The warning signs are there for the reading

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Ripken said:

I've seen that before.  The guy has a decent number of followers.  I guess the question is, when does something like that become public?  Have we ever had a professional sports team sold and really not known anything about it until the press conference announcing the transaction?

Not a sale, but Mayflower vans are permanently etched on my psyche

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bull crap.  Wasting $163 mm on a below replacement level player is extremely harmful to an organization that has below average revenue to begin with.  

Would not signing Davis had changed the trajectory of the team?

Nope.

Did having Davis on the 26 and 40 man rosters do any harm?

Nope.

We were told the Davis money wouldn't have been spent elsewhere.

It impacted the owner's profits.

[Aristotelian]

Elias said pretty clearly they were not doing long term contracts. That pretty much took them out of Degrom and Bassit, and I would assume Rodon and Eovaldi. Looking at the contracts these guys are getting, I can see why. Verlander and Kershaw will not spend their final years in Baltimore. So that leaves us with the one and two year guys. We could still find value there but it's not going to be one of the elite starters. 

Then Roch let it slip that their bat upgrade might be Harold Castro, a player I had never heard of. Whether they get him or not, that tells you the type of player they are looking at. No Conforto or Brantley. 

Definitely discouraging for '22. Question is what is the long term plan. Maybe we are going full Tampa. Maybe he is waiting until the team is sold. Maybe Elias just didn't like the values this year and will try again next year (looks like it could be more of a buyers market for pitching). Maybe he is still auditioning talent. Maybe a trade is in the works. I am prepared to give Elias a long leash because I see it working and I find the current direction promising. Disappointed but not upset. 

[Ripken]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

Not a sale, but Mayflower vans are permanently etched on my psyche

Yeah, that was a sneak attack for sure, but a different situation, in a different time, with likely fewer involved parties.  If all we got this offseason was the sale to a better ownership group, I'd be more than satisfied.

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bull crap.  Wasting $163 mm on a below replacement level player is extremely harmful to an organization that has below average revenue to begin with.  

Exactly. Even if we had the Yankees budget, paying a guy $25M for below replacement value production puts you at a severe competitive disadvantage versus the Yankees who have no Chris Davis. If you have half the Yankees budget, you are severely constrained. Then it just takes a couple more bad contracts (Trumbo, Hardy, Jones) and you basically can't spend any money for the forseeable future. Davis wasn't the only decision that killed us but it was certainly a big part of it. Would have been so much better off giving him a QO or trading him when we had the opportunity. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

4 hours ago, oriole said:

Elias has got to be looking for a way out at this point. He has built the organization into something special from almost nothing and once it’s time to make that step, there is no green light. I have a hard time being mad at how Elias is handling this. I feel like he may have been under the impression that he could make some moves but it feels pretty obvious that ownership has somehow nixed that. The type of language that Elias has used since the Winter Meetings sounds like damage control. I can’t imagine someone in his position doesn’t realize that now is literally the best time to spend. 
 

 Either that or he is an idiot and I don’t believe that for a second. It’ll be interesting to see what he does with the next club he works with, assuming they aren’t cheap liars like O’s ownership.

I hope, if what you believe is true, that he takes a parting shot on his way out the door. I never understood why GM's, who get "misled" by ownership, never drop the bomb. You guys are going to say its career suicide, but I don't believe that. Elias can say exactly what he feels and still get another job.

 

[E-D-D-I-E]

3 hours ago, owknows said:

Nobody said it was easy.

But I believe it's possible, and the Elias seems to have a knack for the most important aspects of it.

Good drafting decisions and improvements in player development have created a rolling 5 year conveyor belt that looks pretty stacked from top to bottom... Careful stewardship and strategic harvesting could keep that rolling for a decade or more.

You argument seems to be that nobody's doing it, so it's impossible.

I make my living ignoring those kinds of sentiments.

I totally agree with this strategy. Yes its very hard, but it IS how to stay relevant/consistent. Get to the playoffs and good things can happen. The whole reason the O's are in this "rebuild" is because they didn't execute this type of plan. They kept guys until the end of their deals and got NOTHING in return. In this past window, guys like Schoop/Weiters (parts of the core) needed to have been dealt for a package of players. Of course you have to get lucky too. I mean thinking this doesn't work and isn't the right way to operate on a smaller budget, despite seeing it year in and year out in Tampa, is kinda comical.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

9 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

I hope, if what you believe is true, that he takes a parting shot on his way out the door. I never understood why GM's, who get "misled" by ownership, never drop the bomb. You guys are going to say its career suicide, but I don't believe that. Elias can say exactly what he feels and still get another job.

 

If Elias becomes a boy wonder GM, he absolutely can criticize ownership on the way out. The owner of the team that hires him cares about winning and he'll hire him a GM that can build a winner. 

Any owner would take a World Series trophy over having a nice guy GM who is always polite, but is a total loser. 

Also these bad owners deserve to shamed the fans fund them though tickets and tv money. Paying customers deserve a team that is putting it's best effort to win. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Also, he wouldn't have been overspending, he would have been spending what the market dictates. I mean, if you need to get to / from work each day and your car breaks down would you just not buy a new one because you think the price is too much? 

If I am a wealthy spendthrift, sure, I go to the dealership and buy whatever they have at the market price. If I am on a budget, I am going to search for value. I may calculate that driving a succession of beaters has a lower annual cost than buying a new car. Yes, I need a car, but that doesn't mean I just need to accept the market rate for a new one. 

[jrobb21613]

4 hours ago, oriole said:

Elias has got to be looking for a way out at this point. He has built the organization into something special from almost nothing and once it’s time to make that step, there is no green light. I have a hard time being mad at how Elias is handling this. I feel like he may have been under the impression that he could make some moves but it feels pretty obvious that ownership has somehow nixed that. The type of language that Elias has used since the Winter Meetings sounds like damage control. I can’t imagine someone in his position doesn’t realize that now is literally the best time to spend. 
 

 Either that or he is an idiot and I don’t believe that for a second. It’ll be interesting to see what he does with the next club he works with, assuming they aren’t cheap liars like O’s ownership.

I fully anticipate Astro's Owner Jim Crane to come calling. The media has already reported his interest in Sig but I'd bet he'll be checking in on Elias as well especially  if he can get him out of his contract with the O's.

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

I hope, if what you believe is true, that he takes a parting shot on his way out the door. I never understood why GM's, who get "misled" by ownership, never drop the bomb. You guys are going to say its career suicide, but I don't believe that. Elias can say exactly what he feels and still get another job.

 

Elias has been nothing but positive about ownership. If there is any friction going on, he has shown zero signs of it. Could be they are selling the team and he is in on it. 

[deward]

28 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If I am a wealthy spendthrift, sure, I go to the dealership and buy whatever they have at the market price. If I am on a budget, I am going to search for value. I may calculate that driving a succession of beaters has a lower annual cost than buying a new car. Yes, I need a car, but that doesn't mean I just need to accept the market rate for a new one. 

The big problem with this analogy is that the equivalent scenario would be buying a car to win a race against other, high-performance cars. You can shop cheap if your goal is just to commute to work. Maybe not so much if your goal is to win the Indy 500. 

[Three Run Homer]

3 hours ago, Too Tall said:

My response. Sure, it would have been nice to acquire a better starting pitcher or a MOB by this date. It would surly have turned some of the dialog on this site in a more positive direction. And sure, I think I've said in the past, particularly starting pitching is a need. I've also said in the past, I didn't expect much until the ownership debacle is resoved along with the parallel MASN issue. Hence, I'm programing myself to enjoy and root for our youngsters and not sweat what we do or don't do re spending. That's my thinking, my approach and I'm not saying that should be anyone else's. Just putting out mine. Like I said in another post, it helps keep my blood pressure in check. I am looking forward to the 2023 season.

I will root for the 2023 team in any case, but I can't ignore the fact that ownership is not putting this team in the best position to win.  Elias has done a fantastic job rebuilding the farm system and we now have a strong young core, but the team is at the point where they have to supplement their homegrown core with a couple of well-chosen veterans to put them over the top, and it's not going to happen as long as this club is being run by cheapskate greedy bastards.  

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

We have Mateo, Urias, Henderson, Norby, Westburg, Ortiz, Mayo, Wagner, Holliday, all gunning for infield positions in the next few years... and that doesn't include guys like Vavra or any of the Latin American players.

Most of these guys are gonna make the show.

Is it your serious contention that we won't have to trade any of these guys?

Sure, they need to make trades.   Ideally they would trade Mateo and Urias to clear room for Henderson, Westburg and Ortiz this year.  Norby probably needs to move to 1B or outfield because of his defense anyway.  Mayo and Holliday are a couple of years away.   

The problem is that the only way left to get a real front line starter for 2023 is to trade a bunch of really good prospects.  They aren't getting a number one or two starter with Urias and Mateo.   

[Emory Eagle]

I agree the warning signs are there.   To be honest we’re pretty close to worst case scenario since the mid to late 90s at least.  Hard to be optimistic about this club.