Bautista vs. other closers

[Frobby]

There are 30 teams in MLB, but are there 30 closers?  If you scroll down to 30th on the saved list, you find you’re at 7 saves.  Not many for game 74 or so.

If you look at the top 30 guys, you find the aggregate save rate of those pitchers is 85.0%.   If you assume the bottom half of those are not full time closers, and just look at the 16 pitchers with at least 14 save opportunities, the save rate is 86.8.%.  

Despite his ridiculous 1.04 ERA, and stranding all 6 runnners he inherited, Felix Bautista only has an 83.3% save rate.   Amazingly, he’s allowed 4 earned runs and has 4 blown saves.  Two of his blown saves came on unearned runs: the Boston game where McKenna dropped the fly ball, and the Atlanta game where Bautista allowed the ghost runner to score on a wild pitch.  

i think Bautista will make the all star game despite his below average save rate.  He’s still fifth in MLB in total saves. He’s third in ERA among all pitchers with at least 20 IP (Cano is second).  In that group, his 17.91 K/9 leads the majors. 

Other AL relief candidates seem likely to include:

- Emanuel Clase, who is tied for the league lead in saves with 22 but also leads in blown saves with 5.  2.59 ERA, 8.2 K/9.

- Jordan Romero, 22 saves and only 3 blown saves. 2.76 ERA, 10.9 K/9. 

- Carlos Estevez, 19 saves without a blown save, 1.74 ERA, 11.6 K/9.

I’ll leave the set-up guys out of this conversation.  




 

 

[dystopia]

I don't see how you can leave him off the All Star roster with the numbers he has. The ghost runner thing makes blown saves more common, plus the dreaded McKenna game skews his save %. 

[Sports Guy]

He’s the best closer in the sport. He’s the biggest lock on the team to make the AS game as of today.

[Tony-OH]

I have hard time thinking of a closer I'd rather have on the mound than Bautista. I especially love that he's going to that fastball more after he and Rutschman got a little too in love with his split-finger pitch.

[deward]

He's got an 87.5% save rate if McKenna can catch a simple fly ball. 

[Sports Guy]

Save% is such an overrated stat. So many things go into play.

It’s like when Justin Tucker hasn’t made the all pro roster because some kicker has a higher make% than him.  It’s not apples to apples.

[AdamK]

The more big moments for Felix, the better.

[Since1984]

Yes, let him be the deserving all-star. Just please add a Givens + and Tate + to the bullpen to have full season success!

[Since1984]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s the best closer in the sport. He’s the biggest lock on the team to make the AS game as of today.

I gave the laughing cred because of the confidence of the statement. The splitter wil be needed when it comes to the playoffs imo

[Moose Milligan]

Someone lock Frobby’s thread making privileges. Reverse lock today. 

[Aglets]

Ah Moose beat me to it!

[bpilktree]

How many 1 run save opportunities does he have compared to multi run saves.  It seems he has had a lot of 1 run lead safe situations.  

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Someone lock Frobby’s thread making privileges. Reverse lock today. 

I 100% thought of this thread when Bautista came out to the mound. When he blew the save I was like, "Yep, that's about right!"

[now]

12 hours ago, deward said:

He's got an 87.5% save rate if McKenna can catch a simple fly ball. 

Didn't help Bautista's save stat today, but at least McKenna redeemed that team loss with a team win! McKenna taketh away, and McKenna giveth...

[Frobby]

On 6/24/2023 at 10:31 AM, Sports Guy said:

Save% is such an overrated stat. So many things go into play.

It’s like when Justin Tucker hasn’t made the all pro roster because some kicker has a higher make% than him.  It’s not apples to apples.

A decade or so again I looked at every closer in the league and how they did in 1, 2 and 3 runs saves.  My memory is rusty, but as I recall it, only about 75% of 1-run saves were successful, whereas 2-run saves were successful over 90% of the time and 3-run saves it was 98-99%.  So obviously, how tight your save situations are is a huge factor.  

Now, you have these extra inning situations where the closer is protecting a 1-run lead with a runner on 2B through no fault of his.  I don’t know what the save rate is on those, but it almost has to be under 75%.   

By my count, Bautista is: 

0-1 in extra-inning one run saves

6 for 10 in regulation 1-run saves

6 for 6 in 2-run saves

8 for 8 in 3-run saves

I forget what the typical “save mix” is for a closer, but I’d say that Bautista has had his share of easy saves, and has been pretty mediocre in the 1-run saves, even accounting for the McKenna drop.