Fangraphs updated playoff odds

[Frobby]

Saw this on Fangraphs today:

“Here’s the base level: the average error of our win total projections is 7.5 wins, and the median error is 6.5 wins. In other words, if we say that we think your team is going to win 85.5 games, that means that half the time, they’ll win between 79 and 92 games.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-should-you-interpret-our-projected-win-totals/

Not exactly the Oracle of Delphi.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Saw this on Fangraphs today:

“Here’s the base level: the average error of our win total projections is 7.5 wins, and the median error is 6.5 wins. In other words, if we say that we think your team is going to win 85.5 games, that means that half the time, they’ll win between 79 and 92 games.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-should-you-interpret-our-projected-win-totals/

Not exactly the Oracle of Delphi.

 

Aside from the virginity.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Aside from the virginity.

[Tony-OH]

Baseball Reference now has dropped the Orioles down 17% over the last week of making the playoffs down to 31% with 0.1% chance of winning the World Series.

 

Fangraphs have the at 35% and 1% for World Series.

Do with that what you will but thought that was interesting enough to post and follow. Either way, right now the Orioles would be in the playoffs if they started today.

[maybenxtyr]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Baseball Reference now has dropped the Orioles down 17% over the last week of making the playoffs down to 31% with 0.1% chance of winning the World Series.

 

Fangraphs have the at 35% and 1% for World Series.

Do with that what you will but thought that was interesting enough to post and follow. Either way, right now the Orioles would be in the playoffs if they started today.

It's sad to me watching and wondering what exactly the plan is? I know they're not going to win 100 games but as a fan, I can't come up with a good reason why they keep bringing inferior players up to replace inferior players. Whether they bring up some rookies this season or next there could be growing pains. I say get them over now. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

It's sad to me watching and wondering what exactly the plan is? I know they're not going to win 100 games but as a fan, I can't come up with a good reason why they keep bringing inferior players up to replace inferior players. Whether they bring up some rookies this season or next there could be growing pains. I say get them over now. 

It's team control and it's money.  You can get guys like O'Hearn and Hicks for the minimum and keep from starting the clock on the prospects.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's team control and it's money.  You can get guys like O'Hearn and Hicks for the minimum and keep from starting the clock on the prospects.

While I don't think it's everything, I do think that's part of the equation. 

I do wonder if Cowser would have been the answer when Mullins went down if he wasn't injured. Either way, it will be interesting if Cowser and Westburg are brought up once their super-2 points have passed.

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Baseball Reference now has dropped the Orioles down 17% over the last week of making the playoffs down to 31% with 0.1% chance of winning the World Series.

 

Fangraphs have the at 35% and 1% for World Series.

Do with that what you will but thought that was interesting enough to post and follow. Either way, right now the Orioles would be in the playoffs if they started today.

Interesting that Fangraphs has the Blowjays .. currently 4 games back and in 4th , with  almost double our percentage odds of making playoffs.. 65.4 percent  per their”analysis” .. 

 

[Hallas]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Interesting that Fangraphs has the Blowjays .. currently 4 games back and in 4th , with  almost double our percentage odds of making playoffs.. 65.4 percent  per their”analysis” .. 

 

 

I increasingly get the sense that the analysts at Fangraphs believe that some deviations from pythagorean expectation are repeatable (specifically our bullpen) and I think if you were to poll the humans at Fangraphs they would say that 35% is low.  That's not to say that our performance at this point in the season is our "true" talent level, but we haven't been overperforming to the extent that the model thinks.

 

At the end of the day it's a model made by humans, and as informative as models can be, humans aren't infallible.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Hallas

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Interesting that Fangraphs has the Blowjays .. currently 4 games back and in 4th , with  almost double our percentage odds of making playoffs.. 65.4 percent  per their”analysis” .. 

 

What gain would they have to cook the books in the Jays favor?

You think they are trying to get more paid users?

[maybenxtyr]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Interesting that Fangraphs has the Blowjays .. currently 4 games back and in 4th , with  almost double our percentage odds of making playoffs.. 65.4 percent  per their”analysis” .. 

 

Talent generally wins out, especially over 162.

[tntoriole]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What gain would they have to cook the books in the Jays favor?

You think they are trying to get more paid users?

No i just think they are dumb. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

No i just think they are dumb. 

I don't think it's dumb at all to look at the totality of a baseball season and predict that a team you think is superior to another team could overcome a four game deficit in ~100 games.

They might not end up being correct at the end of the day.

The O's are currently at +21 runs, the Jays are at +29.

[Hallas]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it's dumb at all to look at the totality of a baseball season and predict that a team you think is superior to another team could overcome a four game deficit in ~100 games.

They might not end up being correct at the end of the day.

The O's are currently at +21 runs, the Jays are at +29.

I think that their model is far too conservative with regard to updating projections based on current-season performance.  In general I feel like these models are based on high level performance that stabilizes over a long period, and while that might have been useful in years past in the absence of statcast data, ignoring the new data when making projections like this just serves to prop up bad narratives.  For example, the Steamer ROS projection for Cano is a 3.89 ERA with 0.3 WAR.  That's absurd and would have to assume a massive regression in his quality of contact allowed to date.  And Steamer  thinks Manoah is going to bounce back and pitch to a 3.99 ERA the rest of the way.  Again, dicey considering he's not even on the squad.

 

ROS projections should be a little more aware of low-level improvements now that we have the data that can prove it.  It's clear to anyone watching that Cano isn't the pitcher that couldn't hit the side of a barn last season.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Hallas

[Tony-OH]

53 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Interesting that Fangraphs has the Blowjays .. currently 4 games back and in 4th , with  almost double our percentage odds of making playoffs.. 65.4 percent  per their”analysis” .. 

 

Yeah, I don't really understand it.