Connolly on Mullins value

[Sports Guy]

Pretty good article by Dan Connolly on Mullins.  A few interesting tidbits:

https://theathletic.com/4019969/2022/12/21/orioles-cedric-mullins-value-soared/?source=user_shared_article
 

I took an informal poll of big-league scouts recently (none involved with the Orioles or Mets): Money being equal, I asked, who would you rather have, Nimmo or Mullins? Two said Nimmo, two said Mullins and two said they’d flip a coin (but Mullins if forced).

 

One was adamant Nimmo has a distinct edge based on a better floor, more career consistency and more sustainable skills such as a high on-base percentage. Another said it was a no-brainer for Mullins because, “he’s a better center fielder, steals bases and has more power.”

That scout said all Mullins needs to do is stay healthy and maintain his numbers from 2022 and he’ll get Nimmo money or more as a free agent for 2026, because teams will pay for a consistent power-speed combo.

He’d surely be up for an extension. Mullins just got married, and that’s traditionally a good time to talk about security with a young player. He has three more seasons with a team that should be on the rise. And no player wants to leave his original organization, all things being equal.

Most important, the Orioles want Mullins around to patrol center field. According to a source with knowledge of the situation, the club hasn’t shopped Mullins this winter and appears highly unlikely to trade him because he embodies the team’s current blueprint for success: High-quality and high-character homegrown players.

[Sports Guy]

This article is about his value and how it comes to Nimmo And how Mullins May cost at least as much as Nimmo did.

[btdart20]

And the blueprint...  and how Mullins fits the team values...  on and off the field...  Lots of nuggets in there.

[Hank Scorpio]

I'm happy for Mullins. I remember when Jones sorta took him under his wing when he was first recalled. 

I guess I underestimated his defensive value a bit. 

[RZNJ]

I like Cedric. He’s 28 with 3 years of service time.  Hopefully, Fabian will develop well and be a strong alternative by OD 2025 and give us options.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I'm happy for Mullins. I remember when Jones sorta took him under his wing when he was first recalled. 

I guess I underestimated his defensive value a bit. 

Some people dismissed him after one terrible year.  He’s a great story.

[Hazmat]

We should be so lucky that Mullins will maintain this level of value through the end of his contract.  If he does, I think we can expect he will not remain an Oriole come 2026.  Best case scenario is we can trade him prior to the 2025 season and replace him with an internal candidate.

[Frobby]

I’ll just re-post here what I said in the other thread where Connolly’s article was mentioned:

It’s stuff like this that makes Connolly worthless as an analyst.  Nimmo is a much better, more consistent hitter than Mullins.   And, just because the Mets overpaid for him does not mean that Mullins is going to get some king’s ransom when he’s a free agent.  Yes, Mullins is the better defender, but when it comes to getting paid, the bat is king.   

In short, Mullins is a valuable player but the Nimmo contract is irrelevant to his value. 

[Sports Guy]

Let’s just take this column at face value for a moment.

Let’s assume Mullins isn’t available in trade in any realistic scenario.

Let’s also assume the Os view him as a long term building block.

Nimmo turns 30 before the season starts.

Mullins will be 31 for his first free agent season.

Does anyone want to sign Mullins to a long term extension now?  Do you feel his speed and defense will continue to be assets in his early to mid 30s?

I think if you want to keep him for 2023, that’s a defensible position to take. I just can’t fathom any thought of a long term extension for him.

[Jim'sKid26]

He's going to get expensive very quickly. Estimated ARB1 number is $4.4mm. 

I wish he would get on base a bit more but have come to the conclusion that is just not a big part of his game. It does, however, keep him from being an elite leadoff guy.  I'm afraid that his ARB2 and 3 will be numbers that pay him like an elite Leadoff guy. I am not in favor of an extension as I think he doesn't age well.

[interloper]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s just take this column at face value for a moment.

Let’s assume Mullins isn’t available in trade in any realistic scenario.

Let’s also assume the Os view him as a long term building block.

Nimmo turns 30 before the season starts.

Mullins will be 31 for his first free agent season.

Does anyone want to sign Mullins to a long term extension now?  Do you feel his speed and defense will continue to be assets in his early to mid 30s?

I think if you want to keep him for 2023, that’s a defensible position to take. I just can’t fathom any thought of a long term extension for him.

Nah not really. I have to think we will figure out another CF solution by the time he hits FA, and I don't think this FO wants any part of a mid-30s Cedric Mullins. 

I also don't think Mullins and his agent will have any interest in an extension now that buys out a couple FA years, for obvious reasons. 

I don't know if Cowser is the answer in CF, but I hope so. I would mark CF depth as an area of concern currently, but there's some time. Would be great to see someone like Haskin separate himself this year. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by interloper

[eddie83]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s just take this column at face value for a moment.

Let’s assume Mullins isn’t available in trade in any realistic scenario.

Let’s also assume the Os view him as a long term building block.

Nimmo turns 30 before the season starts.

Mullins will be 31 for his first free agent season.

Does anyone want to sign Mullins to a long term extension now?  Do you feel his speed and defense will continue to be assets in his early to mid 30s?

I think if you want to keep him for 2023, that’s a defensible position to take. I just can’t fathom any thought of a long term extension for him.

No way. 

[forphase1]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s just take this column at face value for a moment.

Let’s assume Mullins isn’t available in trade in any realistic scenario.

Let’s also assume the Os view him as a long term building block.

Nimmo turns 30 before the season starts.

Mullins will be 31 for his first free agent season.

Does anyone want to sign Mullins to a long term extension now?  Do you feel his speed and defense will continue to be assets in his early to mid 30s?

I think if you want to keep him for 2023, that’s a defensible position to take. I just can’t fathom any thought of a long term extension for him.

No way do I sign him to an extension now, unless it's EXTREMELY team friendly.  I'm not sold that he's as good offensively as he was in 2022.

[interloper]

Just now, forphase1 said:

No way do I sign him to an extension now, unless it's EXTREMELY team friendly.  I'm not sold that he's as good offensively as he was in 2022.

Which wasn't as good as his 2021. I view 2022 as his baseline, but I wouldn't really argue much against your opinion here. 

[interloper]

A Mullins trade seems likely only when we're ready to flip him prior to free agency in like, 2025. Even if we're contending I think that's a defensible move.