A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him

[Sports Guy]

Why do people even mention trading Holliday as if there is any chance Elias is dealing him?  

[EddeeEddee]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

2 months of any player including Ohtani is not enough for Holliday.  I would love to have Ohtani on this team, but no way are the O's/Angelos signing Ohtani to the biggest free agent deal ever.  They can't even sign Adley to an extension.

The Angels are playing pretty well.  Can't see them trading Ohtani.  And can't see the Orioles trading for him.  He's a FA after this season.  

[Bemorewins]

39 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

We had a debate about what it would take to get Cease in one of the other threads.  As a comparison, when the O's traded Bedard he was only 2 years away from FA, and the O's got 5 players for him, including Adam Jones who had already had a decent taste of the majors.  And Bedard, as good as he was, came with durability issues.  

But as Cease is not pitching that well right now it could also mean the Orioles may not want to risk trading for him and target someone else, or that the WS hold him back as they may not sell low on him.  Of course the WS could claim Gunnar isn't really hitting yet either.

If I'm wrong and Elias can get Cease for as little Gunnar and Stowers (like someone else suggested), I think it's really hard not to make that trade even if Cease isn't pitching that well yet.  Best case scenario for the O's in my opinion is, if Cease is still underperforming, that they get to keep Gunnar and Holliday and have to trade 5 players (like the O's got when they traded Bedard) -- just for fun maybe something like DL Hall, Westburg, Norby, Seth Johnson and Samuel Basallo.  I think the WS will want some pitching in the return, not just hitters.  I'm no expert here of course but love to follow trades and find the negotiation part of it fascinating.

I like some of your ideas regarding making a trade, but the highlighted package get's you nowhere near Cease IMO. Yes it's 3 top 100 guys, but none in the top 60. 

Heck, I hope that I am wrong and the CHI SOX would be dumb enough to do that.

[ShoelesJoe]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

And while they are at it, why not ask for Adley and Grayson too...lol

In what world can a pitcher who had ONE SINGULARLY dominant season get back a former #1 prospect, a soon to be #1 prospect AND two other top 100 prospects. The Nats didn't even get that for Soto!

This package suggested is ludicrous. There is NO PLAYER in the sport of baseball that could fetch that... Not Ohtani, Judge, NO ONE.

Come on, let's be a little more rational and realistic please. 

Of course trading Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, and Cowser for Dylan Cease would be absurd. The question was what would Chicago demand, not what they'd eventually get should we agree to a deal. One side asks for way too much and the other side offers way too little, and then they negotiate for a while to see if there's any middle ground. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why do people even mention trading Holliday as if there is any chance Elias is dealing him?  

Not sure. It doesn't make much sense to me, especially for a player like Ohtani given the limited time on his contract. I know this may be hard to understand for some, but there wouldn't be enough value in a half of a season of Ohtani to justify the price of Holliday by himself, let alone any other pieces that would be included. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Of course trading Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, and Cowser for Dylan Cease would be absurd. The question was what would Chicago demand, not what they'd eventually get should we agree to a deal. One side asks for way too much and the other side offers way too little, and then they negotiate for a while to see if there's any middle ground. 

They wouldn't ask that without getting hung up on. Cease has NOWHERE NEAR that kind of valuation in the game. As I stated before, NO PLAYER could get that kind of package. A former #1 prospect, a likely #1 this year, a top #40, plus another top 100 guy for Dylan Cease? And this is coming from a guy who would LOVE to have Cease!

As I stated earlier at that point they might as well ask to throw in Adley and Grayson to sweeten the deal...lol

[EddeeEddee]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I like some of your ideas regarding making a trade, but the highlighted package get's you nowhere near Cease IMO. Yes it's 3 top 100 guys, but none in the top 60. 

Heck, I hope that I am wrong and the CHI SOX would be dumb enough to do that.

Hard to say.  Funny, before you were criticizing me for saying it would take a huge trade to get Cease.  Now you think my speculative trade is too skimpy on the O's part.  You could be right.  Maybe I'm all over the map now, but Cease's slow start would have to factor in.  If the Orioles can play on any White Sox fears that Cease's slow start may continue, maybe the O's can get him without having to give up Henderson, Holliday or Cowser.  Even so the White Sox could say they want, say Urias or even Austin Hays in a deal -- or one of the better relievers.  Who knows?

[RZNJ]

Eduardo Rodriguez is basically a rental.  He’s a much likelier target and more likely available.     

[royalstillman]

The development of pitchers in this organization is and has been for decades absolutely putrid.To this day,it just doesn't seem to be prioritized.Defense wins games,wins championships.Pitching is defense.I love what Elias has done with the hitting aspect,but he has failed miserably with the pitching,as have many,many past regimes.And Peter and sons have never seemed to think it important.As a fan it is very frustrating.

[EddeeEddee]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Eduardo Rodriguez is basically a rental.  He’s a much likelier target and more likely available.     

Agreed.  Of course, rentals have their own risks when you consider how much the Orioles had to give up for Scott Feldman and Bud Norris.  In other words, as long as the Orioles don't give away any good pitching for a rental.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, EddeeEddee said:

Agreed.  Of course, rentals have their own risks when you consider how much the Orioles had to give up for Scott Feldman and Bud Norris.  In other words, as long as the Orioles don't give away any good pitching for a rental.

Norris wasn't a rentall

[ShoelesJoe]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

They wouldn't ask that without getting hung up on.

Sure they would. I would if I was in their place, and so would you. You're the GM of a sinking ship organization who has but two prospects in the top 100, and none in the top 30. All of a sudden the GM of the organization with the best minor league system in baseball, with 9 top 100 prospects (and maybe 12-13 if truth be told) calls you asking about your most valuable starting pitcher. What's going to be your starting position for a trade negotiation? I'll tell you what that position is going to be -- you're going to do everything in your power to pillage and rape that guy's minor league system. Picture Al Pacino in Heat screaming "GIVE ME ALL YOU GOT!" Any GM who wouldn't start out by asking for too much doesn't deserve to be a GM. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1145pQpl1Lk

[EddeeEddee]

2 minutes ago, royalstillman said:

The development of pitchers in this organization is and has been for decades absolutely putrid.To this day,it just doesn't seem to be prioritized.Defense wins games,wins championships.Pitching is defense.I love what Elias has done with the hitting aspect,but he has failed miserably with the pitching,as have many,many past regimes.And Peter and sons have never seemed to think it important.As a fan it is very frustrating.

It hasn't been that bad when you consider the Orioles developed guys like Eduardo Rodriguez and Josh Hader.  They just happened to trade them away for underwhelming rentals.  They also developed Kevin Gausman and Jake Arrieta, two flawed late bloomers sure, but still ultimately successful pitchers.  Some might argue the problem with Arrieta was really a coaching problem.

I guess The O's should do like the Rays and trade for young pitching instead of trading it away.  

[Spy Fox]

7 minutes ago, royalstillman said:

The development of pitchers in this organization is and has been for decades absolutely putrid.To this day,it just doesn't seem to be prioritized.Defense wins games,wins championships.Pitching is defense.I love what Elias has done with the hitting aspect,but he has failed miserably with the pitching,as have many,many past regimes.And Peter and sons have never seemed to think it important.As a fan it is very frustrating.

I think Elias is making an intentional choice to invest less in homegrown pitching development and more in snagging pitchers he likes from other organizations, after those organizations put in the work to develop them. 

The strategy is, "we're less sure which pitchers in the draft are good, so let's get the good hitters in the draft and the good pitchers later on after we can study their pro numbers and see if they might be good."

We'll see if that pays off in the long run. But yeah, homegrown pitching prospects is there with major free agent signings as the two main areas where Elias is yet to have a feather in the cap. 

[EddeeEddee]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Norris wasn't a rentall

Right, not the best example.  Guess they had him for a couple years.