Jack Flaherty acquired for Cesar Prieto, Drew Rom, and Zach Showalter

[Flash- bd]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Comments from Jay Jaffe:

“one would have expected a team in the Orioles’ position to come away from the trade deadline either with higher quality or greater quantity than just Flaherty, who at this stage is a quasi-LAIM (League Average Innings Muncher), albeit one with merely a modest appetite for innings based on his spotty track record for health. If a contact-oriented Cardinals starter about to hit free agency was the order of the day, why couldn’t the Orioles land the more durable and reliable Jordan Montgomery, who was instead traded to the Rangers? Maybe a change of scenery will help Flaherty, but an AL East where all five teams are above .500 is hardly the most hospitable landing spot for pitchers in need of a new backdrop.”

* * *

“While Elias sees this team as one whose competitive window is just starting to open, perhaps he and the Orioles will look back and wish they had dug a bit — or a lot — deeper to round out their rotation in pursuit of October success.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jack-flaherty-joins-a-new-flock-in-baltimore/#ntv-lightbox1214749-557216

It is a reasonable question to ask, why we didn't go for Montgomery. 11th and 15th prospect in the Rangers system probably is pretty similar to the return we gave, maybe we'd have to upgrade Prieto to something more like Norby, who is still rather expendable. 

I wonder if there isn't something about Flaherty that we rather like. 

[Greg Pappas]

My initial frustration with this trade was twofold: 

1. coming away with only Flaherty but no additional bullpen arm
2. learning we were giving up just 1, then 2, then 3 prospects

As happens sometimes when news breaks, how you feel in the moment is not how you feel soon after.  I'm still disappointed that we came away with Flaherty over other traded players I'd have preferred (Montgomery in particular), but if he pitches as well here as he's been pitching lately, he'll be a vital piece to the rotation when we need it most.  Keeping our best prospects was and is a wise move.  It'll be an interesting off-season, with regards to trade talks, but there's still a season to finish here and now, with us having a legit shot to go far in the playoffs.  It's a great time to be an O's fan.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, yark14 said:

John Alan Means

Relief Pitcher….Personally I’m not counting on Means for anything this year. 

[jerios55]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

WHAT?

He's making 5.4M this year.  He's pitching OK.

Zero chance he was going to get hit with a QO.  Last QO value was over 19M.  He'd take it in a heartbeat.

Last yeat was arbitration.   I don't see it as apples to apples comparison.  If he finishes the year strong, he will do far better than 5.4 mill.  Although, as mentioned in the other post probably not close to 20 mill either.

Ultimately, it's likely in thr middle and is a 10-12ish player.  We won't wait long to find out.

Edited August 2, 2023 by jerios55

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, Malike said:

"The top of our prospect list is as good as is out there," Elias said. "It took a long time to get people off of that part of the list."

 

"A lot of teams really fixated on a lot of players that we had that we just didn't feel were appropriate to go in those deals," Elias said. "That's part of why this went to the last minute for us."

It’s like I said yesterday…just because you have a lot of top guys doesn’t mean you are ready to just get rid of them for whatever.

I think he would have moved some top guys for Cease but he wasn’t moving the best prospect in the sport for him. It’s just not happening and teams need to be smarter than that.

At some point, you take the best deal you can, not the deal you hope to get.

Now, the WS didn’t have to trade Cease and his value could be the same or higher this offseason or even next deadline. That said, he could also get hurt or further be exposed and your best trade chip no longer brings you back the return you could have gotten yesterday.

Oh well. I think Flaherty will work out well for us and if they can figure something out with him and get him to throw more strikes, he could be really good.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Comments from Jay Jaffe:

“one would have expected a team in the Orioles’ position to come away from the trade deadline either with higher quality or greater quantity than just Flaherty, who at this stage is a quasi-LAIM (League Average Innings Muncher), albeit one with merely a modest appetite for innings based on his spotty track record for health. If a contact-oriented Cardinals starter about to hit free agency was the order of the day, why couldn’t the Orioles land the more durable and reliable Jordan Montgomery, who was instead traded to the Rangers? Maybe a change of scenery will help Flaherty, but an AL East where all five teams are above .500 is hardly the most hospitable landing spot for pitchers in need of a new backdrop.”

* * *

“While Elias sees this team as one whose competitive window is just starting to open, perhaps he and the Orioles will look back and wish they had dug a bit — or a lot — deeper to round out their rotation in pursuit of October success.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jack-flaherty-joins-a-new-flock-in-baltimore/#ntv-lightbox1214749-557216

I have zero issue saying Montgomery was the better get than Flaherty.

Where I take issue with it is, what was the difference in prospect cost? I mean, I know what St Louis got but what was that equivalent here?  Was it Hall/Povich and someone like Beavers? 
 

People like to say it was the 10th and 14th prospects from the Cards, so that’s the same for us and since our system is deeper, ours are better.

All of that is true and has merit but we have no idea if St Louis liked who they got more than say Povich and Beavers and then the question becomes, if they would have taken Povich and Beavers, would you rather have those 2 and Flaherty or Montgomery, Prieto, Showalter and Rom?

The answer to that question is likely how you feel about Montgomery vs Flaherty.

Statcast looks to favor Flaherty in many categories. Flaherty gets more Ks and misses more bats. Flaherty had a very unlucky BABiP, whereas Montgomery is more in line with the league average.

Montgomery’s 2 big edges are throwing more strikes/less walks and durability.

The durability angle is important but with 2 months left, I’m less concerned about that than I would be if I were looking to sign them both before the season started.

End of the day, im not sure the juice is worth the squeeze to give up the better prospects for Montgomery vs Flaherty.  Montgomery May be more reliable but not sure it’s by as much as Jaffe is hinting at here.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[CaptainRedbeard]

I also preferred Montgomery, but FWIW I think the main prospect who the Rangers gave up for him, Tekoah Roby, is a lot better than people realize by just referring to him as their 11th best prospect. It’s hard to evaluate prospects at the deadline because the evals are frequently not fully updated or just slow to catch up. 

Fangraphs did their full eval of the Rangers system on July 9 and had Roby as a 50 FV prospect and in the top 100. That’s above Povich, and closer to on par with Joey Ortiz. If you agree with that eval, I certainly prefer the Flaherty deal to the equivalent for Montgomery. 

To put it another way - STL definitely had a higher asking price for BAL for Montgomery than Flaherty. At the same price I’d prefer Montgomery, but how much more would you be willing to add/sub to Prieto/Showalter/Rom to get Montgomery instead? For a 2 month rental I don’t think the difference between Montgomery and Flaherty is big enough to give up much more prospect capital. 

[LTO's]

I'm pretty shocked the Cards settled for this package given what some of the other rentals went for. Not that those packages were all that spectacular, and some of the players were (modest) upgrades over Flaherty, but you saw teams going after guys with louder tools instead of a low ceiling, quantity over quality approach.

Prieto's lack of power will severely limit his value at the big league level and he's just an OK defender. He'll probably be a utility bench guy for them until they can find an upgrade there. Rom's stuff is nowhere close to above average SP quality at the big league level. You're looking at a slightly worse Cole Irvin in all likelihood making him redundant. He was probably going to be DFA'd sometime in the near future. Unless the Cards can pretty drastically change his delivery, Showalter is most likely a reliever. He could be a good one but who's sweating a relief prospect who is 3 years away? 

[foxfield]

You can't always get what you want.  

I do think we got what we needed.

Elias held his ground regarding the future and got a solid with upside starter.  That move allows the depth already here to give him several options for additional bull pen and starter help if/when needed.

Was it an overpay?  In the sense that 18 years for 3 months.  Yea maybe.  But so what?  Nobody we were trying to protect is gone.  The deep depth that is carrying this team is still there and every young player we imagine might be able to help this year is still here.

The future has been undisturbed as well.

Was it a good move or a bad move? Hindsite always wins this question.  Personally, I think it's a good move and would give it a A+ for the overall body of deadline work.  IF the O's make it to the WS, this deadline will look even better.  But if the team falls steeply from here and exits early...well then of course Elias will be deemed to have not done enough.

He worked to make the team better, and he worked to keep the future secure.  And in a way, he bet on the hand he is already holding.  I am pleased and excited and enjoying every minute of this season.

---------

But I do have this one nagging wonder about a potential conversation that is running through my head.  Has this happened to any of you?

Elias:  Mr. Anglos, your Eminence, may you have a minute for your servant?  

John Angelos:  Speak pawn.

Elias:  Do you remember back in December and you authorized me to make an offer to Justin Verlander for 3 years/50MM?

John Angelos:  I also said you could invite him and his wife to Nashville for some R & R.

Elias:  Well, your Eminence, as I am sure you are aware, the Met's landed Justin for $86.666MM for 2 years with a 3rd year that vests @140 innings in 2024 for $35MM.

John Angelos:  Come to the point!!!  I am tracking that evil Dan Connolly the one who was so smug about seeing the books!!! NOW LOOK AT HIM!!!

Elias:  Um, well, I can have Verlander through '25 for 93MM and I have the Met's willing to send you $52.5MM meaning We can have him for $40.5MM through '25 and if he doesn't pitch 140 innings next year you don't pay him in 25 and save an extra 17.5MM on the deal.  

John Angelos:  And what would the Met's want for this opportunity to have Justin and his family here in Baltimore?

Elias:  That's the best part sir.  They will do this and all they want in return is Carter Young and Adam Frazier and if we include Frazier they will pay his entire 2023 Salary.  That's an extra 5MM.

John Angelos:  What does your Sigbot say about our playoff chances if we do this?

Elias:  We would go from 3.3% odds to over 5%.

John Angelos:  We can't do that for that much.

Elias:  We can't afford the 35MM to verlander for 1.5 years or the extra 17.5 MM if he hits 140 Innings next year?

John Anglos:  We can't win without Adam Frazier.  No one on the MLB roster and no one in the top 14. That is an order.  And you can tell that @Can_of_corn guy at OH he can shove that in his can.

Elias:  Yes, your Eminence, as is your will.

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by foxfield

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sports Guy]

 

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Bob Gibson has been dead almost 3 years

[Fan4Life]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Does the schedule play any role here?

[Sports Guy]

 

[RZNJ]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

Bob Gibson has been dead almost 3 years

So he liked him in 2019 when he was pitching great?   Lol

Bottom line.  Pitch well and we’ll like you.  I suspect he’ll give us what Wells was giving us in the first half.  That will do.

The playoffs are a different animal but you never know who might stand out.   It was Christian Javier, not Justin Verlander, or Framber Valdez, who stood out in the WS last year.

Mickey Lolich, not 30 game winner Denny McLain, was the hero of the 1968 WS.