Coby Mayo 2023

[baltfan]

17 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I have a feeling Mayo is not going to be in the O's system after the trade deadline. 

He is going nowhere.  You don’t move upside guys like that for anyone currently on the market.  Follow the Dodgers’ method.  Look at the types of pieces they generally sent in all but the biggest of their trades. 

[Just Regular]

He's now leapfrogged 1-1 Henry Davis as well as Kjerstad for the Eastern League wRC+ lead.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=5&stats=bat&qual=y&type=1&team=&season=2023&seasonEnd=2023&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,1

Mayo 12.10.2001

Davis 9.21.1999

Kjerstad 2.12.1999

[Can_of_corn]

Davis is in the majors now.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

I have a feeling Mayo is not going to be in the O's system after the trade deadline. 

No one should be untouchable but Mayo should be in the group with Holliday as a piece that is highly unlikely to be traded and likely no one available is worth giving him up for.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, jabba72 said:

 

"And Coby Mayo ... just hit that one to the moon, it's gone!" - Curve announcer in the most matter of fact way!

This kid is tapping into his game power now. This is why age vs level is so important when looking at players upsides. He's almost always been on of the youngest players in his league and he produced and this year it's starting to come together, just when you expect it to.

Let's not forget, had he gone to college, he'd be sitting at home right now ready to be drafted and most likely in the top few picks of the draft. I haven't looked at the players in this draft as I focus my attention on the minors mostly outside of the Orioles themselves, but I have to imagine a 6-4, 230 pound 3B who would have torn up college baseball would be getting Kris Bryant comps and most likely be going in the first few picks if not the first overall pick.

This was an excellent scouting job by the Orioles that went all the way to Latin American scouts Geraldo Cabrera, the Orioles’ Latin American supervisor, and Rafael Belén, one of the organization’s Puerto Rico scouts who saw Mayo in a tournament in Puerto Rico in November 2019 prior to COVID.

The Balitmore Sun reported: “Best player at the event,” Cabrera wrote then in a scouting report. “This kid has a tremendous body and ceiling. Looks like big leaguer Kris Bryant. Plus raw power. … I love this guy.” Belén added that he was a “can’t-miss prospect.”

Koby Perez then email Brad Ciolek on Mayo and was told they were aware of him but it was certainly great to hear more scouts liked him. Brandon Verley, who was reassigned to Florida after being Adley Rutschman's scout in the Northwest, then saw Mayo that spring and noted he had some things that needed to be fixed in his swing but could see the tools. 

Mayo then closed the door in zoom sessions during COVID by impressing the Orioles about how quickly he wanted to be in the major leagues (21 years old) and how he's willing to do whatever it took to get there.

Obviously you can see the adjustments he's already made between last year and this year in AA, and while he's not going to see the major leagues by 21, he's well on his way to being on the cusp of the major leagues by 2024. 

 

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's not forget, had he gone to college, he'd be sitting at home right now ready to be drafted and most likely in the top few picks of the draft. I haven't looked at the players in this draft as I focus my attention on the minors mostly outside of the Orioles themselves, but I have to imagine a 6-4, 230 pound 3B who would have torn up college baseball would be getting Kris Bryant comps and most likely be going in the first few picks if not the first overall pick.

He might be in Omaha - he shared on Ryan Ripken's podcast he was a Florida commit, and they are still going.

It will be fun this offseason to watch list makers try and slot him vs. say Dylan Crews, who I believe is the Torkelson/Henry Davis top bat type guy this draft.   

Ben likes to say Gunnar could still be at Auburn, but that one I think is a little bit of a fakeout as he would be a senior by now.     

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

He might be in Omaha - he shared on Ryan Ripken's podcast he was a Florida commit, and they are still going.

It will be fun this offseason to watch list makers try and slot him vs. say Dylan Crews, who I believe is the Torkelson/Henry Davis top bat type guy this draft.   

Ben likes to say Gunnar could still be at Auburn, but that one I think is a little bit of a fakeout as he would be a senior by now.     

Henderson would have been the number one overall pick last year had he gone to college and improved like he did with the Orioles. So it's not really that far off to suggest that the Orioles have drafted two potential number one overall pick out of high school in Henderson (2nd round overslot ($2.3 mil), and Mayo 5th rd overslot ($1.7). So basically for $4 million they got two more 1:1 caliber guys.

Pretty, pretty good if you ask me.

[btdart20]

Interesting to see the Tork comp here too.  I had posted this in another thread mostly from a hype perspective before seeing it here.  @Tony-OH interesting to see your 1.1 comments above because that's the difference in the hype.  

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

That's probably part of the reason why.  I suspect a bigger part is that he just missed some big data filters to keep him hidden to some degree (less than 20 HR last year and sub-.800 OPS).  This year is his breakout though.  A lot of people are talking about him.  

Looking at Torkelson's AA stats (age 21), I like Mayo's better.  I'm excited to see what the next year holds for Mayo (and Cowser, Kjerstad, Grayson, Westburg, Ortiz, Povich, McDermott, Basallo, Jackson, Fabian, Beavers...).

31 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Here's the difference I see in them:  I do think Mayo's stance/load helps him hit off-speed/breaking balls better than what Torkelson does.  Tork was promoted so fast he never had to adjust/learn to hit off-speed/breaking balls.  

Lift off! 

[baltfan]

Another thing to the Orioles credit is that it seems they have let Mayo do what continues to work for him.  The really spread out, no stride would have been altered by some teams.  

[Tony-OH]

57 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Interesting to see the Tork comp here too.  I had posted this in another thread mostly from a hype perspective before seeing it here.  @Tony-OH interesting to see your 1.1 comments above because that's the difference in the hype.  

Lift off! 

Torkelson is an interesting comp because he was the 1-1 pick and it's hard to argue that Mayo is not a better overall player than Torkelson was at the same age (Mayo is four months younger than Torkelson at their same playing age year).

Some people jumped off the Mayo wagon last year and some were slow to get on his wagon nationally. Even around here, there were doubters who mentioned things like an inability to hit low pitches and his lackluster stats at Bowie last year (At 20!!). 

What were now seeing from Mayo is a little like we saw from Henderson where things just clicked and he took off from a toolsy nice prospect to a guy most people thought was at least a top 2 or 3 prospect in all of baseball.

Now is he on a heater who did something just click? The only way we'll know is over time, but it's pretty clear that at 21-years old, he's become a very, very good prospect and my mind, is a MOO prospect who will end up a very good defensive 1st baseman but who could play 3B now if needed (clearly not a need for the Orioles right now unless trades happen).

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Torkelson is an interesting comp because he was the 1-1 pick and it's hard to argue that Mayo is not a better overall player than Torkelson was at the same age (Mayo is four months younger than Torkelson at their same playing age year).

Some people jumped off the Mayo wagon last year and some were slow to get on his wagon nationally. Even around here, there were doubters who mentioned things like an inability to hit low pitches and his lackluster stats at Bowie last year (At 20!!). 

What were now seeing from Mayo is a little like we saw from Henderson where things just clicked and he took off from a toolsy nice prospect to a guy most people thought was at least a top 2 or 3 prospect in all of baseball.

Now is he on a heater who did something just click? The only way we'll know is over time, but it's pretty clear that at 21-years old, he's become a very, very good prospect and my mind, is a MOO prospect who will end up a very good defensive 1st baseman but who could play 3B now if needed (clearly not a need for the Orioles right now unless trades happen).

Like you, I have been aggressive with my personal Mayo ranking with relation to everyone else.

With Holiday being #1 and assuming GRod isn’t eligible anymore, who is your #2 right now…Mayo or Cowser?  Is there anyone else for you in consideration for the top 3?

[Hank Scorpio]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Henderson would have been the number one overall pick last year had he gone to college and improved like he did with the Orioles. So it's not really that far off to suggest that the Orioles have drafted two potential number one overall pick out of high school in Henderson (2nd round overslot ($2.3 mil), and Mayo 5th rd overslot ($1.7). So basically for $4 million they got two more 1:1 caliber guys.

Pretty, pretty good if you ask me.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

It’s pretty crazy to think about it that way but it’s pretty accurate. What Elias is doing is really special.

[LTO's]

1. Holliday

2. Mayo

3. Kjerstad 

4. Cowser

Mayo is reaching untouchable status for me in a trade. They'd have to really get a haul of players with some years of control left for me to move him at this point. Kjerstad is another that I'd have to be blown away to move. I'd be ok with anyone else being traded this deadline. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

1. Holliday

2. Mayo

3. Kjerstad 

4. Cowser

Mayo is reaching untouchable status for me in a trade. They'd have to really get a haul of players with some years of control left for me to move him at this point. Kjerstad is another that I'd have to be blown away to move. I'd be ok with anyone else being traded this deadline. 

Kjerstad over Cowser is a really interesting debate.  Cowser likely has the edge because of defense but I think it’s worthy of a discussion.