Umpire Scorecard Thread

[Bahama O's Fan]

All this does for me and should do for MLB is push the need for roboumps. 

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, justD said:

Just to clarify, +31 and -5  are the number of runs 'given' or 'taken away' for the overall season as a result of missed calls?

If so, the numbers seem pretty significant, especially for NYY and CLE

Is there any calculation that equates runs with wins to see about how many extra wins the Yankees have been gifted by umpires this year? 31 extra runs feels like it would correspond to 6-8 extra wins but I have no idea how the math would come out.  

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I don't think there's anything subconscious about it. Umpires know that if they make a bad call against the Yankees Boone will go balrog, and it'll be the top story on every sports cast and social media site for the next 48 hours. So umps just give them most of the close calls to avoid the hassle. 

Marmol is #1 in ejections in the NL but that doesn't seem to be doing them any good in umpire bias. Vogt just got his first ejection arguing a balk call on 8/9 so it appears a mild mannered manager can still get the umps on their side. 

[Malike]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yep, that's what they mean.   Umpire subconscious bias, or catcher framing skills?   You decide.

I think it has less to do with framing and more to do with umpires who are not good at their jobs.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Austin Wells and Jose Trevino are the #3 and #4 best pitch framers in all of baseball. The two of them have saved 19 runs (Catcher Framing Runs).

Adley? #48

McCann? #50

Adley and McCann are worth -9 runs. That's a 28 run swing. If you believe 10 runs = 1 win, that's basically a 3 win difference between the teams just on framing alone.

That explains it all to me. 

But that’s a fait accomplis.  If the umpires give the Yankees pitchers the calls, the catchers will get credited with good framing whether they did anything or not.   So like I said, is it good framing, or bias?

Now, I’ll say this: Ump Scorecard breaks down whether it’s the hitters or the pitchers who are getting the breaks.   For the Yankees, their hitters are +3.2 while their pitchers are +27.5.   If it was just pro-Yankee bias, you’d expect both their hitters and pitchers would be getting the calls to roughly the same extent.   So, the fact that the Yankees pitchers are much more favored than their hitters suggests that framing is a big factor.  

By the way, the O’s batters are -7.1 and the pitchers are +2.2.   But remember, umpires favor pitchers generally.  The median team score is roughly +5 for pitchers and -5 for batters. So, Yankees pitchers do about 22 runs better than an average team, and the batters do 8 runs better, when it comes to getting calls.   

The O’s batters are -7.1 (about 2 runs worse than average) and pitchers are +2.2 (3 runs worse than average).

 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Is there any calculation that equates runs with wins to see about how many extra wins the Yankees have been gifted by umpires this year? 31 extra runs feels like it would correspond to 6-8 extra wins but I have no idea how the math would come out.  

Very roughly, 10 runs = 1 win.  So, 3 wins.  But obviously, not all runs are created equal when it comes to impacting a specific game.  Some games are close and a bad call can heavily influence the outcome, other games aren’t close at all and a bad call is inconsequential even if it leads to some runs.  

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But that’s a fait accomplis.  If the umpires give the Yankees pitchers the calls, the catchers will get credited with good framing whether they did anything or not.   So like I said, is it good framing, or bias?

Now, I’ll say this: Ump Scorecard breaks down whether it’s the hitters or the pitchers who are getting the breaks.   For the Yankees, their hitters are +3.2 while their pitchers are +27.5.   If it was just pro-Yankee bias, you’d expect both their hitters and pitchers would be getting the calls to roughly the same extent.   So, the fact that the Yankees pitchers are much more favored than their hitters suggests that framing is a big factor.  

By the way, the O’s batters are -7.1 and the pitchers are +2.2.   But remember, umpires favor pitchers generally.  The median team score is roughly +5 for pitchers and -5 for batters. So, Yankees pitchers do about 22 runs better than an average team, and the batters do 8 runs better, when it comes to getting calls.   

The O’s batters are -7.1 (about 2 runs worse than average) and pitchers are +2.2 (3 runs worse than average).

 

Read the room, Frob.  People just want to believe that the Yankees get calls that benefit them.

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Read the room, Frob.  People just want to believe that the Yankees get calls that benefit them.

The facts say that the Yankees DO get calls that benefit them. The question being asked is why. Is it random chance or design? Over the last four years the Yankees are averaging +18 runs gifted them by home plate umpires. To put that in perspective only two teams (one of them the Yankees of course) out of thirty have been gifted that many runs this season. To average that kind of benefit over a four year span is extraordinary I would think.  

The best year for the Orioles was a +4 runs in 2023, but we averaged -9 runs total over four years.