2022's Shortstops

[Just Regular]

I read a note on Fangraphs saying an average shortstop with an average bat is basically a 3.5 WAR player.    '22 Mateo got there mixing a Top 5 Glove and a Bottom 5 Bat, and B-Ref gives him 3.3 WAR.     Some of the commenters there call it the Erick Aybar rule, after someone who never ever seemed like a star, but posted 21 WAR in 7 seasons 2009-2015.

Anyhow, among the 29 starters B-Ref saw (and me editorially calling TBR Wander Franco, not Taylor Walls), Mateo's 81 OPS+ was "undered" only by LAA Andrew Velazquez, KCR Nicky Lopez, MIA MIguel Rojas, and ARZ Geraldo Perdomo.    Other low or no-hit shortstops near Mateo in the 80's of OPS+ were NYY Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, SFG Brandon Crawford and PHI Bryson Stott - that group of eight was pretty solidly the Bottom Quartile offensively.

Mateo led the AL in OAA, with Nicky Lopez and Jeremy Pena the next two guys.    As ever SS is a young man's position and despite his relative inexperience in MLB, Mateo is already a "middle-aged" shortstop.      Seasonal Ages of this year's 30 were:

35 - Brandon Crawford

33 - Elvis Andrus, Miguel Rojas

32 - Jose Iglesias

31 - Kyle Farmer

29 - Javier Baez, Xander Bogaerts, Tim Anderson, Trea Turner

28 - Corey Seager, Dansby Swanson, Francisco Lindor

27 - Andrew Velazquez, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Jorge Mateo, Carlos Correa, Nicky Lopez, JP Crawford, Tommy Edman

26 - Amed Rosario, Willy Adames, Ha-Seong Kim

25 - Nico Hoerner

24 - Bo Bichette, Jeremy Pena, Bryson Stott

23 - Oneil Cruz

22 - Luis Garcia, Geraldo Perdomo

21 - Wander Franco         (Gunnar Henderson??.....)

We've talked a lot of Marlins trades with Mullins or Santander given their general run production problems, but if Jazz is straight up a 2B now, Miami Mateo seems like it might work also.

 

[MarCakes21]

If you could do Mateo for Lopez straight up, I'd be interested.  I think we need a mid-rotation starter in addition to our FA push on SP, and I also believe Mateo has the most trade value assuming others value him as a 3 WAR player too.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

If you could do Mateo for Lopez straight up, I'd be interested.  I think we need a mid-rotation starter in addition to our FA push on SP, and I also believe Mateo has the most trade value assuming others value him as a 3 WAR player too.

I bet you would be interested. Doubtful Miami does that.

I do think we need to see if Miami wants him and we can include him in a deal.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

Good thoughts as always. Maybe the Giants could be a match? They like to fix our guys and at 36 they have to be looking to replace Crawford. Would they dump Desclafini's salary? He could be a "buy low" candidate coming off the ankle injury. We would be committed to 2 years/$24M. That seems like the type of contract Elias might be interested in. 

[oriole]

I don’t see the rush to trade Mateo. He could be even more valuable just based on the rule changes next year. Worst case scenario is that he is a defensive replacement and pinch runner and considering he is elite at both, he is a good piece to have on a competitive team. 
 

Totally unrelated to his performance but he went for a foul ball once where he hopped over the 3rd base edge into the stands a bit and basically stomped this elderly guy and he showed absolutely no remorse but that’s totally subjective and admittedly, he has no obligation to feel sorry anyone…plus it’s on TV so I could have missed it. They didn’t even mention it in the broadcast. 
 

Otherwise, I really like having him on the team. I say keep him. Henderson/Mateo defense on the left side is well above average.

[ScGO's]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

If you could do Mateo for Lopez straight up, I'd be interested.  I think we need a mid-rotation starter in addition to our FA push on SP, and I also believe Mateo has the most trade value assuming others value him as a 3 WAR player too.

I'm starting to wonder if we should look to do a mega deal instead. Besides Chisholm and their pitching, Miami could essentially use an upgrade at every position.

What if we did Mullins, Santander, Mountcastle, Mateo, and Westburg for RHP Lopez, LHP Jesus Luzardo, C Nick Fortes, LHP Dax Fulton, OF Griffin Conine, and RHP MD Johnson.

 

Lopez and Luzardo are a nice 1-2 Righty Lefty Punch to add to the top of the rotation and Fortes is the most ideal backup catcher you could ask for, .696 OPS, 9 Dingers, 1.3 WAR, throwing out 26% of runners which is a tad higher than the league average. He's cost controlled too. Fulton, Conine and Johnson are all intriguing prospects in their own right and this deal allows Elias to add a couple more upper level pitching prospects which we still desperately need. Conine seems like an interesting bat for the analytic team. The LH HR Power is very real, but so are the Ks. If he can figure it out, he'd be a great bat for our stadium.

The O's have to commit to the FA route too if they do this and sign one of Rizzo or Bell for 1B and some OF depth (Brantley, Nimmo, Kiermieher?) to go along with Hays, Stowers, Vavra, McKenna, and Phillips. Perhaps Cowser wins a job out of ST.  In the infield, you give Norby and Ortiz a chance to win the job out of ST as well, but plan on starting with Urias at 3B, Gunnar at SS, Vavra at 2B, and Rizzo/Bell at 1B.

The Rotation is Lopez, Lazardo, GrayRod, Bradish, Kremer to start. Hall and Wells to the BP potentially making it elite.  Pitching wins Championships. Again, we'd have to commit to a couple FAs to add to the offense if we made this trade, but there are more offensive weapons not too far away in the minors too.

[Jim'sKid26]

Is everyone convinced that Mateo is what he is offensively after 770 MLB ABs? 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is everyone convinced that Mateo is what he is offensively after 770 MLB ABs? 

I'm convinced about 80% that he's a hacker who will never put a full season over .700 OPS.   BUT, there's about a 20% feeling that he could be a .700+ type of hitter with 15-20 homers, a .240-.260 average.     

[kidrock]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is everyone convinced that Mateo is what he is offensively after 770 MLB ABs? 

Not particularly convinced that he will improve or not improve.  If I had to ignorantly guess, I would say that he doesn't show all that much improvement in his current form in terms of hitting.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is everyone convinced that Mateo is what he is offensively after 770 MLB ABs? 

He aggressively swings like a power hitter (111 max EV), but his average EV is 85.5 (3 mph below league average) and he strikes out 27+% of the time.  Those stats are bad enough on their own, but making it worse is that they play against his biggest strength as a player - his speed...    

Can he be more selective?  Can he improve his quality of contact (even if it doesn't translate into a higher EV)?  If he continues to swing like he's a power hitter, no.  If the 27 y/o leopard can change his spots, then there's another level.  I just don't see it though.

 

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, oriole said:

I don’t see the rush to trade Mateo.

Worst case scenario is that he is a defensive replacement and pinch runner and considering he is elite at both, he is a good piece to have on a competitive team. 

The rush would be Henderson. Let me be clear, I was one of Mateo’s biggest cheerleaders during the season, but Henderson needs to play the position at which he’s most comfortable. 

I agree with the second part of the statement, Mateo has value as a super sub or utility guy. I’d sure like it if he could hit, but I don’t see it. 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

  If the 27 y/o leopard can change his spots, then there's another level.  I just don't see it though.

 

JJ Hardy age 27 season in Milwaukee (2010): 101 games, .268/.320/.394 with 6 HRs and 44 RBI

Age 28 season after trade to Baltimore, (2011): .269/.310/.491 with 30 HRs and 76 RBI. 

It's been done before... 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

He aggressively swings like a power hitter (111 max EV), but his average EV is 85.5 (3 mph below league average) and he strikes out 27+% of the time.  Those stats are bad enough on their own, but making it worse is that they play against his biggest strength as a player - his speed...    

This is a good example to flesh out something I heard last offseason, the gist of which was "90th percentile" exit velocity is a better impact indicator than "maxEV".    Idea being it filters out the noise of hackers who can crush one once in a blue moon, but their hard hits are few and far between.    Despite a very respectable maxEV, Mateo indeed was about Bottom 10% overall in Hard-Hit rate.

By the way, poking around Hard-Hit rate results, I took my first view of Gunnar's numbers MLB-wide.    He only had 82 Batted Ball Events, so have to drop filter to 50+ to get him, but his Hard-Hit rate of 53.7 was Top 10 MLB-wide.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2022&position=&team=&min=50&sort=13&sortDir=desc

[OriolesMagic83]

29 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

JJ Hardy age 27 season in Milwaukee (2010): 101 games, .268/.320/.394 with 6 HRs and 44 RBI

Age 28 season after trade to Baltimore, (2011): .269/.310/.491 with 30 HRs and 76 RBI. 

It's been done before... 

Hardy hit more HR but his OBP went down.  Is Mateo likely to learn plate discipline and not be a free swinger.  I would have to guess no.

[orioles22]

If Mateo helps bring  a top of the rotation guy, I could see moving him. If not, I think he's a perfect bridge to Holliday in three years, and we're covered at short for the next decade. I would have Ortiz ready to play second and move Westburg in a package.