Cade Povich 2023

[e16bball]

On the heels of a big “pump up” story from MLB.com about how he’s impressing in spring training, Povich pitched two scoreless innings this afternoon — yielding only one single (erased in a DP) and striking out three.
 

Pretty exciting outing for the kid. Wonder how much he could reasonably move up his timeline by pitching lights out this year?

Edited February 27, 2023 by e16bball

[emmett16]

16 minutes ago, e16bball said:

On the heels of a big “pump up” story from MLB.com about how he’s impressing in spring training, Povich pitched two scoreless innings this afternoon — yielding only one single (erased in a DP) and striking out three.
 

Pretty exciting outing for the kid. Wonder how much he could reasonably move up his timeline by pitching lights out this year?

He’s going to start in AA.  If he’s lights out all year he has a chance to make his debut this year. 

[nvpacchi]

Cade Povich threw 30 pitches yesterday picking up 3 Ks and only giving up 1 hit in the process.

The best part is statcast data was available for this game, so we are able to dive into his pitch mix a little bit.

He threw what statcast classified as five different pitches:

4 seam (8), sinker (8), slider (6), change (5), curve (3)

Interestingly his four seam got more vertical movement than his sinker, but it looks like his location was all over the place, maybe statcast had a challenging time discerning his fastballs (especially in such a small sample).

Obviously there's very little to go off now.  But two questions do arise that will be interesting to look at going forward:

1. does he have a fastball and a sinker? or does the data ultimately end up normalizing on one pitch? 94 MPH average on the sinker with pretty good movement. the 4 seam velo wasn't there yesterday, but you have to imagine he'd be able to throw the 4 seamer with the same juice. Is there enough separation on the two pitches to make it worthwhile having both?  Or if his command is good enough, can he just thrive on working the 4 seam up to match with that curve that breaks out of the zone.

2. Is he a 2 breaking pitch guy with the curve slider?

The spins rates are meh at first glance.  It is probably expected on the curve which has so much drop b/c it is thrown so slow and is really "Chris Bassity" if it all goes well.

But the slider, had meh spin, but look like it couples good horiz and vertical movement so far.

Obviously the sample sizes are far too small to discern anything of real use, but it presents some good questions to ask this spring and if we're fortunate enough to get statcast data at all in his minor league stints.

 

I just assumed he was a fastball/curve/change guy (not really following him too closely last year after the trade). But it is encouraging that he has a few different opportunities arsenal wise to turn into a good pitcher, and of course it would be great if everything broke right and all is pitches turned into useful offereings.

[interloper]

Impressive performance yesterday, sounded like. In control and throwing relatively hard for a lefty with his frame. I'm pretty excited about this kid. After Grayson and Hall, he's right in the next tier with the injured Seth Johnson. 

Put it this way... he already has command, good fastball velocity, and a nice slider. The Orioles development can absolutely work with that set of skills and really get the most out of him.

[nvpacchi]

7 hours ago, interloper said:

Impressive performance yesterday, sounded like. In control and throwing relatively hard for a lefty with his frame. I'm pretty excited about this kid. After Grayson and Hall, he's right in the next tier with the injured Seth Johnson. 

Put it this way... he already has command, good fastball velocity, and a nice slider. The Orioles development can absolutely work with that set of skills and really get the most out of him.

it's nice to already see him hit 94 in early spring, with next to no game action. Fangraphs has a wide range on him sitting btwn 86 and 92, and still had him as a 45 future prospect.  but if he can start sitting 92 and 94 and top out at 97 with that command and 2 different fastballs potentially!  sign me up

[Just Regular]

If Povich is good in the 1st half, he's clearly for me in this fall's mix.    How deep into games will they let him go?

I'm fascinated to watch how Clubs this decade curate fastball zip, or whatever other pitch nastiness dials that can be turned up with Rest.     10 years into his career - does Grayson have 1750 or 1400 innings?

Here's Corbin Burnes last two years, where in Year 2 he threw marginal innings 167-202 (the bum cost his team the playoffs, I have heard tell).

2021 - 657 Batters Faced, 234 K, 34 BB, K-BB% = 30

2022 - 797 Batters Faced, 243 K, 51 BB, K-BB% = 24

Delta - 140 Batters Faced, 9 K, 17 BB, K-BB% = -5

Just gotta get Darwinzon Hernandez right for a few 10-day stretches here and there.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Just Regular

[CaptainRedbeard]

9 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

Cade Povich threw 30 pitches yesterday picking up 3 Ks and only giving up 1 hit in the process.

The best part is statcast data was available for this game, so we are able to dive into his pitch mix a little bit.

He threw what statcast classified as five different pitches:

4 seam (8), sinker (8), slider (6), change (5), curve (3)

Interestingly his four seam got more vertical movement than his sinker, but it looks like his location was all over the place, maybe statcast had a challenging time discerning his fastballs (especially in such a small sample).

Obviously there's very little to go off now.  But two questions do arise that will be interesting to look at going forward:

1. does he have a fastball and a sinker? or does the data ultimately end up normalizing on one pitch? 94 MPH average on the sinker with pretty good movement. the 4 seam velo wasn't there yesterday, but you have to imagine he'd be able to throw the 4 seamer with the same juice. Is there enough separation on the two pitches to make it worthwhile having both?  Or if his command is good enough, can he just thrive on working the 4 seam up to match with that curve that breaks out of the zone.

2. Is he a 2 breaking pitch guy with the curve slider?

The spins rates are meh at first glance.  It is probably expected on the curve which has so much drop b/c it is thrown so slow and is really "Chris Bassity" if it all goes well.

But the slider, had meh spin, but look like it couples good horiz and vertical movement so far.

Obviously the sample sizes are far too small to discern anything of real use, but it presents some good questions to ask this spring and if we're fortunate enough to get statcast data at all in his minor league stints.

 

I just assumed he was a fastball/curve/change guy (not really following him too closely last year after the trade). But it is encouraging that he has a few different opportunities arsenal wise to turn into a good pitcher, and of course it would be great if everything broke right and all is pitches turned into useful offereings.

This is very interesting - it’s clear there are two groupings of distinct hard offerings that Statcast was having trouble identifying. I’m guessing the top right group was all about 94 mph and actually a 4 seamer (despite a number being classified sinkers) and that middle group classified as 4 seamers (and one slider) was actually sinkers or cutters and about 90 mph. 

Povich was consistently throwing either 94/95 or 89/90 with nothing in between (excluding off speed). Despite the Statcast classifications, it makes more sense if the 94/95 was his 4 seam and the 90/89 was a sinker/cutter. Which if that’s the case and he can actually hit 94 consistently with the 4 seamer, plus another hard offering with something off and more movement AND the quality slider/curve/change, that’s a pretty electric pitch mix. 

[HuskerFan]

Hi O's fans. Long time Husker fan, not much of an MLB fan but do enjoy following our guys after college.  As an Omahan who lives in Sarasota Nov-March, I wanted to share some stuff on Povich.  I'll head back to occasional lurking after this. 

We sat behind, what I believe to be his parents and Agent, in Lakeland Sunday. Povich doesn't have a sinker.  His mix is 4S, CT, CB, SL, CH.  From listening to his Dad & Agent talk, whatever system is used to track pitches isn't accurate.  It's registering his CT as a 4S and even a Sinker. He'd throw a CT, registered at 90.1 as an example only because I can't remember the exact number on the scoreboard but it was logged as a 4S.  Supposedly, according to the Agent, the Manager will correct all data during his post-game reporting.  Regardless, they seemed very upbeat about steady 93-94.  

 

Nothing earth shattering but it was nice seeing a lot of younger guys play. Your system is loaded and I wish you the best. 

[emmett16]

11 hours ago, interloper said:

Impressive performance yesterday, sounded like. In control and throwing relatively hard for a lefty with his frame. I'm pretty excited about this kid. After Grayson and Hall, he's right in the next tier with the injured Seth Johnson. 

Put it this way... he already has command, good fastball velocity, and a nice slider. The Orioles development can absolutely work with that set of skills and really get the most out of him.

I wouldn't say he has command, yet.  He has great control.  He was 3.1 BB9 last year in minors (slightly bigger zone) which was MLB league average.  He excels at changing up his speed with his curve & slider to keep people off balance.  He often pitches backwards.  He hides the ball well and being a tall and long armed it looks like his fastball plays up and can be sneaky.  I really enjoy watching him pitch.  

[LookinUp]

16 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

it's nice to already see him hit 94 in early spring, with next to no game action. Fangraphs has a wide range on him sitting btwn 86 and 92, and still had him as a 45 future prospect.  but if he can start sitting 92 and 94 and top out at 97 with that command and 2 different fastballs potentially!  sign me up

Question for anyone who might know...

Does velo "ramp up?" Can we expect guys in general to gain a couple ticks by, say, May?

Does spin rate ramp up? Same question, essentially.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Question for anyone who might know...

Does velo "ramp up?" Can we expect guys in general to gain a couple ticks by, say, May?

Does spin rate ramp up? Same question, essentially.

There’s very little velo difference between the beginning of the season and later, per Fangraphs (see chart in the middle of the article): https://blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking-down-baseballs-early-velocity-surge/

Postscript to article: final average FB velo for 2022 was 93.9, same as in this article written on 4/20/22.   

Edited February 28, 2023 by Frobby

[CaptainRedbeard]

16 hours ago, HuskerFan said:

Hi O's fans. Long time Husker fan, not much of an MLB fan but do enjoy following our guys after college.  As an Omahan who lives in Sarasota Nov-March, I wanted to share some stuff on Povich.  I'll head back to occasional lurking after this. 

We sat behind, what I believe to be his parents and Agent, in Lakeland Sunday. Povich doesn't have a sinker.  His mix is 4S, CT, CB, SL, CH.  From listening to his Dad & Agent talk, whatever system is used to track pitches isn't accurate.  It's registering his CT as a 4S and even a Sinker. He'd throw a CT, registered at 90.1 as an example only because I can't remember the exact number on the scoreboard but it was logged as a 4S.  Supposedly, according to the Agent, the Manager will correct all data during his post-game reporting.  Regardless, they seemed very upbeat about steady 93-94.  

 

Nothing earth shattering but it was nice seeing a lot of younger guys play. Your system is loaded and I wish you the best. 

Appreciate the report!

The 8 “sinkers” registered by Statcast that were actually 4-seamers averaged 93.9 mph and 2356 spin. That spin rate would have been 127 out of 560 pitchers that threw 4-seamers last year. That’s pretty exciting - if he can maintain that over a full start then it has the makings of a potentially plus pitch.

A 5-pitch mix is impressive as well. Even if the curve ends up more show-me, leaning on the 4 seamer and slider for lefties and the cutter and change for righties is an excellent arsenal. 

[nvpacchi]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Question for anyone who might know...

Does velo "ramp up?" Can we expect guys in general to gain a couple ticks by, say, May?

Does spin rate ramp up? Same question, essentially.

I'd imagine guys aren't going full gas now. I was listening to a podcast and people were encouraged that Spencer Turnbull was already hitting 94 now, which probably equates to a couple ticks more of peak velo once April rolls around.  But he was a TJ guy too.  Still I imagine that the Spring Training velos can be bumped up once the season rolls around.  Logically it jives that guys aren't going all out yet.

Frobby's data lines up with what I found over the last two seasons too. Basically same average velo, the spin ticked up a little bit in 2022, but not egregiously.  I forget when enforcement started on sticky stuff, but impact was probably minimal on fastballs.

 

4 seam data only, averages by month

[LookinUp]

I guess the missing data point is pretty much February or the first 2 weeks of March. I doubt stuff jumps that much, but at the same time I have enough doubt to wonder how much weight to put into the advanced pitch data from the first game of spring training.