Could Elias call up our 19-year old SS phenom?

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Manny was also in his 2nd full season of minor league ball, had over 900 minor league PAs and most importantly, the Orioles had a huge hole at 3B on their roster.

Also, Duquette was never playing for six years down the road or even concerned about controllability and I'm certain that plays a part on Elias' moves. 

With Urias, Frazier and Westburg all playing well, and Henderson pretty entrenched at SS, there is not real place for him to play and no one knows how he would handle the two level jump. 

Elias has never jumped a player completely over AAA as he's brought them up and spoken often about the need to for player to get through different "hoops". 

So as amazing of a season as Holliday is having, I think there is about a 0.1% chance Elias brings him up this year and starts his clock, and loses a 40-man spot this offseason that he wouldn't have to lose otherwise.

It just would be a major change in M.O. by Elias, and again, when you look at this team, I don't think there is a major need right now in the lineup that would be worth starting his clock for.

 

I agree with all of this, but we cannot fire money at trying to win a WS, and Elias didn’t want to mortgage the farm at the deadline, but the bullet we can fire is Jackson Holliday. If he’s our 9th place hitter, then we’re looking like the favorites in the AL. Fire the bullet. 

[waroriole]

Around the Super 2 deadline next year is what I’d expect. Considering what we know about ownership, that’s the smart move. It’s better to guarantee that extra year of control, even more than a 1st round pick. Maximize the amount of time you have with players like this. 

[Just Regular]

It feels possible from here that the team continues to play so well that the 2024 team "doesn't need him", and that would be fun theater if they try to figure out what he needs to work on to get to the ~8/31 Gunnar (and what I think will be Kjerstad) anniversary.

He's doing his part to make it ballpark similar to the 2020 Rays McClanahan (did use) and Wander (didn't use) playoff roster decisions.    There I don't know what kind of wacky alternate site roster rules MLB made up as they went along that let McClanahan be eligible.     Before his October 2020 debut, McClanahan had all of four AA games at the end of 2019 on his resume aside from whatever he flashed at the TBR alternate site during 2020.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I agree with all of this, but we cannot fire money at trying to win a WS, and Elias didn’t want to mortgage the farm at the deadline, but the bullet we can fire is Jackson Holliday. If he’s our 9th place hitter, then we’re looking like the favorites in the AL. Fire the bullet. 

We will not agree on this at all. I agree with Elias that it is not the time to bring up Holliday for many reasons.

[interloper]

In what world would a 19-year-old Holliday supplant any of the following in a pennant race:

Gunnar at SS
Westburg/Frazier at 2B
Westburg/Urias at 3B

Y'all lost your damn minds. The best case would be he platoons at 2B and Frazier rides the bench, but that's never going to happen.

Edited August 13, 2023 by interloper

[brucewayne]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

In what world would a 19-year-old Holliday supplant any of the following in a pennant race:

Gunnar at SS
Westburg/Frazier at 2B
Westburg/Urias at 3B

Y'all lost your damn minds. The best case would be he platoons at 2B and Frazier rides the bench, but that's never going to happen.

To be real though, Gunnar is the only one that Holliday isn't going to have a realistic shot to outperform at age 19. And he probably won't be as good as Frazier is in the clutch. Other than, I don't think it's impossible he is the 2nd best infielder in the organization right now. 

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

To be real though, Gunnar is the only one that Holliday isn't going to have a realistic shot to outperform at age 19. And he probably won't be as good as Frazier is in the clutch. Other than, I don't think it's impossible he is the 2nd best infielder in the organization right now. 

This statement tells me that you’ve obviously not seen him or any of the other prospects play and are holding onto box scores numbers to post these ludicrous statements.

Defensively he’s not even in the top five and an argument could be made for not including him in the top 10 right now.. defensively 

[brucewayne]

40 minutes ago, banks703 said:

This statement tells me that you’ve obviously not seen him or any of the other prospects play and are holding onto box scores numbers to post these ludicrous statements.

Defensively he’s not even in the top five and an argument could be made for not including him in the top 10 right now.. defensively 

The hit tool is by far the most important tool for any position player. Ask Derek Jeter.

Edited August 13, 2023 by brucewayne

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, brucewayne said:

The hit tool is by far the most important tool for any position player. Ask Derek Jeter.

Yeah, but you need more than that. Hanser Alberto says hi.

[brucewayne]

8 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Yeah, but you need more than that. Hanser Alberto says hi.

Hanser Alberto couldn't hit. He is a career .269/.292/.390

[Rbiggs2525]

I think everyone should wait and see on Holliday defense. He is 19 years old and still physically developing. I believe in the player and mental make up. I also remember Westburgs defense being questioned on this website. So far it has been plus at second and good at third. 

[ChosenOne21]

20 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

Hanser Alberto couldn't hit. He is a career .269/.292/.390

He could in his, admittedly short, prime from 26 to 28. He hit .305, .283, and .270. League average BA those years was .252, .245, and .244.

Standard deviation on BA is about 0.20, so each 0.20 above average is ten points on the scouting scale.

So for those three years Alberto's hit tool was roughly a 75, a 70, and a 60.

But he wasn't valuable in two out of three of those years because he didn't do anything else well.

[brucewayne]

3 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

He could in his, admittedly short, prime from 26 to 28. He hit .305, .283, and .270. League average BA those years was .252, .245, and .244.

Standard deviation on BA is about 0.20, so each 0.20 above average is ten points on the scouting scale.

So for those three years Alberto's hit tool was roughly a 75, a 70, and a 60.

But he wasn't valuable in two out of three of those years because he didn't do anything else well.

Baseball reference has him at negative batting runs.

[ChosenOne21]

Just now, brucewayne said:

Baseball reference has him at negative batting runs.

I thought we were talking about hit tool. Didn't you say something like it was the most important tool, just ask Derek Jeter? If you're talking about the total package as a hitter, then yes, he wasn't a good hitter.

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I thought we were talking about hit tool. Didn't you say something like it was the most important tool, just ask Derek Jeter? If you're talking about the total package as a hitter, then yes, he wasn't a good hitter.

If Jeter played average defense he'd probably have been the greatest to play the position. Using DRS/UZR and Range Rating, Jeter was easily one of the worst defenders of his generation. He cost his team 152 runs from 2003 to 2014. Even when he was a "gold glover" his DRS in those years was -92. He was really bad at SS. His fielding % was good, but that's a terrible way to judge as we all know.