ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle thinks the O’s currently are a 72-win team

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The real improvement comes for Gunnar, Grayson, Stowers, a full year of Adley plus the depth that Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and Hall prove.   The FA acquisition are mostly placeholders.

That’s fine..but nothing is definite. 

[interloper]

I'm sorry, but who? 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

24. Baltimore Orioles

Projected wins: 72.4
Playoff odds: 6%
Title odds: 0% (no change)
Aggression rank: 19
Improvement rank: 8

While I was hoping for a splashy Orioles winter -- Correa! Jacob deGrom! -- I also understood that the team couldn't operate as if last year's playoff contention was a real thing. Well, of course it was real, and it was spectacular. But the Orioles weren't as good as their record. They were a team still in rebuild mode that had an emergent bullpen and saw the ascension of some key young players, including new franchise face Adley Rutschman. Allowing the new young core to coalesce is probably smart, even as Baltimore tries to be opportunistic in the star market going forward. But a real splash would have been fun.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed

Interesting that Doolittle ranks the O’s 8th in improvement.   As he explains: “The ‘improvement’ rank considers the net impact a team's offseason machinations have had on its 2023 outlook. This is a rating on the moves alone, not on the team's overall chances to be better, an assessment that should also consider aging patterns, improvement of young players, regression factors, etc.”

 

That seems a little bearish, and this is coming from someone who is already somewhat bearish on the 2023 Orioles.

My guess is we end up somewhere between 75 and 85 wins if there are no other notable moves before spring training.

[Three Run Homer]

With a little bit of luck, we'll do better than Mr. Doolittle thinks.  

[O's84]

Doolittle... I can't find a better way to describe the O's offseason.

[deward]

I can easily envision a scenario where this predication turns out to be pretty close. I expect significant regression from the pitching staff vs 2022; GrayRod will hopefully help offset some of that, but he'll be limited in innings. Beyond Rodriguez, I don't see much pitching help coming from the farm in 2023 (I don't have high expectations for Hall). So, imagine a year where the pitching falls back to earth, injuries are more of a factor, and Gunnar maybe doesn't light the world on fire in year 1. I could see 72-75 wins. I would consider that more likely than them winning 90 next year.

[Moose Milligan]

One surprise 83 win season and this board got real cocky, real fast.  

As much as a surprise 83 win season was unexpected last year, a surprise 72 win season is certainly also a possibility.  Let's not pretend that there are disappointing teams each year in the MLB and that we could be one of them.

While I like to think we'll be 83 wins or higher, it wouldn't surprise me if we also won 72.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

One surprise 83 win season and this board got real cocky, real fast.  

As much as a surprise 83 win season was unexpected last year, a surprise 72 win season is certainly also a possibility.  Let's not pretend that there are disappointing teams each year in the MLB and that we could be one of them.

While I like to think we'll be 83 wins or higher, it wouldn't surprise me if we also won 72.  

This board is cocky?   Bet you can’t name 5 posters who think this team is a shoe-in for 83 wins or better.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

One surprise 83 win season and this board got real cocky, real fast.  

As much as a surprise 83 win season was unexpected last year, a surprise 72 win season is certainly also a possibility.  Let's not pretend that there are disappointing teams each year in the MLB and that we could be one of them.

While I like to think we'll be 83 wins or higher, it wouldn't surprise me if we also won 72.  

It wouldn’t shock me.   It would bum me out big-time, though.  

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

One surprise 83 win season and this board got real cocky, real fast.  

As much as a surprise 83 win season was unexpected last year, a surprise 72 win season is certainly also a possibility.  Let's not pretend that there are disappointing teams each year in the MLB and that we could be one of them.

While I like to think we'll be 83 wins or higher, it wouldn't surprise me if we also won 72.  

At this point, I think they are a 75-85 win team. So much variance because of the young players.

The problem is they haven’t really improved the team and they blocked some young guys with more upside.

It’s really been an awful offseason. This team was always going to go as far as the existing talent would take them but when you don’t really give them help and give the fans a reason to buy season tickets, that’s really pathetic.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

At this point, I think they are a 75-85 win team. So much variance because of the young players.

The problem is they haven’t really improved the team and they blocked some young guys with more upside.

It’s really been an awful offseason. This team was always going to go as far as the existing talent would take them but when you don’t really give them help and give the fans a reason to buy season tickets, that’s really pathetic.

 

That's a fair assessment on all levels, I agree with all of it.  

[JR Oriole]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

That's a fair assessment on all levels, I agree with all of it.  

Yep, I do too.  

Not sure any team has done less than we have.  Maybe Seattle, but they did extend Rodriguez with a massive contract during the season.  So they should get credit for that.  And they did make the playoffs and knock out the Jays in the process.  

They don't appear interesting in really working much this offseason, so we shouldn't expect them to do anything at all.  If they do, great.  But I wouldn't expect it. I think Moose said it in another thread....it doesn't matter who gets the blame for being cheap.  The reality is "they" are cheap.  And real slow and real scared to commit to anything or anyone.  But I don't see any reason why the expectation of the fans for this team in 2023 should not be to get to the playoffs and at least win a series.  We do not need to continue to give this organization any more free passes or time extensions than we already have.  Get to October and win some games there in 2023.  That is very reasonable at this point in the process.  

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

Yep, I do too.  

Not sure any team has done less than we have.  Maybe Seattle, but they did extend Rodriguez with a massive contract during the season.  So they should get credit for that.  And they did make the playoffs and knock out the Jays in the process.  

They don't appear interesting in really working much this offseason, so we shouldn't expect them to do anything at all.  If they do, great.  But I wouldn't expect it. I think Moose said it in another thread....it doesn't matter who gets the blame for being cheap.  The reality is "they" are cheap.  And real slow and real scared to commit to anything or anyone.  But I don't see any reason why the expectation of the fans for this team in 2023 should not be to get to the playoffs and at least win a series.  We do not need to continue to give this organization any more free passes or time extensions than we already have.  Get to October and win some games there in 2023.  That is very reasonable at this point in the process.  

Honestly, I'd be happier if they'd literally stood pat and not signed Gibson and Frazier this offseason.  I'm alright with Givens and McCann but the other two signings are just dumb.  I'd rather have them not spent that money than spend it how they did.  It's just dumb.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 hours ago, O's84 said:

Doolittle... I can't find a better way to describe the O's offseason.

[BamaOsFan]

As much as I'd love for the Os to improve on 83 wins, I just don't see it with the present lineup. 

The bullpen saved us last year and to expect them to do the same this year is asking a lot.

If Means can come back in June and return to form it's possible. The schedule improves for the O's, but also for everyone else in the AL East.

Can Santander duplicate his numbers? Will Henderson continue to develop to be afront line starter?

Can we avoid serious injuries? There are a lot of unknowns moving forward.

Still a trade for a true durable front line starter is a must IMO for this team to seriously contend for a playoff spot.