Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[webbrick2010]

Uncanny how he gives up hard contact on all his pitches no matter where they are located. Hitters must be able to pick up his release very easy. Perhaps they could work on a little deception in his windup

[Es4M11]

I didn't get a chance to see hardly any of Grayson's outings in the minors, and all I ever heard about was this elite pitch mix he possessed. Four above average offerings including a dominating fastball and a great change up was what I was told by so many to expect from him. Where is that stuff?

Can anyone who regularly watched Rodriguez in the minors chime in and compare his stuff now and then? The few times I have watched him pitch this year the movement & execution of his pitches doesn't scream "#1 pitching prospect in baseball" to me.

[Emory Eagle]

Maybe he needs to work on harmonizing his release point, arm angle, "pitch tunneling" etc.  Just seems like, for a guy that throws 97+ consistently, and has a plus change-up, that hitters are way too comfortable in the box.  Too often they are taking hard, aggressive swings, like they know what is coming.  Now, some of that is definitely his poor control (throwing a FB for strike one middle middle isn't going to get it done in the MLB), and his inability to establish his off-speed pitches early in the game (allowing hitters to sit dead red).  But some of it may be that he's tipping his pitches a bit with his mechanics.  In any case, he's clearly got talent, I just hope he can put it together faster than, say, Gausman... 

[Billy F-Face3]

17 minutes ago, Emory Eagle said:

Maybe he needs to work on harmonizing his release point, arm angle, "pitch tunneling" etc.  Just seems like, for a guy that throws 97+ consistently, and has a plus change-up, that hitters are way too comfortable in the box.  Too often they are taking hard, aggressive swings, like they know what is coming.  Now, some of that is definitely his poor control (throwing a FB for strike one middle middle isn't going to get it done in the MLB), and his inability to establish his off-speed pitches early in the game (allowing hitters to sit dead red).  But some of it may be that he's tipping his pitches a bit with his mechanics.  In any case, he's clearly got talent, I just hope he can put it together faster than, say, Gausman... 

I've noticed sometimes he gets working too fast and becomes robotic in his rhythm. It's very easy for hitters to anticipate when the pitch is coming because it's always the same timing when he gets into that mode.

[RZNJ]

His changeup was very consistent in the minors.  He flashes a plus changeup and plus curve and a decent slider but he has absolutely no consistency pitch to pitch.  His fastball velocity has also fluctuated from start to start.  He was 93-95 a few starts ago.  Last night he was 96-99.   Makes me think he’s playing around with arm angles and it’s a mechanical thing.  One lazy but possibly correct theory is that he’s lowered or changed his arm angle since the lat injury whether by accident or purposely.   He certainly does not get on top of the ball as well.  Both his fastball and changeup tend to fade.  His changeup, to my memory, was more of a 12-6 drop in the minors.   

[Sports Guy]

I don’t know where they were before this game but his statcast numbers are pretty ugly.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/grayson-rodriguez-680570?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[Just Regular]

Saturday Manoah will be kind of a struggle bus championship.    Manoah's home ERA up to 8.50 thanks to 5 HR in 18 innings in his first four turns with the new configuration.

I have generally felt during the rebuild Toronto would be the toughest talent core to eventually outplay if Adley gets any division titles.   Right now, the Rays look up and the Jays look down.

The contrast with handling Tampa a week ago is rookies in a nutshell for the zillionth time.    The only way out is through.    

Here's PitchingBot results from yesterday where unsurprisingly Command in the worst 10 of the 88 MLB pitchers who threw yesterday, and Stuff in the Top 10.      He thinks he can truck everybody, which isn't all bad.    Freddy Fermin and Chad Wallach make a nice matching pair of Crash Davises to take him downtown.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=25&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-05-15&enddate=2023-05-15&sort=14,a

[Bemorewins]

57 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Uncanny how he gives up hard contact on all his pitches no matter where they are located. Hitters must be able to pick up his release very easy. Perhaps they could work on a little deception in his windup

That may help. But in general from his very first start through, his location has been pretty poorest. He’s going to have to get much better with his fastball location. He will be fine when he learns how to pitch with his fastball at the top of the zone and just above (like Verlander has done for years). It seems to me that location is his biggest issue, just look at the amount of non-competitive pitches he throws every start. 0-2 count and his pitches either miss by a mile or are middle middle. He seems to have very little ability to pitch to the edges of the zone consistently. That’s going to need to change in order for him to be successful at this level.

[Bemorewins]

43 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

I didn't get a chance to see hardly any of Grayson's outings in the minors, and all I ever heard about was this elite pitch mix he possessed. Four above average offerings including a dominating fastball and a great change up was what I was told by so many to expect from him. Where is that stuff?

Can anyone who regularly watched Rodriguez in the minors chime in and compare his stuff now and then? The few times I have watched him pitch this year the movement & execution of his pitches doesn't scream "#1 pitching prospect in baseball" to me.

I disagree. He has the pitch arsenal to be a number #1. Fastball 96-98, great change up at 83ish, good slider, and a decent curveball. The problem is his location, especially his fast ball location. Look at all of the 0-2 hits surrendered consistently and inability to retire the first runner of the game consistently. If you watch closely a lot of times (especially in 0-2 counts) it’s either pitches thrown middle middle, fastballs at least a foot out of the zone (non-competitive/wasted pitches), or breaking balls that bounce (again mostly non-competitive pitches). 

He has to learn to pitches on the edges of the zone, particularly using his fastball at the top of the zone and just above it. That way, they either swing through or produce weak fly ball contact.

[DirtyBird]

He was sent to AAA out of camp for a reason. People were upset about it, but the decision was correct. He was forced into the rotation without accomplishing in AAA what he was sent there for.

He should go back and Voth or Irvin should take his spot in the rotation.

[Just Regular]

I don't feel minor league hitters ever challenged him to refine the skill of throwing competitive enough chase pitches to compete consistently with MLB Bats.

It was Elias' choice to funnel the talent to these years.    Reserve clause days he maybe has 80 not 8 career starts at this point in his career.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

His changeup was very consistent in the minors.  He flashes a plus changeup and plus curve and a decent slider but he has absolutely no consistency pitch to pitch.  His fastball velocity has also fluctuated from start to start.  He was 93-95 a few starts ago.  Last night he was 96-99.   Makes me think he’s playing around with arm angles and it’s a mechanical thing.  One lazy but possibly correct theory is that he’s lowered or changed his arm angle since the lat injury whether by accident or purposely.   He certainly does not get on top of the ball as well.  Both his fastball and changeup tend to fade.  His changeup, to my memory, was more of a 12-6 drop in the minors.   

This is why he should be sent down.   He is not pitching as well as he did before the injury.   His mechanics are not consistent.  His lack of control has him putting too many pitches in the middle of the plate.    

This is not about learning to pitch in the majors.   Its about being able to control his pitches.

Development is not a straight line for many players.   If he goes down and finds his command he can bring that back to the majors which will help him have success.

Elias has made it clear that winning is the primary goal this year.  Irvin and maybe even Hall if they have their command have better chances to help the team until GRod, who has a high ceiling, straighten out his mechanics and finds his command.

Edited May 16, 2023 by wildcard

[tntoriole]

56 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

I didn't get a chance to see hardly any of Grayson's outings in the minors, and all I ever heard about was this elite pitch mix he possessed. Four above average offerings including a dominating fastball and a great change up was what I was told by so many to expect from him. Where is that stuff?

Can anyone who regularly watched Rodriguez in the minors chime in and compare his stuff now and then? The few times I have watched him pitch this year the movement & execution of his pitches doesn't scream "#1 pitching prospect in baseball" to me.

He does not resemble the pitcher I saw in Bowie and Norfolk.  And it is the loss of changeup command and deception.  Mechanics can be fixed.. he needs fixing 

[Just Regular]

We'll never know but goofing around it would have been a boss move if Hyde in the postgame presser saying he'll make his next start was off script.

Its a known known 32 MLB starts in the regular season are very unlikely, and it will be interesting theater when the time comes whether he'll get a tired arm IL stint or something else.   

[Otter]

1 hour ago, Emory Eagle said:

Maybe he needs to work on harmonizing his release point, arm angle, "pitch tunneling" etc.  Just seems like, for a guy that throws 97+ consistently, and has a plus change-up, that hitters are way too comfortable in the box.  Too often they are taking hard, aggressive swings, like they know what is coming.  Now, some of that is definitely his poor control (throwing a FB for strike one middle middle isn't going to get it done in the MLB), and his inability to establish his off-speed pitches early in the game (allowing hitters to sit dead red).  But some of it may be that he's tipping his pitches a bit with his mechanics.  In any case, he's clearly got talent, I just hope he can put it together faster than, say, Gausman... 

Agreed.  I've said it before too, I suspect he might be tipping pitches.  There are too many times where we see a swing on an offspeed pitch that looks like the hitter knew what was coming.  Especially on curveballs which he doesn't throw much, so it wouldn't really make sense for a hitter to be guessing curve.  Ohtani definitely looked like he was sitting curveball, and I've seen a few others sitting curveball this year.  I remember Ben alluding to it in another game.

Obviously, his command also needs a lot of improvement too.  He's wild within the strike zone too much.  But his stuff is too good for so many hitters to look so comfortable and like they know what's coming.