Specific Trade Ideas

[Yardball85]

19 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Why?

What do you mean "why?"  

Because it's a message board, trades are interesting, the Orioles should be buyers, the deadline is 3 weeks away... do you really need that question answered?

[sportsfan8703]

I like Giolito.  He matches well up against the other #1 SPs on playoff teams.  Giolito vs. Cole/Gausman/Valdez/Lopez/Eovaldi/Lopez.  We'd be favored in every home Game 1 except against Cole.  

Giolito helps us to get home field advantage too.  

 

[HakunaSakata]

20 hours ago, banks703 said:

Corbin Burnes isn’t Justin Verlander. 

Right. At this point in their careers Burnes is actually a better and significantly younger pitcher. I also think that Verlander's 2017 salary was quite a bit higher than Burne's current salary when the Astros traded for him. 

[Tryptamine]

27 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Giolito.  He matches well up against the other #1 SPs on playoff teams.  Giolito vs. Cole/Gausman/Valdez/Lopez/Eovaldi/Lopez.  We'd be favored in every home Game 1 except against Cole.  

Giolito helps us to get home field advantage too.  

 

What?

 

Giolito- 3.45 ERA, 4.15 xERA, 4.21 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA

 

vs.

 

Cole- 2.85 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA

 

Gausman- 3.03 ERA, 3.53 xERA,  2.45 FIP, 2.90 xFIP, 3.02 SIERA

 

Valdez- 2.51 ERA, 3.87 xERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.99 xFIP, 3.31 SIERA

 

Eovaldi- 2.83 ERA, 3.40 xERA, 3.18 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA

 

 

[Yardball85]

22 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Imagine how much better he would be hitting now if he would have gone down for a couple weeks

LOL - you're just trolling at this point. 

[Yardball85]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

What?

 

Giolito- 3.45 ERA, 4.15 xERA, 4.21 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA

 

vs.

 

Cole- 2.85 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA

 

Gausman- 3.03 ERA, 3.53 xERA,  2.45 FIP, 2.90 xFIP, 3.02 SIERA

 

Valdez- 2.51 ERA, 3.87 xERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.99 xFIP, 3.31 SIERA

 

Eovaldi- 2.83 ERA, 3.40 xERA, 3.18 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA

 

 

Agreed.  I am not against acquiring Giolito, but the number one pitchers mentioned are all really good, and probably better than Giolito. 

[FlipTheBird]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Right. At this point in their careers Burnes is actually a better and significantly younger pitcher. I also think that Verlander's 2017 salary was quite a bit higher than Burne's current salary when the Astros traded for him. 

I don’t necessarily know about “better,” but Burnes is absolutely younger and cheaper than Verlander was in 2017, which drives the price up.

[Frobby]

22 hours ago, banks703 said:

Corbin Burnes isn’t Justin Verlander. 

He’s not, but in fairness, Verlander appeared to have slipped a notch before that Houston trade.  He had a 128 ERA+ the first 8 years of his career, then 113 the next five, and 117 at the time of the Houston trade.  He was a totally different guy once he got to Houston, with a 187 ERA+ in his years there.   

Burnes is at 125 ERA+ in his career.  Verlander was at 123 before the Houston trade, and like Burnes, was trending down. 

Now, I don’t have any reason to think Burnes will suddenly take his game up several notches if we acquire him.  But I think it’s fair to say that Verlander exceeded the Astros’ wildest expectations when they made that trade.    The prospects they gave in exchange have to be viewed in the context of what Verlander had done for several years before that deal, not the earlier part of his career or what he did later.  

 

[HakunaSakata]

19 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Are the Nats interested in trading Gore and Harvey  For Povich, Norby, and a filler?  Not sure they want to move Gore though…

"Maybe" Harvey, but I can't see them trading Gore. He hasn't been great, but he's been good enough and he's still relatively young. 

[HakunaSakata]

11 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

I don’t necessarily know about “better,” but Burnes is absolutely younger and cheaper than Verlander was in 2017, which drives the price up.

Verlander's underlying numbers this season are pretty awful. He's also not striking anyone out anymore. I'd much rather take my chances with the younger guy who has much more swing and miss-a-bility. 

[HakunaSakata]

12 hours ago, deward said:

Verlander was a HoF pitcher, still pitching at the top of his game, with two years of control remaining. There is no one on the market that is remotely comparable. And the Astro's #3 was like #46 on the top 100 IIRC, and their 9 and 10 weren't on it at all. 

Verlander's pre-trade ERA the season he was traded was 4.07 and he wasn't really pitching like a HOFer at the time. In fact, he was kind of having a a similar season/career path trajectory as Corbin Burnes is now when the trade happened. I know Verlander had a much longer record of success at the time, but he  wasn't exactly in peak form when the trade happened. 

[Roll Tide]

19 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

I don’t necessarily know about “better,” but Burnes is absolutely younger and cheaper than Verlander was in 2017, which drives the price up.

Then that’s why you would pass. Burnes is a 4 ERA pitchers this year with metrics trending the wrong way. He’s not a guy you give the house to get. 

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Verlander's pre-trade ERA the season he was traded was 4.07 and he wasn't really pitching like a HOFer at the time. In fact, he was kind of having a a similar season/career path trajectory as Corbin Burnes is now when the trade happened. I know Verlander had a much longer record of success at the time, but he  wasn't exactly in peak form when the trade happened. 

BBREF says 3.82

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

BBREF says 3.82

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

Yep, I misread it. I think same sentiment still applies. It's quite a bit higher than his 3.25 career ERA (i.e., he wasn't at his best).  

[deward]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Verlander's pre-trade ERA the season he was traded was 4.07 and he wasn't really pitching like a HOFer at the time. In fact, he was kind of having a a similar season/career path trajectory as Corbin Burnes is now when the trade happened. I know Verlander had a much longer record of success at the time, but he  wasn't exactly in peak form when the trade happened. 

His pre-trade ERA was 3.82 (his FIP was 4.07, which might be what you're looking at). Verlander's K rate in 2017 hadn't fallen off his career norms to nearly the same degree as Burnes' this year. Verlander finished 9th in the league in WAR in 2017 (overall, not just for pitchers). For pitchers he finished 3rd. He would have finished tied for 10th even if he never threw a pitch for Houston that year. He wasn't pitching like it was 2011, but he was doing just fine.