Austin Hays 2023

[Frobby]

I noticed today that Hays’ defensive metrics have recovered sigificantly from his poor starts.  Comparison, 18 game mark, 36 game mark (cumulative) and now (cumulative):

Rdrs: -5, -5, 0

UZR: -1.3, -1.4, +.03

I know Hays was at -5 OAA previously, and now he’s at -3.   Keep in mind that OAA doesn’t factor in throwing.   Hays is up to 4 outfield assists, two of which were in the Toronto series.  That’s tied for 6th among major league outfielders.  

Bottom line, Hays had a really bad first week or so defensively, but has played good defense since then.  
 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I noticed today that Hays’ defensive metrics have recovered sigificantly from his poor starts.  Comparison, 18 game mark, 36 game mark (cumulative) and now (cumulative):

Rdrs: -5, -5, 0

UZR: -1.3, -1.4, +.03

I know Hays was at -5 OAA previously, and now he’s at -3.   Keep in mind that OAA doesn’t factor in throwing.   Hays is up to 4 outfield assists, two of which were in the Toronto series.  That’s tied for 6th among major league outfielders.  

Bottom line, Hays had a really bad first week or so defensively, but has played good defense since then.  
 

The reports of his defensive decline have been wildly exaggerated.  

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The reports of his defensive decline have been wildly exaggerated.  

He really was terrible that first week or so, so I understand why people were concerned.  

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The reports of his defensive decline have been wildly exaggerated.  

He was average at best last year too.

It’s a definite trend. He’s nothing special out there although I do agree that the arm does help make up for some things. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He was average at best last year too.

It’s a definite trend. He’s nothing special out there although I do agree that the arm does help make up for some things. 

I think that’s fair enough.   His arm is spectacular and fun to watch.  His range/routes are average at best, though I do think he’s quite sure-handed.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s fair enough.   His arm is spectacular and fun to watch.  His range/routes are average at best, though I do think he’s quite sure-handed.

And iirc, the data showed that he gets poor jumps.

He’s not killing us out there but I don’t view him as an asset either.

That said, if he stays healthy, he should be a good player and a starter on a first division team…but I don’t trust the reliability and even if he is reliable in 2023, I won’t trust him to do it again in 2024.

[Frobby]

Hays had a massively important 2-run double in the 7th tonight to give the O’s the breathing room they desperately needed.   I looked tonight and was surprised to see that Hays hasn’t been very good this year in RISP and high-leverage situations.  That hit tonight was both with RISP and high leverage.  

[Just Regular]

I don't think it is released yet but saw Petriello from MLB/Statcast tease a forthcoming Arm enhancement to OAA that I would guess treats Hays pretty well.

I noticed tonight both hands are bare again.

On the existing Arm Strength leaderboard, Hays is the top Orioles OF, and look at Gunnar Henderson being a rare infielder up among the strongest Arms in the game list mostly populated by outfielders.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength

[baltfan]

Hays and Cano are the only guys on the team having a career year thus far, and Hays has started like this before.  Has to stay healthy. 

[Frobby]

Hays is now leading the team at .861 OPS.   He’s swinging it well right now.  Always a good sign when he hits a HR to RCF.

[Sports Guy]

Meant to say something the other day about this. Hays was on MLB radio the other day and I caught a couple min of it.

He was asked about his season so far and why it’s much better this year. They talked about how his chase rate is down but the slugging is up and how has he been able to do that.

He said that he went back and looked at the first half of last year and saw that his mechanics were good but in the second half they weren’t. 
 

Surprisingly, he didn’t mention anything about any injuries from last year (maybe didn’t want to make excuses?) but he did say his mechanics were off.

 

 

[SpOkane]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Meant to say something the other day about this. Hays was on MLB radio the other day and I caught a couple min of it.

He was asked about his season so far and why it’s much better this year. They talked about how his chase rate is down but the slugging is up and how has he been able to do that.

He said that he went back and looked at the first half of last year and saw that his mechanics were good but in the second half they weren’t. 
 

Surprisingly, he didn’t mention anything about any injuries from last year (maybe didn’t want to make excuses?) but he did say his mechanics were off.

 

 

Sounds like something the hitting coaches should have noticed sometime las season.

[OriolesMagic83]

.861 OPS.  Not bad for a 4th or 5th OF.

[Aristotelian]

I did not see this coming from Hays. I was ready to trade him at a discount to make room for Cowser. Definitely got this one wrong. Will be interesting how Elias plays Hays/Santander as Cowser and Kjerstad arrive. 

[baltfan]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I did not see this coming from Hays. I was ready to trade him at a discount to make room for Cowser. Definitely got this one wrong. Will be interesting how Elias plays Hays/Santander as Cowser and Kjerstad arrive. 

Hays' issue is always staying healthy.    Let's see how it goes.  He got off to a fast start last year as well.