Austin Hays vs Ryan Mountcastle

[WietersCorner]

Who will have a higher WAR in 2023? Please add the 'why' in a reply below. I'm curious who the OH is higher on moving forward. I personally think both of these guys underachieved last year and an increase in production can help the team more than any FA bat signing. 

[btdart20]

Mountcastle will have a longer leash and less competition for PAs.  And I like the chances of his rebound more than Hays.

[RZNJ]

Hays had 2.3 to RM 1.3 according to rwar.

fwar had RM at 1.6 to 1.5 for Hays.

Guess it depends which system we use.  I give Hays the edge for 2023 because I give them equal odds of improving, regressing, or staying the same.

[ChosenOne21]

I went with Mountcastle. His batted ball data suggests a pretty significant improvement in outcomes and Hays is a coin flip to spend significant time on the IL. We also have more outfielders fighting for playing time than first basemen

[Frobby]

As RZNJ points out, the answer could be a lot different depending on which flavor of WAR is being used.   I think if rWAR is being used, Hays will be higher.   If it’s fWAR, I’ll go with Mountcastle.  I think think both will improve in 2023, but Mountcastle will improve by more.  

[forphase1]

28 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I went with Mountcastle. His batted ball data suggests a pretty significant improvement in outcomes and Hays is a coin flip to spend significant time on the IL. We also have more outfielders fighting for playing time than first basemen

Yeah this was pretty much my logic on voting for Mountcastle too.

[Pickles]

I went with Hays because the offensive bar is so much lower for him in the OF.  But this is a good proposition, as it could easily go either way.

[oriole]

I went with Hays because of his defensive value and Mountcastle seems to get worse every year and doesn’t play 1B all that well. There also seems to be a concerted effort to have a left handed counterpart at 1B or a plan B in case the Mountcastle trend of getting worse every year continues. That sounds like a short leash to me

[jamalshw]

If each would get the same number of games played, the answer would be Hays for me due to defensive value. That said, I don't think that happens and Hays will get less ABs. As the roster is constructed now, there really isn't much protection for Mountcastle. He'll get to play basically everyday. Maybe Westburg gets time at 1B in AAA and comes up and plays more 1B than anything else if Mountcastle really struggles. But otherwise, on the roster the main backups at 1B would be Rutschman and McCann and I don't think they will want Rutschman in the field on his "off" days from catching and he'll be at DH instead. As for McCann, unless his offense bounces back in a big way, it would be a significant downgrade offensively at a position that is typically offensively driven. Of course, Mountcastle will get the occasional day off, but as the roster is constructed, it won't be many. 

I do hope we see Stowers and/or Santander taking grounders at 1B and maybe sneaking into a spring game or two at the position, but don't see either of them playing 1B on much more than an emergency basis either. 

As for Hays, the OF figures to start the year as Hays, Mullins and Stowers with Santander the DH, but there's also Cowser who will need ABs. I also figure Frazier and Vavra could see OF at-bats along with McKenna. If Westburg or Ortiz come up and earn the 2B job, that pushes Frazier likely to the OF and could displace Hays. 

In short, Hays has more value than Mountcastle given his defense, but Mountcastle will have the longer leash with less alternatives available for him and thus will get more playing time and that will result in a better WAR...maybe. 

[Yardball85]

Good question and good post.  I went with Mountcastle because I think he is more likely to improve on last year's numbers, though Hays' defense makes it a lot closer.

[sportsfan8703]

Two examples of why we can’t just go Willy Nilly dealing away Cowser, Mayo, Westburg, and Norby. 
 

I think Mountcastle bounces back. Hays looked so terrible after his blazing start. I think the wall got into Mountcastle and Mancini’s heads. I think the anti shift will benefit Mountcastle more and hopefully encourage him to change his overall approach. 

[owknows]

Both will improve.

Mountcastle slightly more than Hays.

Imagine getting 3 WAR out of both of them, and then adding Cowser and Westburg to the mix at 2 WAR each.

If Adley, Gunnar, and Santander just stay the same they could be pretty amazing.

With even modest improvement from the starters this could be a 90+ win team.

[btdart20]

55 minutes ago, owknows said:

Both will improve.

Mountcastle slightly more than Hays.

Imagine getting 3 WAR out of both of them, and then adding Cowser and Westburg to the mix at 2 WAR each.

If Adley, Gunnar, and Santander just stay the same they could be pretty amazing.

With even modest improvement from the starters this could be a 90+ win team.

Agreed.  I think we’ll have a formidable offense in 2023.

[banks703]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Two examples of why we can’t just go Willy Nilly dealing away Cowser, Mayo, Westburg, and Norby. 
 

I think Mountcastle bounces back. Hays looked so terrible after his blazing start. I think the wall got into Mountcastle and Mancini’s heads. I think the anti shift will benefit Mountcastle more and hopefully encourage him to change his overall approach. 

 

For Hays, the hand/wrist seems to correlate directly with when he cooled and then went on to struggle through the the remainder of the year. Personally, I thought he should have remained on the IL for longer given his level of fragility. I think that with Cowser being closer to ready and Frazier's ability to play a COF spot, should AH need time, he will have the luxury of more of it. I don't think that they are as desperate for him in the lineup as years passed. Not to mention, Stowers and Santander's primary positions being in the outfield will allow them to fill in out there should it be needed. Lots of options to cover for guys when they miss time and Hays misses as much as anyone. 

 

My heart wants to see AH play a full, healthy season and be the one who ends up with more value at the end of 2023 but my head says that given the other guys and their ability to play COF spots, how unlucky RM was in 2022, the shift adjustment and another year of experience under his belt, Mountcastle will end up with the higher value, regardless of publication. That's my thought. 

 

I think Mountcastle is going to put up a monster year. Sadly I could see Hays losing his grip on being one of the best nine.

Edited December 27, 2022 by banks703

[now]

Mountcastle, on age alone (25.9 vs. Hays 27.5). Still approaching peak, vs. past peak.