MLB article on what it would take to get Shohei Ohtani. Has Orioles trading 5 guys. Boston 1.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Debut at 25 effective at 26?

I think the question is more interesting then you expected it to be.

On one hand you are offering me guaranteed value, on the other hand that value isn't manifest until 2026.

I'd probably pull the trigger and try and recoup that value in some other way over the next three years.

 

I was thinking more debut next season, be effective in 2025

[Hallas]

The red Sox proposal is stupid.  At the very least the Red Sox should have to add in some flyer prospects near the bottom of their depth chart.  The prospect they are giving up is better than any of ours in that scenario but the difference isn't worth all 5 of those guys.

 

Fangraphs values 60 FV hitting prospects at around 60 million and 50 FV ones at around 28 million.  So it's roughly 2 for 1.  We're giving up 3 and 2 filler pieces.  Really weird.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

I was thinking more debut next season, be effective in 2025

Oh, so an improved Bradish scenario.

Well that's just a loaded question not designed to create actual debate.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Would getting Ohtani make us a Top 3 WS favorite? I think so.

But what does that mean?  Currently on Fangraphs the O's have a 3.6% chance of winning the Series. The top three teams are the Braves (25%), Dodgers (12.2%) and Rays (11.5%). Let's say Ohtani lets the O's switch places with the Rays.

Do you trade five very solid prospects for a one-year, 8% increase in the odds of winning the World Series? I don't know. It might be exciting, if he stays healthy and they make a run. But even once you make the playoffs you have steep odds against not going home disappointed.

And you have to assume Ohtani isn't signing his next contract with the O's. It'll be a Reggie situation. The O's have given out one $100M+ contract ever, and Ohtani will require $500M. That's just not happening. The trade is for two months plus playoffs of Ohtani.

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

All the more reason to trade Norby. Just like Hernaiz, there's no place to play him. So why not give him an opportunity to have a Big League career by trading him? He is capital/leverage for the top quality pitching we need if he is a part of a package. 

As for Montgomery I'm not sue how I feel about that because he's a rental just like Ohtani and Montgomery has been injured. Even if he isn't injured, it begs rhe questions of "How much is he going to cost to acquire?" and "Is he really going to move the needle all that much from our current pitching staff?"

Yup. I have no problem moving Norby and even though I am a huge Ortiz fanboy, I would be alright with moving him if it brought back pitching. Plus, that'd hopefully give Joey a chance to play at the ML level.

I would guess that they waiting for each starter to take their next turn(s) through the rotation to see how GrayRod responds/builds off of his last outing to determine if they need to seek a starter. I personally think they need to upgrade at least one spot but will be surprised if they actually acquire someone to do so. 

[Hallas]

48 minutes ago, waroriole said:

These trade proposals are really ridiculous. Not just Ohtani. The one I saw for Montgomery (Povich and Wagner), a mediocre two month rental, sounds like they were written by sellers. 

I'm not sure why you think Montgomery is mediocre.  Hes been solidly above average for 4 straight seasons and is currently having a career year.  I think Gausman during his Orioles tenure is a good comp.  That's at least a solid #2 starter for nearly every team in baseball and a budget-tier ace for at least 10 teams.

[Moose Milligan]

It’s depend if they’d give us 36 hours to hammer out a long term deal to keep him here. 

If yes, it’s a no brainer. 

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh, so an improved Bradish scenario.

Well that's just a loaded question not designed to create actual debate.

Yes, lack of missing a year due to Covid would make me think the scenario would be slightly improved/expedited.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

It’s depend if they’d give us 36 hours to hammer out a long term deal to keep him here. 

If yes, it’s a no brainer. 

Do you think you could get ownership to approve any sort of deal that quickly?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It’s depend if they’d give us 36 hours to hammer out a long term deal to keep him here. 

If yes, it’s a no brainer. 

Haha.  No chance.  Do it or not with no extension because that’s a ZERO possibility.

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It’s depend if they’d give us 36 hours to hammer out a long term deal to keep him here. 

If yes, it’s a no brainer. 

You haven’t been paying attention

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

Yes, lack of missing a year due to Covid would make me think the scenario would be slightly improved/expedited.

Like I said, that isn't an honest question at that point.  You just want to keep Povich. 

My equivalent would be what if you knew Povich was going to need Thoracic Outlet surgery?  Would you make the deal?

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think you could get ownership to approve any sort of deal that quickly?

If you can prove to them that Ohtani is a good investment for the revenue, it's always a possibility. But I don't think it would be that quick. They can't even work out a lease deal in over a year so no chance they'd approve a deal in 36 hours.

[Just Regular]

It'd be a nifty piece of consolidating the accumulated pile into something sharper if we could do that 5-for-1 with Boston.

[oriole]

That’s a lot to give up for 2 months of anyone, even Ohtani. I’m a dreamer and hope that the O’s decide Ohtani is worth the investment in FA, but not a chance I’m giving up that much for him. He could come over and trip in the dreaded pothole in the parking lot before his first start. Its just not worth it and I really hope they don’t go after him. For the record, I don’t think they will. I think lazy writers are just hammering away at their keyboards so they can meet their deadline for rubbish speculation in exchange for clicks.