Contenders Rotations

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Not to pick on you Osfan but haven't we all hypothesized enough that ownership is why we aren't signing players? That message is getting old. We have no information let alone proof, that this is true. 

 

6 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Not to pick on you Osfan but haven't we all hypothesized enough that ownership is why we aren't signing players? That message is getting old. We have no information let alone proof, that this is true. 

 

[Emory Eagle]

Yeah the rotation looks pretty mediocre frankly, with a ton of uncertainty to boot.  We need to add some more upside potential (probably only possible via trade at this point, although I’d like Eovaldi) and more downside protection (probably via FA e.g. a veteran along the lines of Lyles or Kluber).  

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

It’s not doom and gloom it’s the reality of the situation. You have to be better than 9 teams to make the playoffs. 
 

There seems to be this idea from some that wanting more this year is some indication that people don’t believe in the overall status of the organization. I am very happy with where the organization is at. What happened in the past has zero bearing on anything for me. 
 

This is about the 2023 season and if the pitching staff can hold up enough to get to the playoffs. Nothing more. In 2012-16 it felt like the Orioles had to be close to perfect in the pen to get to the playoffs. There was little margin for error. We all know how important the pen is in the modern game but it would be nice to have more room for error. The best year during that run was 2014. Not a coincidence it was the best year the rotation had.  

You have to be better than 9 teams not have a better rotation on paper than 9 teams. 

The 2012-16 Orioles never spent money on any actually worthwhile SP in free agency. When they spent it was a disaster. The problem with those teams is that their top pitching prospects were either hurt (Bundy, Harvey), didn't perform (Arrieta) or were traded (Davies, Erod). On top of that, there was no analytics/effective player development team in place and they never had a good enough farm system to buy top flight starters via trade. My main point is, we shouldn't just assume that Elias and co. are going to have the same exact issues. They will deal with the same lack of funding sure but the front offices are extremely different. If you took a look at Houston's prospect rankings a few years ago and picked the current 5 they have and said this will be a top 3 rotation in baseball you'd be laughed out of the room. Not anymore. 

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

80% of the Astros current rotation shot out of nowhere and became reliable pieces.

Its hard not to make the parallels b/c of Elias's time in Houston, but I think Elias wants to start with a good framework of pitchers with good command (Wells and Kremer in particular) and tweak something to make the stuff play up.  If it pans out for one guy, boom great - we have a #2 to pair with Grayson eventually at #1.

I'd like another rotation piece this year, but I'm fine not spending 8 figure dollars and years on a guy that may only be a win better than who we have right now.  Save the bullets and make a run for Aaron Nola next FA cycle.

If by "nowhere", you mean international signings 4 to 7 years before the guys made the majors.

Which means that analagous success from Oriole international signings under Elias will not be relevant until the 2nd half of this decade.

We are talking about this year's rotation.

[btdart20]

Yes, ours is the weakest rotation.  It was last year too, and we just missed.  We're not a 'contender' based on the rotation but every other factor of the game.

Playoff Contenders: 

ALE - TOR, NYY, TB, BAL

ALC - CLE, CHW

ALW - HOU, SEA, TEX

I think we'll score more runs than TB, CLE, CHW, TEX, and SEA in 2023.  And our defense should compete against the vast majority of teams in the league.  I like our BP, but who knows on that...  That's what makes it interesting over the long-haul of the season.

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

You have to be better than 9 teams not have a better rotation on paper than 9 teams. 

The 2012-16 Orioles never spent money on any actually worthwhile SP in free agency. When they spent it was a disaster. The problem with those teams is that their top pitching prospects were either hurt (Bundy, Harvey), didn't perform (Arrieta) or were traded (Davies, Erod). On top of that, there was no analytics/effective player development team in place and they never had a good enough farm system to buy top flight starters via trade. My main point is, we shouldn't just assume that Elias and co. are going to have the same exact issues. They will deal with the same lack of funding sure but the front offices are extremely different. If you took a look at Houston's prospect rankings a few years ago and picked the current 5 they have and said this will be a top 3 rotation in baseball you'd be laughed out of the room. Not anymore. 

Once again. I don’t get why people’s concerns are being linked as an indictment of the current regime and player development. Clearly it is superior now. Chen was a good buy but I do understand your point. 
 

The Orioles finished 10th in runs last year. I think they need to add a bat. I do however believe with a full year of Gunnar, 25% more of Adley and a little luck with Mountcastle, Cowser later on etc they can improve on that. It’s my belief the bats have more upside than the rotation has. If all these guys pan out then wonderful, your depth is even better than you could have hoped for. 
 

There is more to a team than the SP but this is where the biggest concern of the team is. In a perfect world you get a repeat from Kremer and the good Bradish. Wells is healthy, etc. I just want more depth. 

[Sports Guy]

The problem with the current rotation is that you have almost zero margin for error. If someone(s) slump, you are in trouble.  If someone gets hurt, you are in trouble. You have guys that can fill in here and there for starts but you don’t have anything reliable for a long stretch.

Add Eovaldi to the rotation and you get more margin for error. Now, like everyone, he has had his health issues as well but you still feel better about the rotation with him in it.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

31 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Not to pick on you Osfan but haven't we all hypothesized enough that ownership is why we aren't signing players? That message is getting old. We have no information let alone proof, that this is true. 

The information we have is watching ownership the past 29 years run this once proud franchise sideways. Elias was on record stating the Orioles planned to add payroll and talent this off-season and now he's walked back those comments.

Elias has earned a certain level of trust and something is preventing him from adding players. I don't think it's Elias changing his mind about increasing payroll. There' s something going on above his level that's tied his hands during free agency.

It might be related to the inter-family lawsuit, preparation of the team for sale or ownership decided against opening up the purse strings leaving Elias with a limited budget for player salaries. 

[owknows]

If...

Grod lives up to the hype

and

Wells does OK until Means' return

and

Means returns to form

and

Kremer continues to develop

and

Bradish is just OK

and

Gibson is a modest upgrade over Lyles.

then

Is this rotation in the top half of AL contenders without an upgrade?

I think so.

Will it likely be upgraded?

I think so.

 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The information we have is watching ownership the past 29 years run this once proud franchise sideways. Elias was on record stating the Orioles planned to add payroll and talent this off-season and now he's walked back those comments.

Elias has earned a certain level of trust and something is preventing him from adding players. I don't think it's Elias changing his mind about increasing payroll. There' s something going on above his level that's tied his hands during free agency.

It might be related to the inter-family lawsuit, preparation of the team for sale or ownership decided against opening up the purse strings leaving Elias with a limited budget for player salaries. 

Technically it’s the same ownership over 29 years but it’s like night and day since John Angelos took control.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Technically it’s the same ownership over 29 years but it’s like night and day since John Angelos took control.   

I agree since Peter stepped back the player development side of the organization has done a complete 180, but we're still seeing the same frugalness when it comes to payroll.

Even signing Adley or Gunnar to an early contract extension would be a start and show the team is committed to investing in their players.

[tabletop]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Technically it’s the same ownership over 29 years but it’s like night and day since John Angelos took control.   

That’s true. Peter was incompetent but at least spent some money to try and win. John is only interested in maximizing profits.

[sportsfan8703]

Do people remember actually watching the games this past season?  Bradish was a completely different pitcher once he was called back up.  He was throwing upper 90's with a wipeout slider.  I don't see how that regresses?  I think it's a good example of the organization adjusting/changing/maximizing his pitch mix.  What's he going to do?  All of a sudden go back to his old pitch mix?  I don't believe so.  Look at the Game Logs from July 29th on,

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=bradiky01&t=p&year=2022

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, tabletop said:

That’s true. Peter was incompetent but at least spent some money to try and win. John is only interested in maximizing profits.

He seems to care about his wife's music career.

I guess one of us should have hooked him up with a baseball fan.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He seems to care about his wife's music career.

I guess one of us should have hooked him up with a baseball fan.

Funny stuff, as usual.  John had the sense to hire a baseball man and let him have full control.   Before all of the predictable negativity the franchise was in the best position overall, in a very long time.  Still is but you wouldn’t know it from this board.