Eovaldi vs Bassitt

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Rodon underwent TJS during the 2019 season and returned during the 2020 season. In the bookend years before and after season directly affected by the surgery, 2018 and 2021, he missed over 1/3 of his starts and 1/4 of his starts respectively. And in 2017, he missed almost 2/3 of his starts.

You can't blame it all on one injury, the guy is simply brittle.

 

I blamed the 2019 and 2020 seasons on the TJ.  I didn’t blame any other year on that injury.  He came back in 2021, pitched straight through the end of July making each turn. He made 2 starts in August, on the IL, and made 4 starts on extra rest in September and pitched very well.   In 2022, he made every single turn, made 5 starts in September and finished very strongly.   He certainly appears to have ended last season strong and healthy. I understand the concern but what chronic injury are you predicting will occur?   

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I understand the concern but what chronic injury are you predicting will occur?   

He appears to have the chronic injury of being chronically injured.

Prior to his 31 starts last year, which btw wasn't even a full 32 starts, his career high was 28 starts all the way back in 2016, and prior to his back to back contract years in 2021 and 2022, he posted a cumulative 4.14 ERA/100 ERA+ across 6 seasons. That's a pretty large sample size, and not one that screams "good massive long-term investment for small-mid market team." 

He's the most unappealing option of the top 10-12 free agent SPs for the Orioles, IMO. 

[MarCakes21]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So, 650 or so?

In his 8 seasons as a ML pitcher, he has just under 850 innings.  Never had a 5 year stretch anywhere close to even close to 600 innings.

So basically, you are saying that a guy, who will be in his 30s for the entirety of his contract, will be healthier in his 30s vs his 20s?

Yes, he had two years of TJ.  So the theory is that that's behind him, but he could still have health issues like any pitcher over the course of 5 year.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, MarCakes21 said:

Yes, he had two years of TJ.  So the theory is that that's behind him, but he could still have health issues like any pitcher over the course of 5 year.

He missed 25% or more of his starts in 2017, 2018, and 2021, none of which had anything to do with his TJS in 2019/2020.

[Just Regular]

Baseball Forecaster gives Rodon's five-year injury log as:

73 days in 2018 for left shoulder surgery     (4+ years later a procedure that looks like a spectacular success)

152 days in 2019 left elbow inflammation

52 days in 2020 sore left shoulder

19 days in 2021 left shoulder fatigue      (probably why most GM's scaling back load on best pitchers game-wide)

5 days in 2022 for covid

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Baseball Forecaster gives Rodon's five-year injury log as:

73 days in 2018 for left shoulder surgery     (4+ years later a procedure that looks like a spectacular success)

152 days in 2019 left elbow inflammation

52 days in 2020 sore left shoulder

19 days in 2021 left shoulder fatigue      (probably why most GM's scaling back load on best pitchers game-wide)

5 days in 2022 for covid

So recurring issues with his throwing arm.

Thank you for posting this.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

600-750.  Sure, you can use the two years missed to TJ or you can hope he doesn’t require TJ again in the next 5 years.  Take out those two years and he has 800 IP over 6 years and 300 over the last two.  We can play this game with any pitcher.   Who knew Verlander would break down.   Bassitt is going to be 34 and pitched over 160 innings for the FIRST time in his career at 33.   How do we know that career high 181 innings last year isn’t going to lead to TJ this year and basically make a 3 year contract worthless?

There is risk with EVERY pitcher.  Rodon made every start last year. He’s not the same pitcher he was early in his career.  The last two years show that.  If you can’t take this kind of risk this year then there never will be a time.  We won’t outbid teams for the Gerritt Cole types.   There’s enough doubt surrounding Rodon for the Orioles to get him.

There is a risk for every pitcher but obviously the risk is far larger with others.  Rodon obviously falls into that category.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He appears to have the chronic injury of being chronically injured.

Prior to his 31 starts last year, which btw wasn't even a full 32 starts, his career high was 28 starts all the way back in 2016, and prior to his back to back contract years in 2021 and 2022, he posted a cumulative 4.14 ERA/100 ERA+ across 6 seasons. That's a pretty large sample size, and not one that screams "good massive long-term investment for small-mid market team." 

He's the most unappealing option of the top 10-12 free agent SPs for the Orioles, IMO. 

A full 32 start?   There are 30 teams?    21 pitchers in all of baseball made more starts than Rodon last year!   There must be a lot of brittle pitchers in the league.   Bassitt only made 30. Oh my!

Rodons career walk rate is “down” to 3.4.  That’s because it was 2.4 and 2.6 the last two years.  He’s come into his own.  Anyone trying to use statistics from 3 or more years ago is just missing the boat.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Bassitt has 737 innings in 8 years but I’ll be nice and say 7.   How many do you expect from him starting with his age 34 season coming off of a career high 181 innings?

 

3 years?  450 or so.

Im not aware of what major arm injuries he has had or how he missed time recently due to shoulder issues.

Has that been the case for him?

We also are talking about a commitment about 1/3 of Rodon.

[Sports Guy]

The discussion about Rodón should simply be about health and contract.  He’s a stud and any rotation would be better at the top with him in it.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, RZNJ said:

A full 32 start?   There are 30 teams?    21 pitchers in all of baseball made more starts than Rodon last year!   There must be a lot of brittle pitchers in the league.   Bassitt only made 30. Oh my!

Rodons career walk rate is “down” to 3.4.  That’s because it was 2.4 and 2.6 the last two years.  He’s come into his own.  Anyone trying to use statistics from 3 or more years ago is just missing the boat.

A full, healthy season for a SP is 32 starts. He missed one with COVID (thanks JustRegular) last year, which obviously is not really an injury, so we can  simply discard that and consider 2022 the first full, healthy season of his 8 year MLB career.

That doesn't erase the chronic issues with his throwing arm in pretty much every other season, however.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

At the end of the day, quality pitches win against quality hitters.  The level of competition rises in the playoffs, so it’s wise to have quality players for a playoff run.  
If we think we’re a playoff worthy team, then we need quality pitching too.  The bar is higher.  And so is the cost and risk.  Investing style would be high growth industries.

If we think we’re on the road to being a playoff team, then the bar isn’t as high.  The cost and risk can be lower.  Investing style would be diversified dividends or battered companies with a turnaround story.

I think we’re a playoff caliber team.  I’m ok throwing a ton of money at a top tier SP.  Verlander, deGrom, and Rodon all have a better skill set than our current #1 SP and be better than many playoff caliber opposing #1 SP.  Yes, that’s a lot of money/risk on one arm.  But investing in proven winners is easier than catching a falling knife.  I favor the short term AAV of Verlander or deGrom.  I’m not opposed to a longer 5 year deal with Rodon (even working in a player or appropriate team option).

Bassitt, Eovaldi and a few other would also be our #1 but would not be definitively better than opposing #1 SPs.  Our playoff odds would improve but the chances of making a run in the playoffs wouldn’t change much. More likely it would depend on Grayson’s development.  And likely not targeting 2023 to really compete for the WS.

I’m just grateful this is even a topic of conversation vs. sifting for diamonds in the rough.  Bring on 2023!

I think the selling point on DeGrom is what you pointed out.  Having him in a short playoff series, even if he only pitched 80 innings all year, is way better than no having him in a short playoff series.  It's a move for the playoff tournament, not really a move for the regular season.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The discussion about Rodón should simply be about health and contract.  He’s a stud and any rotation would be better at the top with him in it.

I agree, and if he was available on a 3 year deal, I'd be very interested.

But he is seeking 5 or more years and will most likely find it, so I hope he doesn't find it here.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

3 years?  450 or so.

Im not aware of what major arm injuries he has had or how he missed time recently due to shoulder issues.

Has that been the case for him?

We also are talking about a commitment about 1/3 of Rodon.

Pre age 30, Bassitt looks to have missed a lot of time, including the entire 2017 season.   In fact, he looks like a pitcher who couldn’t stay healthy until he hit the age of 30.  In fact, after appearing in 18 games and 13 good starts in 2015.  He never started more than 7 games over the next three seasons.  He looks pretty durable since 2019 but last year was, by far, his high in IP.  
 

Hey, Bassitt is good, safer and cheaper than Rodon BUT Rodon is a genuine ACE.

[Sports Guy]

If you told me right now, I get 600 innings out of Rodón, I do it.

The one thing I would do, if you really want to go after him, is offer him a 5/150 type deal but pay him 90 million for the first 2 years and then give him an opt out after 2 years.  3/60 or opt out.  If he’s pitching well, he opts out. If he’s been hurt, you have him cheaper as your better players start to hit arb.

It’s very risky.  I don’t think I would do it but I think there is at least a discussion about it because he’s so perfect for what we need.