TT: It's time to bring up Colton Cowser

[Sports Guy]

I saw a stat on Twitter today that Cowser has a 44% whiff rate on breaking pitches.  I’m not sure if that has anything to do with keeping him down but it’s a good bet it is a reason.

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean the catch that he made look harder than it was?

It was a one-star catch and yes, he misread it a bit which is why he had to reach back. Wasn't incredibly easy, but it did have a 95% catch completion rate. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=091a3e43-db5d-40bc-b2f1-7e27b5534120

So in your defense in this particular point, yes, he made it harder than it should have been. Overall though, he's been pretty good in RF this year with 2 OAA.

He also has a 4-star border line 5-star catch earlier this year in Chicago. This had only a 40% chance of catch success.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d78680db-021c-472d-97f9-4c2581395676

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

But those at-bats aren't really available until Hays, Santander, or McKenna start to struggle.  They're all playing well.

So Cowser either takes at-bats from Stowers or he takes them from vets who playing well, and responsible for the 2nd best record in baseball.

There's no rush.  Cowser isn't being hurt by spending more time in AAA.  Stowers deserves a longer leash.  And as long as the vets are playing well, and we are winning, they deserve to keep playing.

Do you believe that Cowser is the better/higher ceilinged player? If not, I understand your rationale. If you however do believe that Cowser is better (like the consensus scouting community who ranks all these players and gives projections) then Stowers is much less of a priority than Cowser.

[Pickles]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

There is VERY LITTLE chance that Cowser comes up and is better than either Hays or Santander right now as they are experience Major League hitters. He like most young guys will have his struggles. However, the bar is pretty low regarding what we have gotten out of that LH DH/sub outfielder spot with the likes of Stowers, Varva, and O'Hearn. I think he can give you more quality ABs than what those 3 have given (which is right next to zilch).

Cowser is the far superior prospect/talent/player compared to Stowers. And his Major League development should be considered much more of a priority to the org.

I don't disagree with any of that.  However, I call him up when I have a role for him where he plays basically every day.  So long as the O's top 4 OFers are healthy and playing as well as they are, I don't think that role exists.  IF I thought he could perform better than those top 4, or felt more strongly that he could, that would be a motivating factor.  But I don't believe that he can.

I don't care if Vavra rots on the bench.  I don't care if Stowser is riding the AAA shuttle.  However, I do care if that's the case of Cowser, so while I belive he could perform Vavra's role better than Vavra is, it is not a role I want him in.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

It was a one-star catch and yes, he misread it a bit which is why he had to reach back. Wasn't incredibly easy, but it did have a 95% catch completion rate. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=091a3e43-db5d-40bc-b2f1-7e27b5534120

So in your defense in this particular point, yes, he made it harder than it should have been. Overall though, he's been pretty good in RF this year with 2 OAA.

He also has a 4-star border line 5-star catch earlier this year in Chicago. This had only a 40% chance of catch success.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d78680db-021c-472d-97f9-4c2581395676

It’s nice to see that he has bounced back defensively after an awful start out there.

I’m still comfortable saying I would prefer him to get more at bats DH’ing and play the occasional OF. Much rather see Cowser out there everyday.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

So we should concentrate on developing Stowers even if we think we have a guy ready who is a better defender and better overall hitter?

Elias should concentrate on winning.  And he is.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That stat is kind of bs. Mounty had one earlier in that game that had an xBA of like 720. 
 

The ball was hit 100MPh..that’s hard but not crazy hard like Stanton for example.

The xBA doesn’t give credence to where the ball is hit I don’t believe. It’s just the exit velo. 

You can smash a ball at 120 MPh but if it’s right to a defender, they should make the play. 

That ball wasn’t one where AS needed it to be that hard. 
 

I’m not saying it was some easy, lazy flyball play but he made it look harder than it was.

Agreed on xBA, and definitely wouldn't die on the hill of that being an amazing catch... but at least he made it and has overall been solid out there. I agree, I would like to see him DH most of the time with Cowser and Hays getting most of the outfield reps, but I also don't mind seeing him in RF. 

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Dude, why do you insist on making terrible arguments that you know are terrible?  You're going to cherry pick Santader's last 4 games, then leap back to April to cherry pick some more stats, to argue he isn't playing well.  The guy's got a 114 OPS+ for the season.  You don't replace that with a rookie in the middle of a "pennant race."

A "few games a week" could be 2-3 starts a week.  Yeah, you don't take 30-40% of the guy's playing time and give it to a rookie and call it no big deal.

I’m certain that you know all of this, but in support of you, I will add that in the last 30 days, Santander is 28/93 for a .301 average with a .916 OPS. He was 3rd on the team with a 120 WRC+ last year (behind Adley and Gunnar who had a very small sample). One of his outs yesterday was hit 110.2 mph. He has a 52.4% hard hit rate (leads the team) and a 10.7% barrel rate (4th on the team) this year. He’s a switch hitter with legitimate 30 HR pop. Tony already talked about his defense, which, with the exception of 21, has always been average to above average in RF. Without spending a lot of time looking at rosters, I can’t think of a team in MLB where he’s a part time player. 

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't disagree with any of that.  However, I call him up when I have a role for him where he plays basically every day.  So long as the O's top 4 OFers are healthy and playing as well as they are, I don't think that role exists.  IF I thought he could perform better than those top 4, or felt more strongly that he could, that would be a motivating factor.  But I don't believe that he can.

I don't care if Vavra rots on the bench.  I don't care if Stowser is riding the AAA shuttle.  However, I do care if that's the case of Cowser, so while I belive he could perform Vavra's role better than Vavra is, it is not a role I want him in.

But when you combine the ABs that Varva, Stowers, and O'Hearn have gotten, that would be plenty of playing time for Cowser. I hope that the plan is for him to be the everyday LF. You can allow Hays and Santander to RF and DH. And then on the days that Adley is DH, you rest one of them depending on performance/matchup. And if you need to sit Cowser against a tough lefty, that's where Hays goes back to LF or McKenna plays.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Sydnor said:

I’m certain that you know all of this, but in support of you, I will add that in the last 30 days, Santander is 28/93 for a .301 average with a .916 OPS. He was 3rd on the team with a 120 WRC+ last year (behind Adley and Gunnar who had a very small sample). One of his outs yesterday was hit 110.2 mph. He has a 52.4% hard hit rate (leads the team) and a 10.7% barrel rate (4th on the team) this year. He’s a switch hitter with legitimate 30 HR pop. Tony already talked about his defense, which, with the exception of 21, has always been average to above average in RF. Without spending a lot of time looking at rosters, I can’t think of a team in MLB where he’s a part time player. 

1) no one is calling for him to be a part time player.

2) you cite those stats but basically all of that damage came in the stretch to begin May where he has 6 straight 2 hit games and another 2 hit game in one of the DH games vs Det at the end of April. Almost all of his offense this year was in those 7 games. 14 of his 34 hits in those 7 games, 3 of his 5 homers and 3 of his 12 doubles.

He just hasn’t done a lot outside of those games.

His current fWAR pace is about 1.6. That’s not really anything special.

[ChuckS]

I'm wondering if the Gillaspie move is a precursor to Cowser being the next call-up. 

Gillaspie gets Stowers off the roster.  Cowser gets Gillaspie off the roster when we no longer need the extra bullpen arm. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I'm wondering if the Gillaspie move is a precursor to Cowser being the next call-up. 

Gillaspie gets Stowers off the roster.  Cowser gets Gillaspie off the roster when we no longer need the extra bullpen arm. 

Hard to imagine this team will go with 12 pitchers for any real length of time with the starters not eating a lot of innings.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

But when you combine the ABs that Varva, Stowers, and O'Hearn have gotten, that would be plenty of playing time for Cowser. I hope that the plan is for him to be the everyday LF. You can allow Hays and Santander to RF and DH. And then on the days that Adley is DH, you rest one of them depending on performance/matchup. And if you need to sit Cowser against a tough lefty, that's where Hays goes back to LF or McKenna plays.

Well, again, you're taking ABs from Hays, Santander, and McKenna to give to Cowser.  I'm not ready to do that.

25% of the team DH ABs, if not more, are Adley's.   When Urias is healthy, some of those will go to him and Gunnar.  They like McCann to get some against lefties, and while that was not a popular move, he has shown himself well in those opportunities.

If Hays becomes your primary RF, then Santander becomes a PT DH.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That stat is kind of bs. Mounty had one earlier in that game that had an xBA of like 720. 
 

The ball was hit 100MPh..that’s hard but not crazy hard like Stanton for example.

The xBA doesn’t give credence to where the ball is hit I don’t believe. It’s just the exit velo. 

You can smash a ball at 120 MPh but if it’s right to a defender, they should make the play. 

That ball wasn’t one where AS needed it to be that hard. 
 

I’m not saying it was some easy, lazy flyball play but he made it look harder than it was.

I agree with the fact that xBA doesn’t tell you the difficulty of a defensive play, because it doesn’t tell you where the fielder was in relation to where the ball was hit.  

Here’s the Hayes liner where Santander came in to make the catch.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d67ea1c5-f304-41e2-8d9d-e957da059cf9. Savant rated that a 75% probability catch.  

Here’s the catch at the wall.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=091a3e43-db5d-40bc-b2f1-7e27b5534120  Savant rated that a 95% probability catch.  

The problem with catch probability is it doesn’t take into account where the wall is, or the angle the player needs to take to get to the ball.  So it is not a perfect metric, and I would not say that ball is caught 95% of the time.  But it’s caught most of the time, and a lot of fielders would have made that play look easier. Still, it was a good catch in a big situation.  

I’m glad to hear that the metrics have Santander playing better defense this year.  I agree with Tony’s point that most of Santander’s misadventures have come in LF over the last two years.  The RF plays where I’ve seen him have trouble the last few years are the pop ups down the RF line that are just a little too deep for the infielders.   Santander tends to get a bad break on those.  


 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Frobby

[btdart20]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I saw a stat on Twitter today that Cowser has a 44% whiff rate on breaking pitches.  I’m not sure if that has anything to do with keeping him down but it’s a good bet it is a reason.

That's a legit concern.  MLB pitchers will attack that.  Where are you finding that type of breakdown of pitches seen?