Poll: Do you like the Adam Frazier signing?

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You can keep saying it like it's a fact, but until we see otherwise, how they handled Odor even after the team was a contender is how they will operate going forward.

Could the Orioles learn from there mistake after an offseason of analysis, sure. But I imagine the same analysts came up with replacing Odor with Frazier, so personally, I'm going to question the analysis.

Either way, what we know by how Elias handled his starting lineups while the team was in contention is that he will run out out his veteran acquisitions over prospects. He did it with Odor over Vavra and he did it with Aguilar over Stowers. 

The fact that he never found a better second base option throughout the year in 2021, told me either he was unable to find one, did not think Vavra was the answer, and he thinks a lot of Veteranosity. 

But honestly, we know where we stand on all of this. I'm fine with moving on.

 

You keep saying the opposite as it’s a fact. Fair enough.  

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Uh, no? 

They are both coming off very poor offensive performances in 2022 that were ~20% below league average. That is a 100% valid and pertinent data point when comparing Odor and Frazier.

You ignored all the other aspects of their game. 

[Just Regular]

I voted Yes because I'm an Orioles fan and like when the tool of $$$ is used to push replacement level players away from the field.    Sorry, Terrin Vavra.

Its rare to plan to lose 100 games 4 straight years, and good when that's over.    It warps perspective when that comes with a 4-year PR plan every prospect is the latest and greatest gift to baseball - even Keith Law is gaga for Joey Ortiz.

I like Jordan Westburg (even have him on my roto team, so yeah - interested in him getting reps), but think 2023 and rest of career WAR Ramon Urias v. Adam Frazier is probably a toss-up.     Maybe he's the problem.

Frazier might be washed up, but I don't understand zooming in on impact metrics when he's a contact hitter.   Knuckleball pitchers have crappy fastballs.    The Savant metrics reflecting his carrying skills - K%, Whiff%, OAA - were intact last year.

Rich Dauer was slow.    Brandon Drury is a linebacker, and BAL traditionally and currently values gloves more than slugging.   To be Raysian is to be in the business of run prevention.   

If we don't acquire a pitcher better than Michael Lorenzen or Jordan Lyles before Sarasota for about $8mm dollars, I might vote No in the next poll.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Cut, no. Benched more yes. 

Ok, so you agree he continues to get playing time.

What does benched more mean? How many starts a week do you expect out of the gate and how many would you expect in that scenario?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

You ignored all the other aspects of their game. 

Frazier plays better defense, Odor hits more HRs, and they were both significantly below average offensive performers last year.

Happy now?

[eddie83]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t care how you feel. You can choose to feel anyway you want. I just think it’s dumb.

Whether or not Frazier stops them from being a playoff team is irrelevant. Of course he won’t stop that. Almost no cases of any single player stopping you from that goal would exist. That isn’t and never has been anyone’s argument or anything even close to that.

Ok. So basically you are furious that a team trying to get to the playoffs has added someone who will not significantly impact their playoff odds. This isn’t benching Adley for Chirinos. We agree. 
 

Meanwhile we have a rotation full of what ifs that could have a wide ranging level of production. That’s my concern. 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok, so you agree he continues to get playing time.

What does benched more mean? How many starts a week do you expect out of the gate and how many would you expect in that scenario?

Obviously would depend on who is still on roster. If Urias is still here and health on infield he plays very little.

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Frazier plays better defense, Odor hits more HRs, and they were both significantly below average offensive performers last year.

Happy now?

Yes. Plus Frazier gets on base better and can play the OF. I’m happy. 

[Number5]

I admire the passion that many of you have.  Maybe I'm just getting old, but I just can't get excited about this one way or the other.  Ask me if I like the signing, and my answer is "Meh."  Ask me if I dislike the signing, and my answer is "Meh."  For me, a third choice of "Meh" would be my vote.

At first blush, I thought $8 million seemed a bit high, but not in a crazy way.  He did make $8 million last year, and if a one-year $8 million signing breaks the team's back financially, there isn't much hope for the team anyway.  So, for me, the terms of the deal aren't a big deal.

It was hard for me to see the real need for this player, as it seemed to me we looked pretty set in the infield.  Then I saw that he also plays outfield and I thought, maybe as a super utility type that plays quite a bit between 2B and LF.  Almost like a Zobrist, with obviously less offense.  But I don't know.  The guy has certainly been a solid pro in his career, but the actual need for him for the Orioles just wasn't real clear to me.  Still isn't.  Some have opined that perhaps it's a precursor to a trade, and that makes a bit of sense.  I guess we will have to wait and see.

Oh well, I'm still at "Meh."

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

No such thing as a bad one year deal…

Well…. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Ok. So basically you are furious that a team trying to get to the playoffs has added someone who will not significantly impact their playoff odds. This isn’t benching Adley for Chirinos. We agree. 
 

Meanwhile we have a rotation full of what ifs that could have a wide ranging level of production. That’s my concern. 

Well, first of all, I’m not furious.  I’m discussing the merits of a baseball move and why I hate it.

Secondly, the limited impact to the team isn’t my concern. I have already said I wouldn’t be shocked if he bounces back. I have already said even if he was good in 2022 I still wouldn’t want him.  
 

I have a huge problem with the thought process and the decision. That bothers me. It bothers me that this team has proven that they will stick to vets not performing well because of leadership, perceived good defense, etc..All of that is wrong. The whole thought process to making this decision is wrong.  
 

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Yes. Plus Frazier gets on base better and can play the OF. I’m happy. 

He can’t stand in the OF with an OFers glove. That doesn’t mean he’s a capable OFer.

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Frazier being poor is more credible because of the stats and advanced metrics.

I think we need to be clear.  Nobody knows whether Frazier will rebound (and by how much), stagnate, or deteriorate further.   There’s only probabilities.  

Per ZiPS, Frazier’s median projection is a significant but not full rebound, to 91 OPS+ and 1.8 fWAR.   That projection has taken into account the batted ball metrics, etc.   So based on that (and Steamer/Marcel), I believe it is more probable than not that Frazier will have some degree of rebound.  But it’s not a certainty.  ZIPS also says there’s a 30% chance that Frazier will be stagnant or worse in 2023.   That’s not negligible.   There’s also a 20% chance he’s a 3+ fWAR player.   That’s not negligible either.  Neither of those outcomes would shock me.   
 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

You keep saying the opposite as it’s a fact. Fair enough.  

Actually, I only called what they've done a fact, not how they will move forward. What I said was that we have to go off how they've operated in the past as the expected way they will move forward to otherwise proven differently. 

I even said perhaps they will learn. But at the end of the day, Elias did not spend $8 million to sit Frazier on the bench.

Saying that, Elias could change how he operates in 2023 and beyond as legitimate prospects show they are ready. But so far, besides Rutschman and Henderson, two obvious immediate everyday plays, he has not shown the willingness to play prospects over his vets of choice even while the team is in contention for a wildcard and the veterans were failing.

Now he has paid a veteran to play over Westburg at 2B. Now maybe the team doesn't like Westburg's defense enough to play him there everyday (I disagree because I think his bat would outweigh his defensive limitations and while he was inconsistent, he's not that bad at 2B) or maybe they plan to trade him? 

Either way, I think Elias has shown a preference to play veterans or at least his acquisitions even when he went against the stats and metrics and signed them anyways (We were all wondering why he signed Odor at the time but most thought it was just a depth signing more then he was going to be the everyday 2B, and no one thought Aguilar was necessary).

Until he does something otherwise, Elias believes his system of analysis is better then conventional thinking. In the case of Odor and Aguilar and Phillips to a much lesser extent, he was wrong.

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

He can’t stand in the OF with an OFers glove. That doesn’t mean he’s a capable OFer.

Can he play out there at all? Yes. Can Odor?  No.  
 

By the way. He can stand in the OF with an OFers glove. That’s what OFers do.