Kyle Bradish 2023

[dystopia]

19 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Sure it could.. if he's terrified of letting the ball be put in play then he's pitching to strike out everyone and there's plenty of data that supports that hunting strikeouts leads to pitching more out of the zone which leads to more walks. A good defense behind a pitcher can make a huge difference. 

Look at Bradish's improvements - Walk Rate is down and K% is up. His GB% has increased. EV, Hard Hit% and LD% are up (albeit slightly) from last year but BABIP is down significantly from last year. His defense is making plays behind him. 

 

Regardless of however much a solid defense helps him, it wouldn’t close the gap between him and Bradish, and the 0.2 difference in fWAR between the two this year is a joke. 
 

FWIW Cease has had a high walk rate his whole career, not just this year. 

[dystopia]

22 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I compared early season Grayson with him last season, and him toward the end of his stint at Norfolk, and it looks like he had a slightly different release angle last year compared to early this year, and he reverted back to his old release angle in Norfolk.  I'm guessing the change was to compensate for the injury. It was pretty slight but I think for pitchers, really subtle changes to mechanics can have profound effects.  For example Cano dropped his arm angle by like 2 degrees and his sinker/changeup went from unhittable to meatball.

Great insights. Thanks. 

[Hallas]

Does the development of Bradish change anyone's mind about bringing in a top-shelf starter?  And possibly expending prospect capital for it?

 

To me I can see the argument that it becomes more of a luxury, but I still would like to go for a starter.  Logan Gilbert looks pretty enticing, but it will probably take a serious haul for him.  I feel like Westburg and Hays might be a good package for him.  We can backfill those positions with Cowser/Kjerstad and Holliday/Ortiz, and the Mariners get a pretty nice bump in projected production for 2024 and 2025.  Gilbert as potentially our 3rd best starter going into next season gives us a really good top-3 for the playoffs, assuming Grayson and Bradish both build on their success from this year.  Being able to have a guy like Irvin as a spot starter/long reliever/pick-me-up if someone falls on their face is really nice for a long season.  Your rotation never ends up being what you predict at the beginning of the year.  And we won't have Gibson so we'll have a spot to fill in the rotation.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Hallas

[zweem]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

Does the development of Bradish change anyone's mind about bringing in a top-shelf starter?  And possibly expending prospect capital for it?

 

To me I can see the argument that it becomes more of a luxury, but I still would like to go for a starter.  Logan Gilbert looks pretty enticing, but it will probably take a serious haul for him.  I feel like Westburg and Hays might be a good package for him.  We can backfill those positions with Cowser/Kjerstad and Holliday/Ortiz, and the Mariners get a pretty nice bump in projected production.  Gilbert as potentially our 3rd best starter going into next season gives us a really good top-3 for the playoffs, assuming Grayson and Bradish both build on their success from this year.  Being able to have a guy like Irvin as a spot starter/long reliever/pick-me-up if someone falls on their face is really nice for a long season.  Your rotation never ends up being what you predict at the beginning of the year.  And we won't have Gibson so we'll have a spot to fill in the rotation.

Prefer Skubal--LH and Detroit needs so much--we could send them our "excess" from AAA.  The mariners would be looking for more quality, probably 2 to 3 of our top 10 plus Cowser and a vet bat.  The Tigers would probably take more players but slightly lower quality. Skubal  has already had his TJ and I think is better than Gilbert.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Does the development of Bradish change anyone's mind about bringing in a top-shelf starter?  And possibly expending prospect capital for it?

 

To me I can see the argument that it becomes more of a luxury, but I still would like to go for a starter.  Logan Gilbert looks pretty enticing, but it will probably take a serious haul for him.  I feel like Westburg and Hays might be a good package for him.  We can backfill those positions with Cowser/Kjerstad and Holliday/Ortiz, and the Mariners get a pretty nice bump in projected production for 2024 and 2025.  Gilbert as potentially our 3rd best starter going into next season gives us a really good top-3 for the playoffs, assuming Grayson and Bradish both build on their success from this year.  Being able to have a guy like Irvin as a spot starter/long reliever/pick-me-up if someone falls on their face is really nice for a long season.  Your rotation never ends up being what you predict at the beginning of the year.  And we won't have Gibson so we'll have a spot to fill in the rotation.

Seattle is a contender, they are not trading Gilbert. I would not bother speculating on individual trades as the message board prediction rate is approaching 0%. Maybe at the deadline you will have a chance of success predicting a deal when some of the possibilities have been narrowed down. 

Don't forget Means. That gives us a credible top four plus good options for #5 and depth. 

I could see us going after a Gibson clone for depth and innings-eating. Would Sonny Gray come on a one year deal? 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

Sure it could.. if he's terrified of letting the ball be put in play then he's pitching to strike out everyone and there's plenty of data that supports that hunting strikeouts leads to pitching more out of the zone which leads to more walks. A good defense behind a pitcher can make a huge difference. 

Look at Bradish's improvements - Walk Rate is down and K% is up. His GB% has increased. EV, Hard Hit% and LD% are up (albeit slightly) from last year but BABIP is down significantly from last year. His defense is making plays behind him. 

 

I am not convinced Cease is the right guy for the Orioles, but the White Sox are the type of team we should trade with given their poor player development.  I would also make it a priority to trade with the Guardians as the Rays and Astros have recently fleeced them for Caminero and Diaz.

[DirtyBird]

17 minutes ago, zweem said:

Prefer Skubal--LH and Detroit needs so much--we could send them our "excess" from AAA.  The mariners would be looking for more quality, probably 2 to 3 of our top 10 plus Cowser and a vet bat.  The Tigers would probably take more players but slightly lower quality. Skubal  has already had his TJ and I think is better than Gilbert.

Do people really think our "excess" will land us a pitcher like this in the offseason?

[Hallas]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Do people really think our "excess" will land us a pitcher like this in the offseason?

Westburg has a 2.5 to 3 WAR projection per year on ZIPS and I think that's pretty accurate.  We package another couple players in there and I think it's a pretty solid deal.  These pitchers are good but not worth a #1 overall like Sale was so that takes Holliday off the table.  We can backfill Westburg with Holliday and it's probably an improvement, and it gives Ortiz/Norby a chance to compete for 3rd/UTI with Urias.

[zweem]

13 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Do people really think our "excess" will land us a pitcher like this in the offseason?

Cowser and a few other of our top 10 is not" excess" but the other pieces would be players like Stowers. Detroit needs a lot of pieces and the Mariners would , most likely, be looking for more quality since not in a rebuild.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, he very well may scrap the 4-seamer all together unless they feel it sets up other pitches. The sinker actually has below average movement, but I think it tunnels well with his slider and has late movement which confuses the batters.

Yesterday MLB Network had a month by month graphic of his 4-seam to sinker ratio and before last night this month 4-seam use was down to about 3%.

Savant does show him throwing 20 last night against the Nationals, a lineup without much power.

 

[DirtyBird]

7 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Westburg has a 2.5 to 3 WAR projection per year on ZIPS and I think that's pretty accurate.  We package another couple players in there and I think it's a pretty solid deal.  These pitchers are good but not worth a #1 overall like Sale was so that takes Holliday off the table.  We can backfill Westburg with Holliday and it's probably an improvement, and it gives Ortiz/Norby a chance to compete for 3rd/UTI with Urias.

Detroit played pretty competitive ball as the season progressed. Torkleson improved. They have Colt Keith as a solid infield prospect who will be up next season. Not sure why the would give up a young controllable pitcher, for a package centered around a solid, but unspectacular infielder.

[Hallas]

22 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Seattle is a contender, they are not trading Gilbert. I would not bother speculating on individual trades as the message board prediction rate is approaching 0%. Maybe at the deadline you will have a chance of success predicting a deal when some of the possibilities have been narrowed down. 

Don't forget Means. That gives us a credible top four plus good options for #5 and depth. 

I could see us going after a Gibson clone for depth and innings-eating. Would Sonny Gray come on a one year deal? 

Seattle has some holes the size of the Grand Canyon in their lineup.  They would have to sign some really expensive FAs to fix those holes if they don't want to part with some pitching.  Westburg and Hays is probably net WAR gain for them over the next 2 years even if they replace Gilbert with a AAAA guy, unless Kelenic suddenly learns how to hit.  If they make a splash for Ohtani then they only lose out on pitching for 1 year, while their offense becomes scary.  In 2025 when Ohtani comes back on the mound they're a pretty complete team.  I think it could make sense for them to trade Gilbert.

 

I'm okay wasting time speculating on individual players because it's fun.

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, zweem said:

Detroit needs a lot of pieces ...

And if they traded Skubal, you could add a pitcher to that list of needs.

[Just Regular]

Stuff+, if you segment for 2nd Half, Grayson is 2nd to Bradish among AL Active Roster SP's who are going to the playoffs.     Its looking more and more fair each turn through the rotation to discard 1st Half Grayson results with respect to what he is right now.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al&qual=y&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&rost=1&type=36&month=31&sortcol=12&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

 

 

 

 

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Seattle has some holes the size of the Grand Canyon in their lineup.  They would have to sign some really expensive FAs to fix those holes if they don't want to part with some pitching.  Westburg and Hays is probably net WAR gain for them over the next 2 years even if they replace Gilbert with a AAAA guy, unless Kelenic suddenly learns how to hit.  If they make a splash for Ohtani then they only lose out on pitching for 1 year, while their offense becomes scary.  In 2025 when Ohtani comes back on the mound they're a pretty complete team.  I think it could make sense for them to trade Gilbert.

 

I'm okay wasting time speculating on individual players because it's fun.

Hey, if you nail this one I'll be the first to give you prop! I would venture to say this has zero chance of happening.