Is the Orioles evaluation process for bounce back players "sophisticated"?

[Yardball85]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How about we try a method of just acquiring  good players and not worry about trying to find someone that we can fix?

A simple, yet innovative solution! (One I have been clamoring for all offseason) 

[Can_of_corn]

I think the O's are no longer behind other teams.

I don't think they are necessarily ahead of other teams.

I think it is a lot easier to catch up then it is pull ahead.

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

I agree with this, but even Lyles is somewhat of a category 2 guy since the team had no intentions to be good last year and his purpose was solely to eat innings and be nice to the younger guys. Yes, he was (relatively) expensive, but I don't think Elias was going to be fussed about whether his ERA was under 5.

Lyles also wasn’t really “bouncing back” from anything.  He set a career high for IP in 2021 and his ERA+ of 86 that year was slightly above his then-career average of 82.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Odor at league minimum counts as a guy they clearly thought would bounce back?  Nah.  I don't buy it.

 

So they signed Odor expecting him to be a -0.4 WAR guy? If so, then they have a whole other problem in the warehouse.

[Frobby]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

So they signed Odor expecting him to be a -0.4 WAR guy? If so, then they have a whole other problem in the warehouse.

Veteranosity!

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Veteranosity!

Which is (as we have previously established) inversely proportional to OBP.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I want to be real clear about the context of what I said:

 “I think the O’s are sophisticated enough to make better judgments than you and I about who is likely to bounce back.  That doesn’t mean they’ll always be correct.”

I didn’t say they were more sophisticated than other teams.  I’m talkIng about you, me, and the other folks who post here.   And if you don’t think they have information we don’t have that factors into their decisions, I just don’t know what to say to that.

 

 

I've been very clear on your thoughts. I told you already I agree that the Orioles probably have additional information that we may not have. Where we differ is you feel they have some exquisite sophisticated evaluation system that makes their decisions beyond questioning while I haven't seen any evidence that is true.

 

[Frobby]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I've been very clear on your thoughts. I told you already I agree that the Orioles probably have additional information that we may not have. Where we differ is you feel they have some exquisite sophisticated evaluation system that makes their decisions beyond questioning while I haven't seen any evidence that is true.

 

I have never remotely said their decisions are beyond questioning. That’s pretty much the opposite of what I’ve said: “I really want to emphasize that just because I believe their decisions are sophisticated doesn’t mean that they will turn out to be right or that I personally agree with them.”

[Tony-OH]

59 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How about we try a method of just acquiring  good players and not worry about trying to find someone that we can fix?

What a novel approach. You would think a team with a good young core would be ready to do just that. But we get Frazier!!!! lol  

 

[JR Oriole]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do think they have good systems.  It also helps to be surrounded by good teammates.  

Agree on this.  The Yankees have literally finished above .500 thirty years in a row.  I get that they have tremendous resources, but we have seen teams with high payrolls fail miserably.  A bad season happens every once in awhile to most every franchise.  The Yankees NEVER have bad seasons.  It is remarkable.  

I think their systems are good, they usually have quality players throughout the roster (which helps everyone), and I think there is an expectation coming to NY that you had better bring your A game or else.  Their fanbase (and their media) is WAY less tolerant than ours and losing is completely unacceptable there.  Matt Carpenter is a great example.  Guy was washed up, and then suddenly effective just because he put those pinstripes on.  I think it all started with Paul O'Neill in 1993.  

[NCRaven]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Where we differ is you feel they have some exquisite sophisticated evaluation system that makes their decisions beyond questioning while I haven't seen any evidence that is true.

 

I don’t believe he ever said any move by Elias was beyond question.  A gross exaggeration of his point of view.

[Frobby]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

What a novel approach. You would think a team with a good young core would be ready to do just that. But we get Frazier!!!! lol  

 

At least when he hits a home run we can say, “Frazier has left the building!”

 

[btdart20]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Lyles also wasn’t really “bouncing back” from anything.  He set a career high for IP in 2021 and his ERA+ of 86 that year was slightly above his then-career average of 82.

We also saw a 30 y/o who came off a season with what looked like neutral luck, near career low BB%, a pretty high strand rate, xERA and FIP higher than his actual 5.15 ERA.  He was/is a guy with pretty erratic outcomes (ERA over the years - 5.36, 5.09, 5.59, 4.33, 5.14, 5.83, 7.75, 4.11, 4.15, 7.02, 5.15, and just posted a 4.42).

Maybe we saw "just a guy" while they saw a more solid floor with a chance at more upside?  

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So they signed Odor expecting him to be a -0.4 WAR guy? If so, then they have a whole other problem in the warehouse.

Did they signed Odor expecting him to be a 1-3 WAR guy?  Nope. 

2021-22 MLB Free Agent Tracker - MLB Trade Rumors

I haven't researched every player, but a cursory glance seems to say a -0.4 WAR looks solid compared to the rest of the sum-$1m FA signings.

The biggest problem in the warehouse comes from outside the warehouse - the budget.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

I don’t believe he ever said any move by Elias was beyond question.  A gross exaggeration of his point of view.

He and several others have stated that they give Elias the benefit of the doubt on his moves because they believe he has additional information and a sophisticated evaluation system. some, maybe not Frobby, but some believe if you even question the all knowing and benevolent Elias you are some a hater or anti-Elias. I've even had someone decide to call my thoughts silly because I dare question his personal savior.

Personally, I think Elias has done a lot of things, but his offseason so far has been pretty darn yech! He treaded water at best so far, but I know that makes me a hater for some of you.

Sorry, I'm not follower, I don't fall for propaganda, and I question everything until I can find out the stats/facts. 

As a fan, I hope Elias/Sig are right in their decisions, but I have last seasons decisions to show they are far from infallible and should be questioned when a move needs to be questioned.

 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

At least when he hits a home run we can say, “Frazier has left the building!”

 

Not going to lie, I feel like that Frazier will bring me more entertainment than the one that will play second base for the Orioles next season.