Adam Frazier 2023

[NCRaven]

53 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

On top of it, and maybe most shockingly, his spring speed has fallen to 25.7 ft/sec putting him in the 22nd percentile in MLB. For contrast, Santander is 25.8 ft/sec and James McCann is 25.4. 

But wait until you see his summer speed.  It's incredible.  No...it's better than that.

 

[Pickles]

Just now, interloper said:

Kind of agree. Doesn't seem to be impacting his 2B defense, which is fine if unspectacular. Has 4 stolen bases which is obviously based more on good timing than pure speed. I don't really see his sprint speed as a big deal because he plays 2B and we don't need him to be fast. I just want him to get on base, which he's struggling with currently. That's the bigger concern. 

JJ Hardy was slow and he was a GG shortstop.  Frazier is plenty fast enough out there at 2b.  Where it would affect him would be in the outfield.  But I don't see him getting too much time in the outfield, save for the occasional spot start in a small corner outfield- i.e RF at Camden, LF in Bos.

[BohKnowsBmore]

48 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Since the All-Star break of 2021, Frazier has now slashed .246/.309/.319/.628 over 911 PAs. His foot speed has gone from 27.1 ft/sec (53 percentile) to 25.7 (22nd percentile). 

But hey, he doesn't strike out much.

Any idea how long Sprint Speed takes to stabilize? 

Over the past three years, his home-to-first times have been in the low 4.4's (Frazier currently doesn't have enough data points to generate a 2023 HP to 1st number). If you look at the sprint speed leaderboard, everyone in the 25.7 sprint speed neighborhood (Frazier at #244) has a HP to 1st number WAY above that (those with data points at this time, at least). 

Frazier has 22 "competitive runs" at this point, so wondering if there may be some variance in current values.

In case anyone is wondering how sprint speed is calculated:

Quote

 

Definition
Introduced during the 2017 season, Sprint Speed is a Statcast metric that aims to more precisely quantify speed by measuring how many feet per second a player runs in his fastest one-second window.

In 2018, the metric was updated for hitters/runners to include the top home-to-first times as well as the previously qualified two-base runs, in an attempt to include more useful information and get to a meaningful number more quickly.

Currently, the metric includes "qualified runs" from these two categories:

• Runs of two bases or more on non-homers, excluding runs from second base when an extra-base hit happens.
• Home-to-first runs on "topped" or "weakly hit" balls.

The best of these runs, approximately two-thirds, are averaged for a player's seasonal average.

Any run with a Sprint Speed of at least 30 ft/sec is known as a Bolt.

 

 

[Spy Fox]

I don't think they'll stick with Frazier as much as they stuck with Odor if his performance is bad. If it's Memorial Day, he's doing poorly, and others that could take his PAs are performing well, I think he'll start to see pretty reduced playing time. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

I don't think they'll stick with Frazier as much as they stuck with Odor if his performance is bad. If it's Memorial Day, he's doing poorly, and others that could take his PAs are performing well, I think he'll start to see pretty reduced playing time. 

Will be interesting to see how much of a factor money plays. Elias had no issue optioning Irvin despite trading a nice prospect for him, but Irvin is pretty cheap and the club has more time to work with him with the extra years of control. 

[Spy Fox]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

Will be interesting to see how much of a factor money plays. Elias had no issue optioning Irvin despite trading a nice prospect for him, but Irvin is pretty cheap and the club has more time to work with him with the extra years of control. 

Yeah, I could be wrong, but I don't think they're going to sunk-cost-fallacy themselves too badly on this if Frazier is struggling after a couple months and there are younger players knocking on the door. 

Depends on a bunch of things, including whether or not they trade an infielder. But if it's June, Frazier is having a bad year so far, Urias/Mateo/Henderson are all doing their thing, and one of Westburg/Ortiz/Stowers/Cowser has earned a starting spot? I predict they'll do the smart thing and relegate Frazier to more of a reserve role. 

[jabba72]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Since the All-Star break of 2021, Frazier has now slashed .246/.309/.319/.628 over 911 PAs. His foot speed has gone from 27.1 ft/sec (53 percentile) to 25.7 (22nd percentile). 

But hey, he doesn't strike out much.

No this isnt good at all. Lets hope one of the infielders really goes on a burner in AAA and forces Elias hand. Because its starting to look like age related decline with Frazier.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

This cherry pick really bugs me. Frazier had a bad 5-6 weeks after the all star break.  He closed the year with an .802 OPS in September.  He had a .779 OPS for the year.  To act like “the second half of 2021” marked some turning point for him is extremely misleading given that he had a strong September.  Either count all of 2021, or none of it, but don’t give me this “post all star break” crap.  

As to 2023, Frazier has been worth 0.3 rWAR in 17 games.  That’s a 2.9 rWAR pace.  I can’t say he’s hitting well right this minute, but that’s going to be true of several guys at any given moment.  

Mind you, I wasn’t in favor of the signing and I have no idea how good or bad he’ll be over a longer stretch of games.  I just think the arguments about his 2021 performance are misleading, and that it’s too soon to know much about 2023.   

 

Lol, cherry pick. It was a legitimate place to grab a point since people do 1st half/2nd half all the time. If anyone is cherry picking it's you in your failed attempt to try and support him and the signing. Not liking where I picked is ridiculous. I didn't start it at a slump in the middle of a month but after the All-star break. I never said he wasn't good for stretch since then, I merely pointed out his stats since then. Just because they don't fit your narrative does not make them any less true.

As for your WAR numbers, give me a break. What's his WAR look like after the Red sox series? Taking WAR now and trying to extrapolate out is utterly ridiculous. You are too smart to play this game and clearly you are just trying to play devil's advocate against my stats based, argument of truths.

Nothing I said was false. Every stat was true and on point. I pointed out the truths and then I restated my OPINION that Ortiz or Westburg would be better. But every single stat I put down was true, including his fallen foot speed. 

None of us know how he'll play going forward (Probably better then he's played since the Boston series) but he has not played well since the Boston series. Whether you like it or not does not change the truth. I'm not claiming victory, I'm just saying that so far, outside of one series, Frazier has not been good.

You did nothing to prove me wrong or anything else other than to get all Karen on us because you didn't like where I started my stat breakdown. He did slash that over his last 911 PAs. You can go cherry pick some weeks here and there or maybe a month or two all you like, it will not change the statistical evidence I provided. 

 

 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Any idea how long Sprint Speed takes to stabilize? 

Over the past three years, his home-to-first times have been in the low 4.4's (Frazier currently doesn't have enough data points to generate a 2023 HP to 1st number). If you look at the sprint speed leaderboard, everyone in the 25.7 sprint speed neighborhood (Frazier at #244) has a HP to 1st number WAY above that (those with data points at this time, at least). 

Frazier has 22 "competitive runs" at this point, so wondering if there may be some variance in current values.

In case anyone is wondering how sprint speed is calculated:

 

It could very well normalize upwards, I really don't know. At the end of the day, it was another data point that I used this offseason to show of his decline and why signing a declining 30-soemthing player is no a smart activity, especially when your farm system literally has three possible replacement and your major league team had one (Urias). 

At the end of the day, let's say he's a mild improvement over Odor (not a high bar to get over). Who cares? Anyone that says that, do they really think Ortiz or Westburg or even Norby wouldn't be an upgrade over Odor either? 

I know we're beating that horse again, but so far, Frazier has done nothing to prove the naysayers wrong besides one good series. Trust me, I'd rather be wrong and see him do well, but I still MUCH rather of had Ortiz or Westburg taking everyday 2b reps this season and I think the team would be better.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Will be interesting to see how much of a factor money plays. Elias had no issue optioning Irvin despite trading a nice prospect for him, but Irvin is pretty cheap and the club has more time to work with him with the extra years of control. 

Yeah, I don't think Irvin is a goo player to point towards. Irvin only makes $737,600 this year only $17,600 over major league minimum. Frazier is the 2nd highest paid player (Not counting McCann since most of that is picked up by the Mets) on the team. 

I can't see Elias admitting failure on Frazier for quite some time due to his salary. Certainly not before July. 

Now could he come up with an "injury" if he's really struggling before then. Possible. 

Let's hope he turns it around because I'd rather have Pickles running victory laps with "That's why we signed the man!" and the Orioles win, vs him continue to be bad and the Orioles lose more because of not going with a better option. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'd still prefer Westburg/Ortiz at 2nd base but Frazier hasn't been as awful as Odor was...which is an incredibly low bar, but Odor was good for striking out 2-3 times a game.  Frazier, even though he makes outs, will at least make contact and try to put the pressure on the defense.  He is getting on base at a .328 clip and he's walked 7 times already.  Odor walked 32 times last year.

So, it's an upgrade so far but I'm not sure if it's worth the 7.2 million more than what Odor was paid last year.  And I'm confident that Westburg/Ortiz could provide whatever Frazier is doing, except standing in the lefthanded batters box.

Now I'm gonna duck outta here for a few before Tony tears my head off for saying something that could be construed as positive about Adam Frazier.  

[foxfield]

59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Lol, cherry pick. It was a legitimate place to grab a point since people do 1st half/2nd half all the time. If anyone is cherry picking it's you in your failed attempt to try and support him and the signing. Not liking where I picked is ridiculous. I didn't start it at a slump in the middle of a month but after the All-star break. I never said he wasn't good for stretch since then, I merely pointed out his stats since then. Just because they don't fit your narrative does not make them any less true.

As for your WAR numbers, give me a break. What's his WAR look like after the Red sox series? Taking WAR now and trying to extrapolate out is utterly ridiculous. You are too smart to play this game and clearly you are just trying to play devil's advocate against my stats based, argument of truths.

Nothing I said was false. Every stat was true and on point. I pointed out the truths and then I restated my OPINION that Ortiz or Westburg would be better. But every single stat I put down was true, including his fallen foot speed. 

None of us know how he'll play going forward (Probably better then he's played since the Boston series) but he has not played well since the Boston series. Whether you like it or not does not change the truth. I'm not claiming victory, I'm just saying that so far, outside of one series, Frazier has not been good.

You did nothing to prove me wrong or anything else other than to get all Karen on us because you didn't like where I started my stat breakdown. He did slash that over his last 911 PAs. You can go cherry pick some weeks here and there or maybe a month or two all you like, it will not change the statistical evidence I provided. 

 

 

 

 

 

[spleen1015]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Lol, cherry pick. It was a legitimate place to grab a point since people do 1st half/2nd half all the time. If anyone is cherry picking it's you in your failed attempt to try and support him and the signing. Not liking where I picked is ridiculous. I didn't start it at a slump in the middle of a month but after the All-star break. I never said he wasn't good for stretch since then, I merely pointed out his stats since then. Just because they don't fit your narrative does not make them any less true.

As for your WAR numbers, give me a break. What's his WAR look like after the Red sox series? Taking WAR now and trying to extrapolate out is utterly ridiculous. You are too smart to play this game and clearly you are just trying to play devil's advocate against my stats based, argument of truths.

Nothing I said was false. Every stat was true and on point. I pointed out the truths and then I restated my OPINION that Ortiz or Westburg would be better. But every single stat I put down was true, including his fallen foot speed. 

None of us know how he'll play going forward (Probably better then he's played since the Boston series) but he has not played well since the Boston series. Whether you like it or not does not change the truth. I'm not claiming victory, I'm just saying that so far, outside of one series, Frazier has not been good.

You did nothing to prove me wrong or anything else other than to get all Karen on us because you didn't like where I started my stat breakdown. He did slash that over his last 911 PAs. You can go cherry pick some weeks here and there or maybe a month or two all you like, it will not change the statistical evidence I provided. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah. Frobby's not the Karen in this argument.

[interloper]

Sheesh. 

[owknows]

man...  tough room.