“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[tntoriole]

21 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I am sure you were in favor of it, plenty of Orioles fans were. 

Plenty of other fans, and most baseball FOs, disagreed though, because the data said it was a really bad idea.

Cruz found some kind of "magical" fountain of youth and defied the odds, and was a much better player in his mid-late 30s than he was in his mid-late 20s. Oh well. 

Nelson Cruz was a professional hitter who excelled at his craft in my view.  And who kept getting better by refining his hit tool and figuring out pitchers better and better as the pitcher quality got worse and worse. 

Nellie was an outstanding contributor and team leader  in the best season since 1983 .. but hey, the “data” said no.    My real problem was the complete lack of any replacement or upgrade strategy by Duquette who was distracted a bit perhaps during that offseason. 
 

I cannot recall another person on OH at the time who agreed with me and I was raked pretty good about it then. Most fans agreed with you.   And occasionally over the following 6 years when Nelson was beating us over the head, I admit to taking a certain pleasure in revisiting the decision. 
 

But hopefully Abreu will not be Nellie or Ortiz and will  underperform for the Astros and we will not regret not pursuing him. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Nelson Cruz was a professional hitter who excelled at his craft in my view.  And who kept getting better by refining his hit tool and figuring out pitchers better and better as the pitcher quality got worse and worse. 

Nellie was an outstanding contributor and team leader  in the best season since 1983 .. but hey, the “data” said no.    My real problem was the complete lack of any replacement or upgrade strategy by Duquette who was distracted a bit perhaps during that offseason. 
 

I cannot recall another person on OH at the time who agreed with me and I was raked pretty good about it then. Most fans agreed with you.   And occasionally over the following 6 years when Nelson was beating us over the head, I admit to taking a certain pleasure in revisiting the decision. 
 

But hopefully Abreu will not be Nellie or Ortiz and will  underperform for the Astros and we will not regret not pursuing him. 

He was a known steroid user who was of an age in which the vast majority of hitters suffer a steep decline. 

The O's were able to put a qualifying offer on him that resulted in a first round pick.

Not signing him was the correct process.

How he performed after he left does not change if the underlying process was sound.

 

I will agree that they did not do a good job of replacing his production.

[tntoriole]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He was a known steroid user who was of an age in which the vast majority of hitters suffer a steep decline. 

The O's were able to put a qualifying offer on him that resulted in a first round pick.

Not signing him was the correct process.

How he performed after he left does not change if the underlying process was sound.

 

I will agree that they did not do a good job of replacing his production.

I agree… with the last sentence lol 

Predicting future performance and value is supposedly what GMs do.  So how Cruz performed after he left is absolutely relevant.  Good organizations look at outliers they missed on and reexamine their analysis.  Rigid and failing organizations blame black swans, steroids and the moon rather than their system of decision making. 
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I agree… with the last sentence lol 

Predicting future performance and value is supposedly what GMs do.  So how Cruz performed after he left is absolutely relevant.  Good organizations look at outliers they missed on and reexamine their analysis.  Rigid and failing organizations blame black swans, steroids and the moon rather than their system of decision making. 
 

 

If you look at all the historic data the chances of Cruz doing what Cruz did is extremely small, as in pretty much unprecedented.

Do you want your front office going with the mountain of data or going with a gut feeling that this is the one guy that is going to buck the odds?

I want them to take the pick and replace the player.  The real failure was in how they replaced the player.

I do wonder if they could have recouped another pick by hitting Nick with a QO.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

26 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Nelson Cruz was a professional hitter who excelled at his craft in my view.  And who kept getting better by refining his hit tool and figuring out pitchers better and better as the pitcher quality got worse and worse. 

Nellie was an outstanding contributor and team leader  in the best season since 1983 .. but hey, the “data” said no.    My real problem was the complete lack of any replacement or upgrade strategy by Duquette who was distracted a bit perhaps during that offseason. 
 

I cannot recall another person on OH at the time who agreed with me and I was raked pretty good about it then. Most fans agreed with you.   And occasionally over the following 6 years when Nelson was beating us over the head, I admit to taking a certain pleasure in revisiting the decision. 
 

But hopefully Abreu will not be Nellie or Ortiz and will  underperform for the Astros and we will not regret not pursuing him. 

Ichiro Suzuki was also a "professional hitter" and he posted a .276/.318/.352 batting line with an OPS+ of 88 after the age of 35.

.333/.378/.434 and 118 through age 35.

Guess they don't have "the fountain of youth" in Japan 

6 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Predicting future performance and value is supposedly what GMs do.  So how Cruz performed after he left is absolutely relevant.  

I'll drop the innuendo and just speak directly from here on out.

Most GMs would not have expected him to continue using PEDs into his 40s after previously being busted for PED use.

You don't actually believe that Cruz posting downright Bondsian numbers and some of the highest exit velocities in baseball into his 40s was a natural occurrence, do you?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Ichiro Suzuki was also a "professional hitter" and he posted a .276/.318/.352 batting line with an OPS+ of 88 after the age of 35.

.333/.378/.434 and 118 through age 35.

Guess they don't have "the fountain of youth" in Japan 

I'll drop the innuendo and just speak directly from here on out.

Most GMs would not have expected him to continue using PEDs into his 40s after previously being busted for PED use.

You don't actually believe that Cruz posting downright Bondsian numbers and some of the highest exit velocities in baseball into his 40s was a natural occurrence, do you?

Even allowing for PED use it's a rare career arc.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I agree… with the last sentence lol 

Predicting future performance and value is supposedly what GMs do.  So how Cruz performed after he left is absolutely relevant.  Good organizations look at outliers they missed on and reexamine their analysis.  Rigid and failing organizations blame black swans, steroids and the moon rather than their system of decision making. 
 

 

Perhaps they should have known he was still on the juice, and would continue to be on the juice over the rest of his career.   Your average player doesn't age the way Nelson Cruz did.    He never failed a test.    There's no proof but something smell rotten in Denmark.    Were you in favor of signing Chris Davis?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Perhaps they should have known he was still on the juice, and would continue to be on the juice over the rest of his career.   Your average player doesn't age the way Nelson Cruz did.    He never failed a test.    There's no proof but something smell rotten in Denmark.    Were you in favor of signing Chris Davis?

Davis never lost his amateur status as a hitter.

[Too Tall]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

   Were you in favor of signing Chris Davis?

Please - please - I know we are all bored - but let "sleeping dogs lie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" (With no intended negative association to "dogs.")

[Yardball85]

6 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Please - please - I know we are all bored - but let "sleeping dogs lie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" (With no intended negative association to "dogs.")

Anytime I think of Davis and how god awful he was during that contract - in reality, it was 100X worse than we all remember it.  All the waves and a miss.  All the called strike threes.  All the refusal to do anything about it.  What a waste he was for all those years. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even allowing for PED use it's a rare career arc.

Indeed. As I said, truly a black swan event.

Not gonna beat DD up for not prognosticating that.

There are PLENTY of other things to beat DD up for 

[owknows]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I do not believe you are going to see some kind of blockbuster trade where 3 top 10 prospects are dealt.   I do not think Cowser goes.   Ortiz, Westburg, or Norby are most likely and I think Norby is most likely.

It has been reported a few times by someone here who is familiar with the family, the Norby thinks Norby is most likely.

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, owknows said:

It has been reported a few times by someone here who is familiar with the family, the Norby thinks Norby is most likely.

Right.  That poster actually posted those comments in response to one of my posts that suggested Norby might be the most likely to go.   The fact that Norby is limited to 2B or maybe LF really hurts him but they might think the bat is special.   It sure looked pretty special towards the end of the year.    I leave it to Elias and Sig to know which of these guys are going to be good and which ones might be great.

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  That poster actually posted those comments in response to one of my posts that suggested Norby might be the most likely to go.   The fact that Norby is limited to 2B or maybe LF really hurts him but they might think the bat is special.   It sure looked pretty special towards the end of the year.    I leave it to Elias and Sig to know which of these guys are going to be good and which ones might be great.

Yeah.. I wasn't sure if it was your post or someone else's....  but you'd think a player would have a pretty good idea where he thinks he fits.

It's a challenging guessing game for Elias.

You're never really sure which player is going to progress exceptionally, up until that very last level... then hit a wall. Or which one that you traded away as a result of a little less AAA performance, and a rough first half season of MLB is going to become Arieta.

You can be great at your job, but you're still gonna take some lumps... and you gotta be ok with that.

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Ichiro Suzuki was also a "professional hitter" and he posted a .276/.318/.352 batting line with an OPS+ of 88 after the age of 35.

.333/.378/.434 and 118 through age 35.

Guess they don't have "the fountain of youth" in Japan 

I'll drop the innuendo and just speak directly from here on out.

Most GMs would not have expected him to continue using PEDs into his 40s after previously being busted for PED use.

You don't actually believe that Cruz posting downright Bondsian numbers and some of the highest exit velocities in baseball into his 40s was a natural occurrence, do you?

How many games did he play after the sanctions?  8 years worth . Was he tested?  So you are either saying the testing is totally inept or that he was using substances that escaped detection.  And you think he was not subject to particular scrutiny due to prior offenses?  Yet he played 8 years with ZERO violations which would have cost him an entire season. 
 

So if you think it was steroids that had him playing a huge role in us winning the AL East then show me where you wanted him not signed or suspended during 2014 back then. 

And again you say all GMs knew this yet Oriole GM, Seattle GM, Twins GM etc all signed him?  Are they just stupid? 

https://www.twinkietown.com/platform/amp/2021/7/1/22557471/mlb-minnesota-twins-dh-steroids-should-not-be-synonymous-with-nelson-cruz