“Orioles will significantly escalate payroll in the offseason “

[tabletop]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Beyond Santander’s 7.5 million there isn’t much arb money. He might even be dealt 

It's not the total amount but the increases that they'll likely site if quotes like this are ever brought up to Elias. Mullins is expected to get 4+ million, Hays 3+ million, Mateo close to 2 million and they all made the minimum last year. Just right there with those three guys they can say they escalated the payroll. Then when you add in Santander and whoever else is also getting arbitration raises (Voth, Tate, etc.) they can say they increased payroll "significantly", site whatever percentage increase it was compared to last year, and no media member will push back on it.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

The math doesn’t work if he does what he said.

The arb number is pretty low. Santander’s is the only real significant bump to 7.5

you can’t get two hitters including a MOO bat plus a staff leaders for the difference between the bump and your number. 
 

plus they have the extra $30 million that they weren’t expecting. Hopefully they invest it in the team. 

The statement you are referring to came before back of the rotation SPs started signing for $10-13 million a year, RP contracts jumped significantly to reach new all time highs, and Abreu got a third year that most were not forecasting. You could have reasonably imagined getting a legitimate #3 SP and an impact bat for $30ish million a month ago.

And we also have a decent number of guys hitting arbitration for the first time and a bunch of little raises add up. Even just $12 million in arb raises comes out to a 25% payroll increase before a single free agent is signed.

 

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, tabletop said:

It's not the total amount but the increases that they'll likely site if quotes like this are ever brought up to Elias. Mullins is expected to get 4+ million, Hays 3+ million, Mateo close to 2 million and they all made the minimum last year. Just right there with those three guys they can say they escalated the payroll. Then when you add in Santander and whoever else is also getting arbitration raises (Voth, Tate, etc.) they can say they increased payroll "significantly", site whatever percentage increase it was compared to last year, and no media member will push back on it.

I've been reading the tea leaves this way all along.

Elias said a lot of the payroll increase will come from raises. I took that to mean more than half.

And if we say they get crazy with it and spend 20 million on raises... That probably leaves 15 or 20 for a 1B/DH and a mid rotation arm. Which is pretty much what I thought they'd do. (And honestly what I hoped they'd do given my desire to see them not block graduating talent)

All of the other big signing talk has been reverberating speculation and wishful thinking.

 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He said adding two bats including a moo and a starting pitcher that one would assume is better than Lyles. You can do that with $30 million imo

Also, the deferred money on those contracts I believe is escrowed. So it shouldn’t affect the current year payroll. That’s if I’m correct 

Largely correct.   If a player earns deferred comp relating to his play in Year X, the money has to be escrowed on July 1 of Year X+2, discounted at 5% per annum until the year it will be paid.   So for example, let’s say a player $10 mm in deferred comp coming to him relating to his play during the 2021 season, but the money wasn’t to be paid until July 2030. The team would be required by July 2023 to put approximately $7 mm into escrow, on the assumption that at 5% annual interest that would grow to $10 mm by July 2030.   If it turns out that the escrow fund hasn’t reached $10 mm by the 2030 due date, the team still has to make up the difference and pay the player in full.   

So, the O’s still have some Chris Davis deferred payments they need to fund from the 2021 and 2022 seasons.   Everything else should be funded already.  

On another topic from your post, I don’t recall Elias saying he was targeting a MOO bat.   


 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Largely correct.   If a player earns deferred comp relating to his play in Year X, the money has to be escrowed on July 1 of Year X+2, discounted at 5% per annum until the year it will be paid.   So for example, let’s say a player $10 mm in deferred comp coming to him relating to his play during the 2021 season, but the money wasn’t to be paid until July 2030. The team would be required by July 2023 to put approximately $7 mm into escrow, on the assumption that at 5% annual interest that would grow to $10 mm by July 2030.   If it turns out that the escrow fund hasn’t reached $10 mm by the 2030 due date, the team still has to make up the difference and pay the player in full.   

So, the O’s still have some Chris Davis deferred payments they need to fund from the 2021 and 2022 seasons.   Everything else should be funded already.  

On another topic from your post, I don’t recall Elias saying he was targeting a MOO bat.   


 

If Cowser turns out to be a MOO is that adding to the herd?

[tabletop]

16 minutes ago, owknows said:

I've been reading the tea leaves this way all along.

Elias said a lot of the payroll increase will come from raises. I took that to mean more than half.

And if we say they get crazy with it and spend 20 million on raises... That probably leaves 15 or 20 for a 1B/DH and a mid rotation arm. Which is pretty much what I thought they'd do. (And honestly what I hoped they'd do given my desire to see them not block graduating talent)

All of the other big signing talk has been reverberating speculation and wishful thinking.

 

Yeah, it's fun to discuss and come up with scenarios where they add outside talent but in reality this has always been what is likely to happen. Everyone gets excited for the headline but when you read the full quotes it's obvious this won't be some crazy spending offseason.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Cowser turns out to be a MOO is that adding to the herd?

I was just thinking, is “MOO bat” a term used anywhere other than on this message board?   I’ve never seen it anywhere else.  My first memory of it was in some post by JTrea81 many years ago, and he was mocked for it.   But it stuck here.   

I see Cowser as more of a TOO bat (see what I did there?), but we’ll see.  
 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I was just thinking, is “MOO bat” a term used anywhere other than on this message board?   I’ve never seen it anywhere else.  My first memory of it was in some post by JTrea81 many years ago, and he was mocked for it.   But it stuck here.   

I see Cowser as more of a TOO bat (see what I did there?), but we’ll see.  
 

He could begin as a TOO and develop power to become a MOO.  Or if he is a good fielder but does hit much he could be a BOO.   Scary thought.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He could begin as a TOO and develop power to become a MOO.  Or if he is a good fielder but does hit much he could be a BOO.   Scary thought.

I’ll be saying boo if he’s a BOO.   

[Going Underground]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

They were expecting the 30 million.

They also trimmed salary by about $25 million last year. Mancini,Lyles and Lopez. 

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, owknows said:

I've been reading the tea leaves this way all along.

Elias said a lot of the payroll increase will come from raises. I took that to mean more than half.

And if we say they get crazy with it and spend 20 million on raises... That probably leaves 15 or 20 for a 1B/DH and a mid rotation arm. Which is pretty much what I thought they'd do. (And honestly what I hoped they'd do given my desire to see them not block graduating talent)

All of the other big signing talk has been reverberating speculation and wishful thinking.

 

I noticed that Elias has mentioned “buy side trades” a couple of times, by which he means trading prospects or pre-Arb players for more established players.  And that is a way you can improve the current team and modestly but not dramatically increase the payroll.

August: “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively.  We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/gm-mike-elias-orioles-will-significantly-escalate-the-payroll-during-offseason.html

From The Athletic in October: “This is the time to start to make more significant investments in the major-league payroll whether that comes in the form of free agents or kind of buy-side trades, I don’t know yet, but I would expect one, if not both of those types of those activities from us.”

 

 

[O's84]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ll be saying boo if he’s a BOO.   

Stop it, you're scaring me.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, tabletop said:

It's not the total amount but the increases that they'll likely site if quotes like this are ever brought up to Elias. Mullins is expected to get 4+ million, Hays 3+ million, Mateo close to 2 million and they all made the minimum last year. Just right there with those three guys they can say they escalated the payroll. Then when you add in Santander and whoever else is also getting arbitration raises (Voth, Tate, etc.) they can say they increased payroll "significantly", site whatever percentage increase it was compared to last year, and no media member will push back on it.

Santander is likely traded, if you sign a SS Mateo gets traded, Hays isn’t worth the raise, and Mullins is still a bargain at 4 million.

And even if they keep all it’s not a “significant increase”. He would’ve just said we will increase our guys.

He said 2 hitters with a MOO bat. Anything of value is going to push up the payroll. A starting pitcher better than Lyles at 11 million will cost you $20 per.

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The statement you are referring to came before back of the rotation SPs started signing for $10-13 million a year, RP contracts jumped significantly to reach new all time highs, and Abreu got a third year that most were not forecasting. You could have reasonably imagined getting a legitimate #3 SP and an impact bat for $30ish million a month ago.

And we also have a decent number of guys hitting arbitration for the first time and a bunch of little raises add up. Even just $12 million in arb raises comes out to a 25% payroll increase before a single free agent is signed.

 

And before it was announced that they were getting a $30 million payout from the Disney deal. And before the new TV deal started. 

[TonySoprano]

BBREF.com is usually in the ballpark (no pun intended) when it comes to projecting arbitration cases.  For 2023, they expect $17.97M in 2023, and that number balloons to $58.5M and $86M in 2024 and 2025, respectively.   https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/baltimore-orioles-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 There's your significant increase.

It's not going out on a limb to expect no big presents under the Orioles Christmas tree this year.