Orioles 2022 #4 Prospect DL Hall - LHP

[MarCakes21]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't follow the other organizations closely enough to know how to rank the system compared to others, but those three are the impact guys in the system. Now, Mayo and Basallo are potential impact guys due to their ceilings, but the strength would be in the amount of 50 level players in that 4-9 range.

That's what I'm curious and agree we're top heavy, but I feel like we're also balance.  Someone posted this elsewhere:

Henderson: 65
Rodriguez: 60
Hall: 55
Holliday: 55
Mayo: 50
Ortiz: 50
Cowser: 50
Westburg: 45
Kjerstad: 45
Norby: 40+
Basallo: N/A

And maybe you even have some guy higher than that, but if you have Hall, Mayo, Ortiz, Cowser, Westburg all 50+ and Kjerstad at 45, still seems like it'd be a top org based on 5 guys on the Top 100 border.

[MarCakes21]

5 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

That's what I'm curious and agree we're top heavy, but I feel like we're also balance.  Someone posted this elsewhere:

 

I kinda answered my own question, but for those curious, the site here has future values in dollars:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&pageitems=200&pg=0&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

If you remove Grod, Gunnar, and Holliday, it takes away $168mil in value, which moves our total to $195 which would rank us as 16th farm system based on fangraph.  That's impressive in the quality of the depth.

[Tony-OH]

25 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

That's what I'm curious and agree we're top heavy, but I feel like we're also balance.  Someone posted this elsewhere:

Henderson: 65
Rodriguez: 60
Hall: 55
Holliday: 55
Mayo: 50
Ortiz: 50
Cowser: 50
Westburg: 45
Kjerstad: 45
Norby: 40+
Basallo: N/A

And maybe you even have some guy higher than that, but if you have Hall, Mayo, Ortiz, Cowser, Westburg all 50+ and Kjerstad at 45, still seems like it'd be a top org based on 5 guys on the Top 100 border.

If those are fangraphs, remember, that differs from my scouting grades which are explained in the Top 30 post. My 50 player is different than Fangraphs 50 future value. that's why you see Norby as a 40+.

[interloper]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Do you actually look at game logs or pay attention at all, because this statement is ludicrous. I mean, you can have any opinion that you like, but you sound ridiculous when you make statements that are factually untrue. 
 

Go look a six game stretch from May 26 to Jun 21, 2022 and a four start stretch from July 1st to July 17th and tell me he was bad all year? 

Look at what he did at the major league level over his last 8 appearances. 

Did he have bad outings? sure did. Does he struggle with consistency at times, sure does. But to say he was pretty bad all year is factually wrong.

 

No need to attack me for it. Of course I pay attention and it's silly you would suggest otherwise. All I mean is the numbers at the end of the year were not good. I expected and was hoping for better. Doesn't mean I'm giving up on the guy, far from it. But the ERA and walk rates were garbo and that's just facts. Relax.

Edited November 17, 2022 by interloper

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, interloper said:

No need to attack me for it. Of course I pay attention and it's silly you would suggest otherwise. All I mean is the numbers at the end of the year were not good. I expected and was hoping for better. Doesn't mean I'm giving up on the guy, far from it. But the ERA and walk rates were garbo and that's just facts. Relax.

It did not attack you, I showed how silly your statement was that he was bad all season in AAA. You know you can't make silly statements here without being called out. If you were paying attention as you said, I doubt you would have made such a factually wrong statement.

[Sports Guy]

13 hours ago, interloper said:

No need to attack me for it. Of course I pay attention and it's silly you would suggest otherwise. All I mean is the numbers at the end of the year were not good. I expected and was hoping for better. Doesn't mean I'm giving up on the guy, far from it. But the ERA and walk rates were garbo and that's just facts. Relax.

Yea but you said he was bad all year.  That’s not true and that’s Tony’s point.

He was bad for stretches of the season but he was also pretty dominant for other stretches.

It was an overall disappointing year but I would love to go back to what happened in July.  He was pitching well and then the break came and then he had the 1 inning start and then more time off and things kind of unraveled after that.  Would love to know why it was handled that way. 
 

After 4 straight good starts in July,  he threw 1 inning over a 9 day period.  His next outing, he was awful, giving up 6 runs in .2 innings.  Now, that wasn’t the plan I’m sure but he just got rocked.  Over a 16 day period, he only threw 1.2 innings.  After that, he just kind of struggled until he came up here for the pen.

I didn’t think the stuff was impressive at all when he came up for the start so obviously something was going on because lack of stuff is certainly not his issue, either by stats or opinion.

Tony mentioned a dead arm.  Perhaps that was the issue.  I don’t know but obviously something was an issue.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

I don’t really care what his ERA was.  My bigger issue was that he walked 3 or more batters 9 times in his MiL outings. The walks are my issue.  
 

I’m not worried about him giving up too many runs or hits or homers at the ML level. I’m worried about I’m giving up just enough of those things that, combined with the walks, it becomes a real issue.

Blake Snell had a 4.2 BB rate in the minors and a K rate of about 10.5.  Hall has a much higher K rate but the BB rate was about 1 walk more.  Snell had a sub 3 MiL ERA and Hall is at 3.4.  More innings for Snell too.

There are similarities there though.  Electric stuff, lefty, struggles with command and control from time to time.   Hall has Snell type upside.  His upside is likely higher than Grayson but GRod is obviously much more likely to hit his.

[waroriole]

With the need to manage innings for Grayson and Hall, it would be fun to pair them in games. Power RH and power LH could really throw off hitters. 

[Sports Guy]

I think Grayson ‘s innings will need to be managed some but I think people are overrating just how much.

[olddogger]

Some of Hall's bad outings were (at the time) attributed to "tipping his pitches."

[waroriole]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Grayson ‘s innings will need to be managed some but I think people are overrating just how much.

How many innings do you think he pitches this year? 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

How many innings do you think he pitches this year? 

I think he can easily get to 130 and perhaps push 140-150.

[Aristotelian]

23 minutes ago, olddogger said:

Some of Hall's bad outings were (at the time) attributed to "tipping his pitches."

First I have heard that. Where are you getting it? Would be very good news if it was something fixable. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

First I have heard that. Where are you getting it? Would be very good news if it was something fixable. 

It was all over the place.  It was some of the starts leading up to his good run in July.

If you go back in the Hall thread in the minors section, you will be able to see the info on it.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Sports Guy

[seak05]

I think some people here are undervaluing high leverage reliever. As a reliever Hall has Diaz level upside, and he just signed for 100m dollars. The importance of relievers is only going to grow going forward