Prepare yourselves for Hosmer

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  Here's a scenario that makes sense to me.   The Orioles are dangling Westburg as a trade piece but feel that Ortiz and Norby need more time in the minors.   Frazier is then a bridge to Ortiz/Norby or again, if Urias/Mateo go in a trade, Frazier could be the safety net/veteran babysitter that helps break Westburg into the majors.

It's possible. But it would seem an awfully big risk to take unless you had that bird in the hand.

Cuz if that deal doesn't (didn't) go through, you've made your problem a LOT worse.

And you've decreased the trade value of the pieces you have, because other GM's are savvy enough to that you're stuck with a surplus that you're going to HAVE to move.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

That seems way premature.  He’s not a prospect at the Rutschman/Henderson level who’s going to play every day the minute he gets promoted.   But it’s not like he sat on the bench every day.  He played in 32 of the final 44 games, including 22 starts.   Remember this team has three pretty good starting outfielders.   Sure he could have played more (and should have IMO), but I’d hardly say that the O’s brass has written him off.   

To say he doesn't still consider him a prospect may be overstatement, but for him to go out and get Phillips and Aguilar during the time we were supposed to be finding out who Stowers was, doesn't show much respect for his skill set.

[deward]

6 hours ago, RZNJ said:

December 30.   Offseason far from over and yet people continually talk like it's March 3.

It's getting late early

[Roll Tide]

Hosmer’s .336 OBP would probably have ranked 3rd on our team last year.

[ThisIsBirdland]

4 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Its about adding WAR. There is a lot of Frazier bashing, but watch him get 2 WAR. He doesn't K a lot, he is better defensively than Vavra. I think if Hosmer is sigend, Vavra goes to AAA or is part of a trade

I think Hosmer fits in well on this roster the more I look into it. He's probably a solid 1 WAR DH/1B. I like a deep bench. Our 13 position players would provide a lot of versatility, quality depth, and should provide positive WAR.

Remember we did give 472 PAs to Odor (-.4 WAR), 220 PAs to Chirinos (.1 WAR), 184 PAs to Tyler Nevin (-.4), 68 PAs to Chris Owings (-.5 WAR), 51 PAs to Jesus Aguilar (-.3 WAR), and 59 PAs to Anthony Bemboom (-.3 WAR). Also can't imagine the combined WAR for the 130+ PAs we collectively gave to Richie Martin, Kelvin Gutierrez, Jonathan Aruaz, Brett Phillips, Rylan Bannon, DJ Steward, and Yusniel Diaz.

All these players combined accounted for 1185 PAs

With the depth we have now, players like the above may never reach our roster again. Below is a quick depth chart after a Hosmer signing.

C- Rutchman, McCann

1B- Mountcastle, Hosmer

2B- Urias, Frazier

3B- Henderson, Urias

SS- Mateo, Henderson

LF- Hays, Frazier

CF- Mullins, McKenna

RF- Santander, Stowers

DH- Hosmer, Santander, Rutchman

This strikes me as the best summary of the way the front office currently views the team. They trust veterans more than prospects to fill these roles in pursuing a playoff spot in 2023, and they've clearly shown they don't want to rely on prospects to immediately meet starter level expectations. They probably don't believe Vavra is a contributor they should rely on in 2023, and potentially long-term as well. They don't want to enter spring training assuming Westburg and Ortiz are ready to break camp in a starter capacity. If those guys aren't ready to be starters, they probably shouldn't be relegated to utility roles when they can continue to work in AAA on a regular basis.

Maybe one or all of those guys crush expectations and kill it in spring training, forcing their way into regular at bats on the major league team. That's a great problem to have! But investing $8m in a major league veteran 2B instead of relying on those guys breaking out or even just taking the next step is probably a prudent move.

Fans seem to believe they're only interested in keeping payroll down, but that they should also be playing their cheap prospects instead of veteran stop-gaps. And I get the argument that the money could be reallocated to better players, but can we at least consider the possibility that Elias may fundamentally disagree with the market/contracts some of the SPs got this off-season? That maybe a 3/$63m deal for Bassitt isn't the right allocation when we're still a year away from Henderson and Rodriguez having one full season under their belts? I certainly think ownership is dysfunctional, cheap, a sale is coming, and it all may be impacting the approach to this off-season. But I also don't think the absence of the moves people were hoping for make the 2023 team fall from likely world series contenders to a non playoff team. The rebuild trajectory is strong, and they're exploring modest reinforcements to support playoff aspirations as the next wave of prospects emerge.

[Can_of_corn]

To me the only positive of a Hosmer signing will be a talking point against those who have been making such a big deal about how the O's are worried about clubhouse culture.  Everything I've heard about Hosmer over the years leads me to think he's at best a jerk.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

This strikes me as the best summary of the way the front office currently views the team. They trust veterans more than prospects to fill these roles in pursuing a playoff spot in 2023, and they've clearly shown they don't want to rely on prospects to immediately meet starter level expectations. They probably don't believe Vavra is a contributor they should rely on in 2023, and potentially long-term as well. They don't want to enter spring training assuming Westburg and Ortiz are ready to break camp in a starter capacity. If those guys aren't ready to be starters, they probably shouldn't be relegated to utility roles when they can continue to work in AAA on a regular basis.

Maybe one or all of those guys crush expectations and kill it in spring training, forcing their way into regular at bats on the major league team. That's a great problem to have! But investing $8m in a major league veteran 2B instead of relying on those guys breaking out or even just taking the next step is probably a prudent move.

Fans seem to believe they're only interested in keeping payroll down, but that they should also be playing their cheap prospects instead of veteran stop-gaps. And I get the argument that the money could be reallocated to better players, but can we at least consider the possibility that Elias may fundamentally disagree with the market/contracts some of the SPs got this off-season? That maybe a 3/$63m deal for Bassitt isn't the right allocation when we're still a year away from Henderson and Rodriguez having one full season under their belts? I certainly think ownership is dysfunctional, cheap, a sale is coming, and it all may be impacting the approach to this off-season. But I also don't think the absence of the moves people were hoping for make the 2023 team fall from likely world series contenders to a non playoff team. The rebuild trajectory is strong, and they're exploring modest reinforcements to support playoff aspirations as the next wave of prospects emerge.

He can fundamentally disagree with it all he likes but at the end of the day he has stated his goal is to build a team that can win in the AL East.

You need pitching to do that and since he doesn't want to draft it...

[ThisIsBirdland]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He can fundamentally disagree with it all he likes but at the end of the day he has stated his goal is to build a team that can win in the AL East.

You need pitching to do that and since he doesn't want to draft it...

Is it possible that he actually believed that a Bassitt/Taillon/Eovaldi signing at whatever it would have ultimately cost didn't advance the goal enough this off-season to make it the right move right now? That it would marginally close the gap with the three teams ahead of us but not be as valuable as more major investments down the road? And it's not like they've never spent money historically; they were middle of the pack five years ago, even hitting top 10 in payroll one year IIRC.

Their actions indicate they don't think they're a move or two away from having a high probability of taking the AL East in 2023, and they probably won't deviate from their value assessments on free agents until they feel like they're in a stronger position. My guess is they want to see one more year of maturation from their core, and next year's free agent pitchers market looks very strong. At that point if they won't compete in the long-term impact player market I'll be in full agreement with what seems like the majority of this board.

I recognize how frustrating it is when it seems like we're getting close. It's similar to the rationale for trading Lopez and Mancini last year. People and media were pissed, but would we have had significantly better odds of making the playoffs had we held onto those guys? Based on their August/September performance, we seemingly sold high on both those guys, and it likely didn't significantly alter the Orioles 2022 outcome. Meanwhile they turned those guys into seemingly desirable pitching prospects, offsetting some of the lack of high draft capital. 

[Explosivo]

Hosmer is the perfect guy left on the board to help Mountcastle with a platoon. Play Hosmer at first vs lefties and Ryan vs righties. We are about to go old school with platoons out the ass like the Earl Weaver days. 83 is coming boys. Can you sense it?

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Explosivo said:

Hosmer is the perfect guy left on the board to help Mountcastle with a platoon. Play Hosmer at first vs lefties and Ryan vs righties. We are about to go old school with platoons out the ass like the Earl Weaver days. 83 is coming boys. Can you sense it?

83 was Joe.

[Chelsea_Phil]

I never understood the Joe firing thing. He wins a world Series, and then he is gone. He was fired, right?  How can that be when he won the big enchilada?

[Going Underground]

4 hours ago, Explosivo said:

Hosmer is the perfect guy left on the board to help Mountcastle with a platoon. Play Hosmer at first vs lefties and Ryan vs righties. We are about to go old school with platoons out the ass like the Earl Weaver days. 83 is coming boys. Can you sense 

So Mountcastle is now a platoon player? He was considered last year one of the mainstays of the Orioles. He will get most of the starts since more righties then lefties but still makes that about 107 games started.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

I never understood the Joe firing thing. He wins a world Series, and then he is gone. He was fired, right?  How can that be when he won the big enchilada?

No, he was fired in mid-1985.  After winning 98 games in 1983, the team slipped to 85-77 in 1984.   It was on pace for a similar season in 1985 (29-26) when he was fired.  Expectations were high then.   But Altobelli wasn’t the problem, it turned out.  

[wildcard]

Santander, Stowers, Mountcastle, Adley all have power.  Hosmer does not.

RF - Stowers/Santander

DH - Adley, Stowers/Santander, Mountcastle

1B - Mountcastle

There may be 200 AB at 1B.   Hosmer probably wants way more than 200 AB.     It does not look like a fit from Hosmer's perspective.

[Explosivo]

On the contrary, I think it's best for both players. Hosmer is not an everyday batter. He's older, his back really ended his season on a bad note with a back injury. I think it's best for him to maximize his greatest utility and that's mashing left handed pitching. Mountcastle is still a young player. He had slumps and protecting your asset in that way as well is smart as well. Reducing the work load and stress on young players and setting your lineup up to maximize your chance of winning on each day is how you get the best out of all situations and make it to the playoffs. This lesson works the same way for players like Hays as well. Platoons were commonplace in Orioles lore. I'm excited to see us get back to doing so again. Ford/Dwyer, Shelby/Bumbry, Nolan/Dempsey,  Lowenstein/Roenike baby! I also didn't mean to suggest that Weaver was our manager in 83, only that we won then utilizing concepts he conceived.  

Edited December 31, 2022 by Explosivo
clarification