“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He's been better historically, he was better last year, he's younger, and he has more upside. 

Shouldn’t we account for the significant drop in velocity after TJ surgery? Kind of offsets every positive you listed. 

[Yardball85]

https://nypost.com/2022/12/13/yankees-face-sizable-carlos-rodon-gap-after-initial-offer/

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

https://nypost.com/2022/12/13/yankees-face-sizable-carlos-rodon-gap-after-initial-offer/

We will see where this goes but these teams can just not be dumb and not offer him more than 5 years. 
 

The gap is sizable because he wants 7/210 with very little history saying he deserves anything close to that.

My guess is more teams see him as 5/150 tops…which is quite frankly where he should be on the high end.

[Yardball85]

 

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We will see where this goes but these teams can just not be dumb and not offer him more than 5 years. 
 

The gap is sizable because he wants 7/210 with very little history saying he deserves anything close to that.

My guess is more teams see him as 5/150 tops…which is quite frankly where he should be on the high end.

I agree. I would love Rodon, but seven years at that type of money for a pitcher with his injury history is nuts.  Even 5 years is a bit worrisome.  

I am still holding out hope the Orioles can snag Eovaldi on a three year deal once Rodon has signed. 

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, Yardball85 said:

https://nypost.com/2022/12/13/yankees-face-sizable-carlos-rodon-gap-after-initial-offer/

But...but...Jon Heyman said it was going to be a "formal" offer.

I'd pay tens of dollars to see them, if Mike Elias is doing TikTok presentations to guys in the market.

In terms of new CBA unrolling and MLBPA getting some ROI for playoff teams 11-12, it is good to see say NYY-TOR racing for marginal wins 95-100.     Certainly for 2023 6th place in the league is an upside scenario, and the more Wins the top dogs get, the more the middle stays in the mix.    I think Bud Selig called this spreading hope.

[waroriole]

8 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

https://nypost.com/2022/12/13/yankees-face-sizable-carlos-rodon-gap-after-initial-offer/

Any Orioles contract offer is probably smaller than the gap between his expectations and the Yankees offer. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

 

I agree. I would love Rodon, but seven years at that type of money for a pitcher with his injury history is nuts.  Even 5 years is a bit worrisome.  

I am still holding out hope the Orioles can snag Eovaldi on a three year deal once Rodon has signed. 

Yep. I would guess Eovaldi gets 3 years at 17-20M per. 
 

Id be pretty happy with that deal if I were the Os. There is no reason not to sign that. They may want a lefty starter but tough. There isn’t one out there unless you can find a trade that’s worth doing and you don’t need to force something just because of the arm the pitcher throws with.

By the AS break, you could have 2 lefty starters anyway, in Means and Hall.

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We will see where this goes but these teams can just not be dumb and not offer him more than 5 years. 
 

The gap is sizable because he wants 7/210 with very little history saying he deserves anything close to that.

My guess is more teams see him as 5/150 tops…which is quite frankly where he should be on the high end.

Typical negotiations.  He wants 7/210. The Yankees offered 5/?.   Yankees hope they can settle at 6/?.

He'll go to the Yankees because they'll meet or beat his best offer from another team.  His agent is probably just using other teams to get the best deal from the Yankees.  

[Yardball85]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep. I would guess Eovaldi gets 3 years at 17-20M per. 
 

Id be pretty happy with that deal if I were the Os. There is no reason not to sign that. They may want a lefty starter but tough. There isn’t one out there unless you can find a trade that’s worth doing and you don’t need to force something just because of the arm the pitcher throws with.

By the AS break, you could have 2 lefty starters anyway, in Means and Hall.

Yup.  I had some interest in Quintana for the price he got, now that ship has sailed, it should be about getting talent and upside.  Eovaldi has both, even if he could also struggle during the deal.  Not every contract has to be a Chris Davis mistake, despite what some people think on here.  You can be smart in FA. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Typical negotiations.  He wants 7/210. The Yankees offered 5/?.   Yankees hope they can settle at 6/?.

He'll go to the Yankees because they'll meet or beat his best offer from another team.  His agent is probably just using other teams to get the best deal from the Yankees.  

Yea I would guess this is what happens because the Yankees need him badly. Their rotation isn’t that great and even Cole has shown some signs of slowing down.

[RZNJ]

40 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Typical negotiations.  He wants 7/210. The Yankees offered 5/?.   Yankees hope they can settle at 6/?.

He'll go to the Yankees because they'll meet or beat his best offer from another team.  His agent is probably just using other teams to get the best deal from the Yankees.  

Btw. Just like Judge, you’ll probably see another team, not the Yankees, rumored to be the leader in the Rodon sweepstakes. 
 

No doubt Judge would have signed with the Giants if the Yankees hadn’t caved at the last minute.  Yankees “that’s our final offer”.  Rumor.  Judge about to sign with Giants.  Yankees “Get his agent on the phone ASAP.”

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Is it that bad compared to the other mega-contracts this winter?

Correa (13/$350 mm): career 39.5 rWAR, 28 next season, has 13 years to earn 44 rWAR (at $8 mm/WAR).  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Judge: (9/$360 mm): career 37.0 rWAR, 31 next season, has 9 years to earn 45 rWAR.  Will be 39 when his contract ends.

Turner (11/$300 mm): career 29.7 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 37.5 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Bogaerts (11/$280 mm): career 34.9 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 35 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.  

Correa is 2-3 years younger than the others and has the highest career rWAR of the group.  He has the longest time to earn his contract.  
 

Honestly we heard 10/350….So it’s i5 possible it’s just like some deferred money. He’s not likely to be an effective player the final 5 or 6 years?

[interloper]

I want whatever the sport of baseball is smoking/drinking this offseason. 

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

I want whatever the sport of baseball is smoking/drinking this offseason. 

Yeah. If I personally owned the O's, I'd definitely be considering alternatives to this FA market. That said, I want Eovaldi. Always loved him.

And I feel like this public negotiation with the Yankees is crazy. First they leak they're going big to get others to exit the market. Then Rodon's team leaks it's not enough. Next another team will enter the fray and that will be leaked. Then the Yankees will probably cave and over pay again.

One alternative is for Boston to sweep in and sign Rodon with no leaks. 

[Aristotelian]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Is it that bad compared to the other mega-contracts this winter?

Correa (13/$350 mm): career 39.5 rWAR, 28 next season, has 13 years to earn 44 rWAR (at $8 mm/WAR).  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Judge: (9/$360 mm): career 37.0 rWAR, 31 next season, has 9 years to earn 45 rWAR.  Will be 39 when his contract ends.

Turner (11/$300 mm): career 29.7 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 37.5 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Bogaerts (11/$280 mm): career 34.9 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 35 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.  

Correa is 2-3 years younger than the others and has the highest career rWAR of the group.  He has the longest time to earn his contract.  
 

Here are the Zips projections for Correa. Appears Zips expects about 40 WAR. That would be $8.75M/WAR in nominal dollars but in real 2022 dollars they could very well get under $8M/WAR