Jackson Holliday 2023

[Billy F-Face3]

On 8/20/2023 at 7:38 AM, emmett16 said:

Do they?

Ortiz:

.341 (better by .016) / .392 / .540 (better by .008)  / .933

58 runs 

50 RBI

103 Hits

40 XBH (Tweet above is wrong - Holiday has 40 XBH 22 2b 8 3b 10 hr)

10 SB

8 HR

26 BB

 

The statement that Ortiz has better stats is categorically wrong.  

 

With all that said, if they are planning to start him in the OD lineup next year they should bring him up and get him some MLB ABS.  

 

 

You are comparing AA numbers to AAA numbers. There's a difference in opposing skill levels. But I've got good news! You won't have to wait long to see how Jackson does at the AAA level!

[Billy F-Face3]

On 9/1/2023 at 10:49 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Fangraph's piece on minor league shortstop defense.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-watch-some-shortstop-prospects-play-defense/

Bonus Ortiz content.

 

Sounds alot like what I suspected from the very limited fielding I've been able to see from Jackson. Thank you for posting and sharing this.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

You are comparing AA numbers to AAA numbers. There's a difference in opposing skill levels. But I've got good news! You won't have to wait long to see how Jackson does at the AAA level!

Here are some recent OPS numbers from Orioles players who went from AA to AAA in-season:

Stowers 2021 .938/.773

Neustrom 2021 .831/.748

Cowser 2022 1.037/.767

Norby  2022 .960/1.123

Westburg 2022 .817/.869

Henderson 2022 1.025/.894

Ortiz 2022 .792/.967

Kjerstad 2023 .960/.886

Mayo 2023 1.026/.864

Prieto 2023 .882/.836

First of all, just stand back and admire the barrage of offensive talent that’s been bubbling through the upper levels of our minor league system the last three years.

Second, of the 10 players listed, 7 had a drop in their numbers when they moved up a level, but absolutely none of them did poorly in their initial Norfolk run.  All were at least solid, and some didn’t skip a beat.

Now obviously, none of them were 19 when they reached Norfolk, and none started the year in low A.   But I’d still say, based on our recent experience, that I expect Holliday to be at least solid in AAA the remaining three weeks.

 

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Hallas said:

That's totally fair.  I wonder what his throws were clocked at.  If it's like 70-72 (or even 75) right now, he may not be able to improve it enough to play short.  If it's like 78-80 or more, then he probably can at least be passable.

 

I don't think the position scarcity matters too much anyway as long as he remains at 2b/3b/SS/CF.  The positional adjustment between SS and the other 3 positions is only .008-.009 of wOBA over 700 plate apparences.  Even if he does not improve on his current arm strength he will probably be an above average defender at 2nd and I don't think that would detract from his #1 overall prospect ranking.  If you're ranking Holliday against prospects from other years, it might affect his FV number, so he might end up at a 65 overall, instead of 70 or 80 (80 is unlikely anyway) but his age and batting performance compared to other eligible prospects make him the clear #1 overall IMO.  If he can stick at short that's just icing on the cake.

If scouts and those making the lists felt he was only a second baseman, I don’t think he’s first on the list and I don’t think Elias chooses him with the #1 pick.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If scouts and those making the lists felt he was only a second baseman, I don’t think he’s first on the list and I don’t think Elias chooses him with the #1 pick.

God, you are stubborn sometimes.  Yes, Holliday will be capable of being a major league shortstop.  THAT DOESN’T MEAN HE’LL BE THE BEST OPYION AT SHORTSTOP ON THIS PARTICULAR TEAM!  Why is that so hard to understand?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

God, you are stubborn sometimes.  Yes, Holliday will be capable of being a major league shortstop.  THAT DOESN’T MEAN HE’LL BE THE BEST OPYION AT SHORTSTOP ON THIS PARTICULAR TEAM!  Why is that so hard to understand?

And you aren’t understanding what I’m saying. Either understand what I’m saying or perhaps not comment.

[emmett16]

8 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

You are comparing AA numbers to AAA numbers. There's a difference in opposing skill levels. But I've got good news! You won't have to wait long to see how Jackson does at the AAA level!

I wasn’t making a comparison between the too.  I was responding to a post that stated Ortiz stats this year are better.  They are not.  

[ChuckS]

No need to force Holliday into the short stop position when Gunnar is playing so well over there and has the better arm.

I like the idea of grooming him as a second baseman at this point. Nothing wrong with having an elite defensive second baseman with a HOF level bat. 

That’s a double play combination to dream about. 

[baltfan]

8 hours ago, Hallas said:

That's totally fair.  I wonder what his throws were clocked at.  If it's like 70-72 (or even 75) right now, he may not be able to improve it enough to play short.  If it's like 78-80 or more, then he probably can at least be passable.

 

I don't think the position scarcity matters too much anyway as long as he remains at 2b/3b/SS/CF.  The positional adjustment between SS and the other 3 positions is only .008-.009 of wOBA over 700 plate apparences.  Even if he does not improve on his current arm strength he will probably be an above average defender at 2nd and I don't think that would detract from his #1 overall prospect ranking.  If you're ranking Holliday against prospects from other years, it might affect his FV number, so he might end up at a 65 overall, instead of 70 or 80 (80 is unlikely anyway) but his age and batting performance compared to other eligible prospects make him the clear #1 overall IMO.  If he can stick at short that's just icing on the cake.

There is no chance he is throwing in the low 70s. Probably half the kids on a decent varsity team have that level of arm. 

[ChuckS]

54 minutes ago, baltfan said:

There is no chance he is throwing in the low 70s. Probably half the kids on a decent varsity team have that level of arm. 

Yea, I’m thinking even Mountcastle can get it up to 75+.  I would guess 80+ is needed to even play on the left side of the infield in the big leagues. 

[TopGunnar]

7 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Yea, I’m thinking even Mountcastle can get it up to 75+.  I would guess 80+ is needed to even play on the left side of the infield in the big leagues. 

I would imagine Mountcastle throws somewhere in the 90-95 range. These are big leaguers. Everybody has a great arm

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Yea, I’m thinking even Mountcastle can get it up to 75+.  I would guess 80+ is needed to even play on the left side of the infield in the big leagues. 

I suggest you look at this.   RMC does not too 75, along with several other 1B.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Frobby

[baltfan]

46 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

I would imagine Mountcastle throws somewhere in the 90-95 range. These are big leaguers. Everybody has a great arm

Ryan Mountcastle Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com | baseballsavant.com

It says his max this year is 67 mph.  But he plays first.  When he used to be in the outfield it was 86 mph.  The true max as an infielder is likely somewhere inbetween.

[fansince71]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I suggest you look at this.   RMC does not too 75, along with several other 1B.

Ryan McKenna  has a better arm than Manny Machado

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, Hallas said:

That's totally fair.  I wonder what his throws were clocked at.  If it's like 70-72 (or even 75) right now, he may not be able to improve it enough to play short.  If it's like 78-80 or more, then he probably can at least be passable.

 

I don't think the position scarcity matters too much anyway as long as he remains at 2b/3b/SS/CF.  The positional adjustment between SS and the other 3 positions is only .008-.009 of wOBA over 700 plate apparences.  Even if he does not improve on his current arm strength he will probably be an above average defender at 2nd and I don't think that would detract from his #1 overall prospect ranking.  If you're ranking Holliday against prospects from other years, it might affect his FV number, so he might end up at a 65 overall, instead of 70 or 80 (80 is unlikely anyway) but his age and batting performance compared to other eligible prospects make him the clear #1 overall IMO.  If he can stick at short that's just icing on the cake.

The average arm strength for major league SSs this year is 85 MPH (Mateo is at 85 this year). I don't have the numbers on Holliday, but the eye test tells me he's lower than that. Now can he have a quick release and be like Anthony Volpe who has been rated as an above average SS by every defensive metric despite having a well below average arm (81 MPH avg, 87.3 max), perhaps. 

As I've said, I will not discount him playing SS at the major league level since he has very good athleticism and quickness and at 6-0, 185, should not out grow the position. There are some hands things he needs to clean up, but so did Henderson his hands have gotten better with professional experience.