there abouts? 

Unless Yorke projects as the defensive equivalent of Roberto Alomar AND Norby somehow doesn't even know where 2nd base is then these ratings are absurd to the point of laughable. Yes, Norby is 22 months older than Yorke, but I dare say there isn't an organization in baseball that wouldn't rather have him in their system than Yorke. 

For what it’s worth, Yorke has heated up in the AFL, hitting .345 with a .961 OPS.  It’s a league with an average OPS of around .800, so take that with a grain of salt, but still those are good numbers.  

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

For what it’s worth, Yorke has heated up in the AFL, hitting .345 with a .961 OPS.  It’s a league with an average OPS of around .800, so take that with a grain of salt, but still those are good numbers.  

Austin Martin with a career minor league average of .254 in 834 PA's his hitting about .450.   So yeah, take everything with a big grain of salt.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Austin Martin with a career minor league average of .254 in 834 PA's his hitting about .450.   So yeah, take everything with a big grain of salt.

How I’m looking at it is, good numbers may be misleading and exaggerated, but they still beat having bad numbers.   

As to Kjerstad, one of the things we heard even when he was putting up good numbers at Delmarva was he wasn’t hitting the ball in the air enough.   He’s certainly been hitting it in the air in Arizona, with 5 homers and 5 doubles in 14 games.  
 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

How I’m looking at it is, good numbers may be misleading and exaggerated, but they still beat having bad numbers.   

As to Kjerstad, one of the things we heard even when he was putting up good numbers at Delmarva was he wasn’t hitting the ball in the air enough.   He’s certainly been hitting it in the air in Arizona, with 5 homers and 5 doubles in 14 games.  
 

Right.  4 of his homers to RF as well.  He's definitely pulling the ball in the air.