Ohtani Rental?

[Fiver6565]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

The Braves either lock up players when they're young (at a discount) or trade them when they become unaffordable. Ohtani doesn't fit that model and he's certainly not going to want to live/play in Atlanta or on the East Coast for that matter. That would tack another four hours (each way) on his flights to and from Japan. 

I agree it seems he wants the WC. But I think proximity to Japan isn’t a good reason for that. They guy is about to sign a contract worth possibly close to or more than 3/4 of a BILLION dollars.  He can travel to Japan in the kind of style/luxury most people simply cannot fathom. I don’t think a few hours diff in the flight is all that meaningful. 

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep saying this..what exactly do you think he’s worth? He’s a great player but it’s 2 months. You are only going to get so Much. 2 top 100 guys and another guy who has been top 50 within the last year is a lot to get back for 2 months of a player.

Put it another way…I bet we can get Bellinger and Gioloto for less than that.

I get that Othani is better than both but again, it’s 2 months. 
 

I guess you never know what some team is desperate to do but that would be a really hard offer to beat.

I strongly disagree with you here that Bellinger and Giolito are comparable returns.  Bellinger and Giolito's ROS projections are around 2.2 wins.  I think that is a bit low because they're regressing Bellinger's  performance due to him having like a 2-season-long slump.  But even if we project generously we're maybe at 3, 3.5 WAR rest of season.  It's not hard to project Shohei for something like 4 or 5 WAR rest of season.  He obviously carries with him single-point-of-failure risk, but he also does 2 jobs with 1 roster spot, so I think those easily wash out.  We'd have to add a 3rd all-star level player in the mix to match the projected production of Shohei by himself.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

That's fine, then see my 2nd point. A team isn't going to clear out their farm system for him unless they think it's potentially more than a two month commitment. And as incompetent as the Angels are, I wouldn't be surprised if they kept him, let him walk, and got zippy in return. It's amazing how an organization with a $200M payroll can be so consistently incompetent. I mean they haven't even managed a blind squirrel/nut season in reason years. 

People don’t need to sign him or feel like they have to sign him to trade for him.

Anyone trading for him is doing so to win a WS. That’s enough.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I strongly disagree with you here that Bellinger and Giolito are comparable returns.  Bellinger and Giolito's ROS projections are around 2.2 wins.  I think that is a bit low because they're regressing Bellinger's  performance due to him having like a 2-season-long slump.  But even if we project generously we're maybe at 3, 3.5 WAR rest of season.  It's not hard to project Shohei for something like 4 or 5 WAR rest of season.  He obviously carries with him single-point-of-failure risk, but he also does 2 jobs with 1 roster spot, so I think those easily wash out.  We'd have to add a 3rd all-star level player in the mix to match the projected production of Shohei by himself.

Right..they can give you 80% the production for a fraction of the cost..that was my point. I’m not saying they are comparable but again, all we need is the playoffs. That’s all that matters.

And that assumes both those 2 doing well going forward ANd that Othani’s blister isn’t an issue going forward.

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Hallas]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Right..they can give you 80% the production for a fraction of the cost..that was my point.

And that assumes both those 2 doing well going forward ANd that Othani’s blister isn’t an issue going forward.

 

But that isn't 80% of the production, it's like 60%, maybe 70%.  And you have to be really optimistic about Bellinger's performance going forward to buy that percentage; definitely not a surefire bet given how many seasons he struggled since his MVP season.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Hallas

[foxfield]

Question for purposes of the Ohtani discussion. 
 

Since the Angels minimum value is the compensation pick…

Does the team that acquires Ohtani get the pick when he leaves after the trade?

If so, that would figure in the cost as well. 
 

I am thinking they do not but am not sure. 

[ChosenOne21]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

Question for purposes of the Ohtani discussion. 
 

Since the Angels minimum value is the compensation pick…

Does the team that acquires Ohtani get the pick when he leaves after the trade?

If so, that would figure in the cost as well. 
 

I am thinking they do not but am not sure. 

In the year that they're traded, you can't QO a player to get a pick.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

Question for purposes of the Ohtani discussion. 
 

Since the Angels minimum value is the compensation pick…

Does the team that acquires Ohtani get the pick when he leaves after the trade?

If so, that would figure in the cost as well. 
 

I am thinking they do not but am not sure. 

They don't.

That changed a couple of CBA ago.

Any team trading for Ohtani will not be able to hit him with a QO.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, ChosenOne21 said:

In the year that they're traded, you can't QO a player to get a pick.

 

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

They don't.

That changed a couple of CBA ago.

Any team trading for Ohtani will not be able to hit him with a QO.

Thanks I thought so but appreciate the confirmation. 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

I remember people saying that about Trout. The hubris involved in saying there is zero chance is more than I'd be able to muster, that's for sure.

Edit: Your last two sentences didn't address what I asked. I didn't ask who will pay him stupid money, I asked which contenders right now, are willing to empty the farm for a 2-month rental.

It won’t require “emptying the farm” .  Rays could get it done easiest given their depth, Yankees could too though it would be much more emptying of their depleted system, Dodgers could but appears they are not . Astros could, Rangers could , Red Sox could.  And we could too of course. 
Don’t mistake though .. I do not want us to do it it it costs anywhere what is being suggested. 

I think his price ends up less than you assume.  In fact, I will predict thst when the deal is done, we will look at it and many here will say “Gosh, we could have beaten that.”

It is my opinion that Ohtani values winning more than all the other factors and spending the last  5 years with these perennial losers will not convince him to sign up for more. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

It won’t require “emptying the farm” .  Rays could get it done easiest given their depth, Yankees could too though it would be much more emptying of their depleted system, Dodgers could but appears they are not . Astros could, Rangers could , Red Sox could.  And we could too of course. 
Don’t mistake though .. I do not want us to do it it it costs anywhere what is being suggested. 

I think his price ends up less than you assume.  In fact, I will predict thst when the deal is done, we will look at it and many here will say “Gosh, we could have beaten that.”

It is my opinion that Ohtani values winning more than all the other factors and spending the last  5 years with these perennial losers will not convince him to sign up for more. 

I read that Angels ownership won't OK a trade to the Dodgers.  Shades of Peter.

[tntoriole]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I read that Angels ownership won't OK a trade to the Dodgers.  Shades of Peter.

Yes Moreno has money but he has created a very dysfunctional organization ..

[baltfan]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I read that Angels ownership won't OK a trade to the Dodgers.  Shades of Peter.

Normally I would agree this is stupid but when you are trading a guy that people might talk about for the next 100 years and have spent the last 20 years trying to get out from the Dodgers’ shadow, you can probably justify not trading him to the city rival.  It isn’t like there won’t be plenty of suitors. 

[TopGunnar]

2 hours ago, dzorange said:

What is Elias could base a package around what he got in return at last year's deadline (Seth Johnson, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich)? Couple of those plus a back end top-100 position prospect.

Regardless, this is just fantasy booking and it won't happen anyways.

I say if we can get Ohtani without giving up any of top guys Id be all for it. I just don’t want Kjersted, Mayo, Holliday going anywhere 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Normally I would agree this is stupid but when you are trading a guy that people might talk about for the next 100 years and have spent the last 20 years trying to get out from the Dodgers’ shadow, you can probably justify not trading him to the city rival.  It isn’t like there won’t be plenty of suitors. 

That's why you bleed them even more.

If they trade him to the Rangers for a lesser package and he signs with the Dodgers anyway how is that better?