MLB.com suggests Burnes to Os trade

[emmett16]

47 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Bradish has some of the best stuff in our system. It's not just about his second half, it's about potential and ceiling. I'd like to see Bradish out of that package before pulling the trigger on that deal proposed in the OP's article.

I saw a guy with a straight fast ball, an inconsistent slider, and a below average change & curve who struggled to throw strikes.  He can spin the ball and got a good amount of weak contact, but I’m not gonna give a guy with a 3.5 bb/9 and a 1.42 whip the benefit of the doubt until he proves to me he can throw strikes.  

[HakunaSakata]

25 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I saw a guy with a straight fast ball, an inconsistent slider, and a below average change & curve who struggled to throw strikes.  He can spin the ball and got a good amount of weak contact, but I’m not gonna give a guy with a 3.5 bb/9 and a 1.42 whip the benefit of the doubt until he proves to me he can throw strikes.  

I felt the same way until I took a closer look at his second half numbers. 3.28 ERA, 1.164 WHIP and 65 Ks in 71.1 IP. That'll play. 

[emmett16]

35 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I felt the same way until I took a closer look at his second half numbers. 3.28 ERA, 1.164 WHIP and 65 Ks in 71.1 IP. That'll play. 

I’m inclined to think he got lucky. 

First 1/2 BABIP .396

Second 1/2 BABIP .257

Same control issues in both halves…almost identical.  

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by emmett16

[dystopia]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I saw a guy with a straight fast ball, an inconsistent slider, and a below average change & curve who struggled to throw strikes.  He can spin the ball and got a good amount of weak contact, but I’m not gonna give a guy with a 3.5 bb/9 and a 1.42 whip the benefit of the doubt until he proves to me he can throw strikes.  

Below average curve? Get outta here

[CaptainRedbeard]

Red Sox getting trade interest on Sale and are not looking to move him but are willing to consider. I don’t know if they would be willing to consider moving him in the division, but he could be a good target to gamble on as a #1 who won’t demand a Burnes-level package.

Sale is due $27.5m for two years and has a 2025 $20m option.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Red Sox getting trade interest on Sale and are not looking to move him but are willing to consider. I don’t know if they would be willing to consider moving him in the division, but he could be a good target to gamble on as a #1 who won’t demand a Burnes-level package.

Sale is due $27.5m for two years and has a 2025 $20m option.

The balanced schedule should make intra-division trades much less of a taboo. I wonder what the price for Sale would be.

[waroriole]

14 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Red Sox getting trade interest on Sale and are not looking to move him but are willing to consider. I don’t know if they would be willing to consider moving him in the division, but he could be a good target to gamble on as a #1 who won’t demand a Burnes-level package.

Sale is due $27.5m for two years and has a 2025 $20m option.

Eww definitely not on Sale. He’s 33 now, 34 when the season starts, and hasn’t pitched 50 innings since 2019. May have done it last year but had a little temper tantrum that delayed his return. If the Sox are giving him away and eating some salary, I’d listen. Otherwise, big red flags. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I’m inclined to think he got lucky. 

First 1/2 BABIP .396

Second 1/2 BABIP .257

Same control issues in both halves…almost identical.  

 

Different pitch selection strategy affected the hard contact hit against him. He went to the minors and made adjustments. He changed from a FB/Curve guy to a Sweep slider/High FB guy. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Different pitch selection strategy affected the hard contact hit against him. He went to the minors and made adjustments. He changed from a FB/Curve guy to a Sweep slider/High FB guy. 

I always wonder what the shelf life on the current hot pitch is.

[sportsfan8703]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I always wonder what the shelf life on the current hot pitch is.

Hopefully at least 1.5 seasons or next season isn’t going to be fun. Bradish and Voth both benefitted greatly from it. 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I saw a guy with a straight fast ball, an inconsistent slider, and a below average change & curve who struggled to throw strikes.  He can spin the ball and got a good amount of weak contact, but I’m not gonna give a guy with a 3.5 bb/9 and a 1.42 whip the benefit of the doubt until he proves to me he can throw strikes.  

Thought you were talking about DL Hall. Nope his whip is 1.68 and 4 BB per 9. This is a guy that struggled to pitch 5 in the minors with a 1.45 WHIP and a 5.8 BB per 9. But, many here were giddy about his promotion and dogging other about skepticism that he could be a difference maker in the majors after struggling mightily at AAA. Many wanted him handed a rotation spot LOL.

 

**************BTW, I’m curious if you looked at his 2nd half stats or by the month. As I recall he was pretty dam solid along side of Kremer the last 3rd of the season at very least.

Edited December 25, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I’m inclined to think he got lucky. 

First 1/2 BABIP .396

Second 1/2 BABIP .257

Same control issues in both halves…almost identical.  

 

I do think he got a little lucky when he returned off the IL.  Still, his second half FIP was 3.73.   So, his improvement was more real than not.  I’m hoping for a 3.75-4.00 ERA from Bradish in 2023.   

[CaptainRedbeard]

39 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Eww definitely not on Sale. He’s 33 now, 34 when the season starts, and hasn’t pitched 50 innings since 2019. May have done it last year but had a little temper tantrum that delayed his return. If the Sox are giving him away and eating some salary, I’d listen. Otherwise, big red flags. 

He hasn’t pitched, but his only arm injury was TJ surgery. His only other pitching-related injury was the stress reaction in his ribcage at the start of 2022 - then the broken pinky and broken (non-pitching) wrist.  And he was actually quite durable for years before all that. 

It wouldn’t be without risk and I wouldn’t necessarily want to give up much to get him. What if the price was Jorge Mateo and we hold onto all our key prospects? The Red Sox need a proper SS as they shouldn’t be playing Story there. It could be a nice sell high on Mateo and buy low on Sale.

The key with Mateo is whether they think it’s worthwhile giving Gunnar a shot at SS. I think they should see how that goes considering we have Ortiz on the horizon who can definitely handle the position defensively. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

He hasn’t pitched, but his only arm injury was TJ surgery. His only other pitching-related injury was the stress reaction in his ribcage at the start of 2022 - then the broken pinky and broken (non-pitching) wrist.  And he was actually quite durable for years before all that. 

It wouldn’t be without risk and I wouldn’t necessarily want to give up much to get him. What if the price was Jorge Mateo and we hold onto all our key prospects? The Red Sox need a proper SS as they shouldn’t be playing Story there. It could be a nice sell high on Mateo and buy low on Sale.

The key with Mateo is whether they think it’s worthwhile giving Gunnar a shot at SS. I think they should see how that goes considering we have Ortiz on the horizon who can definitely handle the position defensively. 

I figure they are about three failed physicals from signing Correa.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Below average curve? Get outta here

I stand by my statement.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-arsenal-stats?type=pitcher&pitchType=CUKC&year=2022&team=&min=50