Keith Law Top 60 Prospects

[Alasdaire]

25 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Speed doesn’t necessarily equal range for an IF but Henderson’s sprint speed is in the 85th percentile of all ML players.   Probably better than average for all ML SS.  The dude can run.

 

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

His speed isn't difficult to gauge.

It's 28.6 ft/s.

That puts him in a tie for 13th for ML SS.  HP to first is 4.26 seconds and he has three bolts.

 

I said difficult to gauge because I remember trying to figure out how fast he was while he was coming up through the minors and seeing that Perfect Game clocked his 60-yard dash time at 6.87, which would be the equivalent of 26.2 ft/sec. That's a very slow time for a shortstop, but people always said he looked faster. Even now, if you just watched him you would think he's faster than what statcast has. The guys who rob bases like he did last night in Tampa are genuine speedsters like Elly De La Cruz or Enrique Bradfield.

Anyway, point is he's pretty much league-average speed for a SS. It's not a tool that stands out at the position. What does stand out is his arm. Statcast has that as the third for any infield position. If we can't have Mayo's arm there, Gunnar's is a good consolation prize.

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[RZNJ]

Superlatives from Keith Law about the Orioles.  Wow!   How times have changed.

[Brooks The Great]

20 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Interesting to see his lack of love for Mayo. I'm a bit surprised.

I'm not. Law is too contrarian of an evaluator and also has been biased against the O's in general.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

I'm not. Law is too contrarian of an evaluator and also has been biased against the O's in general.

Most didn’t have Mayo top 100 to start the year.  Law said he’s a definite top 100 now.   It’s likely that Mayo is not a 3B at the ML level.   He’s having a great year but is he going to be an elite hitter or a 30+ homer guy who hits .260 and walks 60-70 times?

[Brooks The Great]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Most didn’t have Mayo top 100 to start the year.  Law said he’s a definite top 100 now.   It’s likely that Mayo is not a 3B at the ML level.   He’s having a great year but is he going to be an elite hitter or a 30+ homer guy who hits .260 and walks 60-70 times?

No one will know for sure, but Mayo has had one of the very best seasons of any prospect - period. He'll be a consensus Top 25 prospect by the time the 2024 lists come out. Law is too late and too low on him.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

No one will know for sure, but Mayo has had one of the very best seasons of any prospect - period. He'll be a consensus Top 25 prospect by the time the 2024 lists come out. Law is too late and too low on him.

I hope you’re right.  I love the season he’s having but because of position I can see not having him quite that high.

[TheWall]

13 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

I'm not. Law is too contrarian of an evaluator and also has been biased against the O's in general.

I think he's low on Mayo, but you're going to accuse him of bias against the Os when he's higher than everyone on Basallo and Ortiz? He's also gushed about the Orioles talent development and drafting in recent months (including blurbs in this posting). 

From looking at the comments on The Athletic - pretty much everyone thinks Law is biased against their team. Maybe he seemed biased about the Os in the past, because there wasn't much to actually be excited about. He's been plenty complimentary of our most recent wave of prospects.

I also find the idea that he's too contrarian to be a bit funny. Do we really want everyone to just copy / paste the MLB Pipeline rankings? Also a lot of the rankings from different publications are composite rankings of their various contributors, so they look more aligned. Law's rankings are his own. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

No one will know for sure, but Mayo has had one of the very best seasons of any prospect - period. He'll be a consensus Top 25 prospect by the time the 2024 lists come out. Law is too late and too low on him.

And yet, MiLB.com just ranked him 74th in their midseason update.  Are they also biased against the Orioles?

I too think Mayo will wind up higher in the offseason rankings, but let’s see how he plays the next two months. 

[Sports Guy]

Law says he’s definitely a top 100 guy but he would rank him no higher than 80th. So, he’s definitely a top 100 guy but he’s not comfortably a top 100 guy.

Thats wrong and to me, it reflects draft position and how Law evaluated him a few years ago.

It doesn’t matter but for discussion purposes, it’s a bs ranking especially when you have Kjerstad inside the top 60.

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Law says he’s definitely a top 100 guy but he would rank him no higher than 80th. So, he’s definitely a top 100 guy but he’s not comfortably a top 100 guy.

Thats wrong and to me, it reflects draft position and how Law evaluated him a few years ago.

It doesn’t matter but for discussion purposes, it’s a bs ranking especially when you have Kjerstad inside the top 60.

It seems that for you, if two players have similar stats and one is three years older, it’s a no brainer that the younger player should be ranked higher.  But I think for these evaluators, they are looking at other things to judge whether a player’s success will translate to the majors.   And in that respect, some evaluators think Kjerstad’s traits translate better.   I’d like to hear them explain why, but I don’t think it’s absurd.  It seems like opinions are mixed on the subject.  

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It seems that for you, if two players have similar stats and one is three years older, it’s a no brainer that the younger player should be ranked higher.  But I think for these evaluators, they are looking at other things to judge whether a player’s success will translate to the majors.   And in that respect, some evaluators think Kjerstad’s traits translate better.   I’d like to hear them explain why, but I don’t think it’s absurd.  It seems like opinions are mixed on the subject.  

But the traits are similar..both hitting for a good average, both have some defensive question marks, both are seeing walks up and Ks down.

Maybe you feel Kjerstad has bigger power. That would be the difference I think.

But the age difference does matter and Mayo doing what he’s doing against older peers does matter.

That said, even if you like Kjerstad more, it’s not 30ish spots on a list like this more.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Brooks The Great]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

And yet, MiLB.com just ranked him 74th in their midseason update.  Are they also biased against the Orioles?

I too think Mayo will wind up higher in the offseason rankings, but let’s see how he plays the next two months. 

Another classic Hangout argument made with no context. Do you know why I say that Law is biased against the Orioles? I'll explain it to you. Because of Law's history of dimissing O's prospects, as well as dismissing the organization under Elias in general before it's become clear that Elias is a great GM and has built a winner from scratch. 

MLB Pipeline is also too low on Mayo. But, no, I don't think they're biased because they're low on Mayo. They're just too low on him because they're off on their evaluation on him, and late. Law is biased because of his history evaluating the O's. They both got to the same fairly inaccurate and tardy conclusion, but for different reasons.

Way to contort my statements into a point that I didn't make.

 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Brooks The Great said:

I'm not. Law is too contrarian of an evaluator and also has been biased against the O's in general.

Honestly, I think Law just overlooked him for whatever reason.  His combination of youth, upside with the bat, performance at an advanced level, and plate discipline are usually the things he values.  

[TheWall]

1 hour ago, Brooks The Great said:

Another classic Hangout argument made with no context. Do you know why I say that Law is biased against the Orioles? I'll explain it to you. Because of Law's history of dimissing O's prospects, as well as dismissing the organization under Elias in general before it's become clear that Elias is a great GM and has built a winner from scratch. 

MLB Pipeline is also too low on Mayo. But, no, I don't think they're biased because they're low on Mayo. They're just too low on him because they're off on their evaluation on him, and late. Law is biased because of his history evaluating the O's. They both got to the same fairly inaccurate and tardy conclusion, but for different reasons.

Way to contort my statements into a point that I didn't make.

 

You're completely disregarding that Law has always been high on Ortiz and is now the highest of anyone on Basallo. Maybe he isn't biased against the Os and instead actually gives his opinion? He liked Ortiz before his breakout and even before Elias had proven himself to be solid at drafting. 

He also releases his prospect rankings before the draft and tends to cling to his own evaluations longer than most. Do you think how he's viewed players has changed in the past simply because they were in our system? Which incredible prospects did we have prior to the Elias era that Law has missed on?