Adley Rutschman BB/K Watch

[Can_of_corn]

31 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

It's totally recency bias and eye test, but he may be one of the best players I've ever seen.

And (collective) we were robbed of a year plus so he could "earn it.

[backdoorslider]

22 minutes ago, waroriole said:

He’s a free agent after 2027. 

That's right. I forgot this his 2nd place ROY finish changes things. Well the lost year of team control does change the calculations and implications a little bit. Still got basically 2 entire years left of Adley pre arb left though. This is definitely something to think about but, for the time being he's a cheap Orioles player. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

It's totally recency bias and eye test, but he may be one of the best players I've ever seen. 

 

Manny is an awesome player and a superstar, but the skill set is just different with Adley.

 

I meant best player to come through the system in Baltimore.

Agreed, you get the feeling we are looking at a truly generational player. 210 OPS+ playing elite catcher. He does pretty much everything Manny did except without the strikeouts and occasional slumps. He may hit fewer homers? But he has elite bat speed and power. Currently #3 on the fWAR leaderboard. Already has 4-hit and 5-hit games, a walk off homer, and +46% win expectancy go ahead double. Too early to start talking MVP consideration?

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

It's totally recency bias and eye test, but he may be one of the best players I've ever seen. 

 

Manny is an awesome player and a superstar, but the skill set is just different with Adley.

 

I meant best player to come through the system in Baltimore.

Joe Mauer's highest OPS+ in a season was 171. Piazza, 185. Posey's highest 171.

AR's OPS+ at 210 right now.

AR's on a completely different level than any catcher right now. 

[Moose Milligan]

He’s what I thought Wieters was gonna be. 

[Fiver6565]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

He’s what I thought Wieters was gonna be. 

I think might be more than what we thought Wieters was going to be, which is saying a lot!

[waroriole]

21 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Joe Mauer's highest OPS+ in a season was 171. Piazza, 185. Posey's highest 171.

AR's OPS+ at 210 right now.

AR's on a completely different level than any catcher right now. 

Dude it’s 14 games. 

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

Dude it’s 14 games. 

And what a 14 games its been. Unreal when you think about it. 

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He’s what I thought Wieters was gonna be. 

The moment I actually saw Wieters, I didn’t think he would come close to the hype.

Complete opposite for Adley. 
 

They are night and day.

I was completely astounded by Wieters when I saw him vs the way scouts put him on a pedestal. 

[Just Regular]

What's the Over/Under for his Arb1 salary in 2025?     I don't believe the new CBA is public, but my memory of past Arb stories for big stars is that curve breakers sometimes earn opportunity to use All Position comps, or there are some Player friendly mechanisms like that if they do enough special stuff.....like say generating 20 WAR in their 3 minimum seasons.

Realmuto was only 9-10 WAR his first three.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

Joe Mauer's highest OPS+ in a season was 171. Piazza, 185. Posey's highest 171.

AR's OPS+ at 210 right now.

AR's on a completely different level than any catcher right now. 

How many times do you think Mauer, Piazza and Posey had two week stretches where they put up an OPS+ of 210 or better?   I can guarantee you they each did so multiple times.   For example, in Piazza’s 185 OPS+ season (1.070 raw OPS), he had a 24-game stretch of 1.294 and a 14-game stretch of 1.454.  

[jabba72]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

How many times do you think Mauer, Piazza and Posey had two week stretches where they put up an OPS+ of 210 or better?   I can guarantee you they each did so multiple times.   For example, in Piazza’s 185 OPS+ season (1.070 raw OPS), he had a 24-game stretch of 1.294 and a 14-game stretch of 1.454.  

Just putting into context how good of a start Adley is having. Not necessarily saying he is the best ever.

His start is impressive when compared to other Catchers top seasons.

[Just Regular]

I saw a mention of Clubs fearing him already, but I don't think it's that.

Some of what's making this such a joy to watch is he is NOT a Contact to Damage guy like Buck's birds, including Machado.

I don't think the Driveline Students of the Week fear him.     I think its more the game has evolved the quants have done the math on pitch attributes, and most of the MLB bats have enough Ryan Mountcastle in them, the hot stuff will play even if they don't get it in the zone that much.

Someone with an excellently honed eye can just watch all that hot stuff being imprecisely thrown to the league lead in Walks.     Reynaldo Lopez was just Tyler Wells full speed ahead on 0-2.

[Aristotelian]

Two more BB, no K. Hit into two DP of the variety where you get punished for hitting it hard.

[Aristotelian]

4/18: First K since Game 1 of the Oakland series. No walks tonight so he's down to +6, 16 K/10 BB.