Elias' 2023 Offseason acquisitions grades

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Did the Orioles notice Givens was overweight when they signed him? With Givens' sidearm delivery it was pretty much a given that extra girth would negatively effect his performance.

I think that's a valid question, but I doubt we'll ever know. I would imagine he would have come in for a medical exam before the signing was official, but not sure you can fail a guy for being overweight. 

[Sanity Check]

If anyone had predicted Gibson would win 14 games for us ,and for us to take the under/over, most would have said under.  And most would have been happy with him getting 14 wins for us.  That's way better than a C in my book, especially given 1) what we've been getting in recent years from starters, and 2) what I think most of us were expecting.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Sanity Check

[baltfan]

Couloumbe is an A+ given what he has done vs. what he cost.   There have been times this season when he was the second best reliever in the pen.

Frazier is a B because of his value in the clutch.  Yes, you can't predict clutch in the vast majority of situations, but the Frazier has time and time again come through more often than could reasonably be expected in the clutch.  The value of his hits and even the diving, game-saving stop to his left in a game earlier in this year are not captured in WAR or any other stat that I am familiar with.  He has impacted positively more games in clutch situations than any other player on this team that I can think of.  And whether that is because he is truly clutch, is lucky, or whatever, the impact is still there. 

Frazier's OPS with runners in scoring position is .950.  He has a .861 OPS in high leverage situations.   

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Lol, you really are too much sometimes. You literally said, "but I don't think that is really a great way of looking at it." I NEVER MADE THAT POINT IN THE FIRST PLACE!!!!! I never placed a grade. I never said all the moves would be added up and then given a grade. Clearly some moves were meaningless or small moves and don't get the same "weight" as the others. 

Instead of just admitting you were wrong, you keep doubling and tripling down. 

If it's helpful, I absolutely and unequivocally agree that you did not yourself give Elias an overall grade.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

If anyone had predicted Gibson would win 14 games for us ,and for us to take the under/over, most would have said under.  And most would have been happy with him getting 14 wins for us.  That's way better than a C in my book, especially given 1) what we've been getting in recent years from starters, and 2) what I think most of us were expecting.

Gibson also as an ERA+ of 83 and has the best run support of any starter in the AL this year. Gibson has filled his role being a reliable innings eater, but he might not even start any playoff games. Gibson has been this year's Jordan Lyle and he's average at best.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/mlb/getleaders.asp?rank=085

[SteveA]

The one thing that hasn't been mentioned about Frazier in this thread is that he is a LH bat, and we kind of needed another one in the infield, given our ballpark, especially before O'Hearn emerged as a useful piece.

I know a lot of people on here like to ignore LH/RH aspects completely, they just like one player more than another and think therefore he should always be in the lineup.    Or they were mystified that DL Hall was taken out last night when a string or RH batters was coming due, because he was "pitching well".   

But the fact is, there IS a platoon advantage that exists statistically.   LH/RH balance DOES matter.   Perhaps Elias/Hyde overdo it at times, but a lot of people act like it doesn't exist at all.

Frazier's defense was disappointing, certainly, and that has decreased his value.   And we overpaid for him.   I'm not saying it was a good signing.   But I think a lot of people act like he had zero value when he clearly has contributed something to this team.

[Sanity Check]

13 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Gibson also as an ERA+ of 83 and has the best run support of any starter in the AL this year. Gibson has filled his role being a reliable innings eater, but he might not even start any playoff games. Gibson has been this year's Jordan Lyle and he's average at best.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/mlb/getleaders.asp?rank=085

Regardless, I stand by my statement that if anyone had predicted 14 wins from Gibson, most of us would have taken it.   He has never won that many games in a season.  As a fan, I don't care how he got there, I care more that he got there.

There are some pitchers that can't win even with that kind of run support.  Imagine if we had Austin Voth in that spot this year......

[Jim'sKid26]

Great Thread @Tony-OH, thank you.

There is a concept sometimes called "opportunity cost." It's an economics term that roughly translates to "the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen." An example in business would be idle cash balances represent an opportunity cost in terms of lost interest.

In the case of Frazier, one opportunity cost was not allowing Westburg to play all year.  In the case of Givens it was $5M. 

Tony, did you factor opportunity cost into your grades? 

[WietersCorner]

I think another huge aspect of the offseason is that we did not jam our roster or payroll with any long commitments - that deserves an A in itself. I see countless other teams now saddled with bad contracts for players that I had originally wanted the Orioles to sign. Elias is amazing!

[Flash- bd]

2 hours ago, Gunnar said:

I would move Gibson up to a B, McCann up to an A, and Coulombe to an A+ (he has really amped things up in the bullpen), otherwise can't argue (maybe downgrade Frazier like Otter said).

Agreed, though I would actually move Frazier up to a B. I know we tend to be very analytic-based, focused on what can actually be measured, here on OH, but I have come to think differently about the worth of clubhouse dynamics and "veteranosity" over the years. Just because we don't have a way of measuring it does not mean it is not at least a minor factor, and it's easy to turn our nose up at things we can't measure, but I think there's a bit of human ego in that, maybe. It's easy to over-estimate the impact of these things, but I think when you see a team that's over-performing expectations and winning games at an extraordinary rate with a whole-is-better-than-the-sum-of-the-parts approach, that we also should be wary of dismissing it completely, and that the proof is to some extent in the pudding.

I would also move up Irvin to a B, the fact is he's provided important innings and while we might've hoped for a slightly better ERA he's also sustained the quality of our rotation in times of need and his overall numbers probably don't quite reflect his overall contribution due to his early troubles and a few poor bullpen outings. 

[Birdland in NC]

Just the fact that Frazier has been getting the majority of starts at 2B in these games down the stretch that are essentially must-win games, I think that acquisition gets a B at least.  Posters hate on him because they have a crush on Jordan Westberg, but if Westberg was a better MLB player, he'd be getting the starts.  There's no way Hyde or Elias are keeping a better player on the bench for these games.   

[Tony-OH]

51 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Great Thread @Tony-OH, thank you.

There is a concept sometimes called "opportunity cost." It's an economics term that roughly translates to "the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen." An example in business would be idle cash balances represent an opportunity cost in terms of lost interest.

In the case of Frazier, one opportunity cost was not allowing Westburg to play all year.  In the case of Givens it was $5M. 

Tony, did you factor opportunity cost into your grades? 

Lol. No, I basically gave each grade about 10 second or less of thought!  

[Frobby]

What the recap shows me, and it’s a good lesson to remember, is that a GM doesn’t have to hit a home run on every swing he/she takes in the offseason. If you make solid contact a few times, you can do enough to boost your team.  And Elias definitely did that.  

I think the Frazier deal worked out extremely well, even though I was against it.  For one thing, it’s added depth.  For another, he’s had a lot of big hits.  And third, it allowed us to be patient with Westburg, so that we now have an extra year of his services at a bargain price.  He came up without too much pressure and I think the whole thing has worked to the Orioles’ advantage.

 

 

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

The one thing that hasn't been mentioned about Frazier in this thread is that he is a LH bat, and we kind of needed another one in the infield, given our ballpark, especially before O'Hearn emerged as a useful piece.

I know a lot of people on here like to ignore LH/RH aspects completely, they just like one player more than another and think therefore he should always be in the lineup.    Or they were mystified that DL Hall was taken out last night when a string or RH batters was coming due, because he was "pitching well".   

But the fact is, there IS a platoon advantage that exists statistically.   LH/RH balance DOES matter.   Perhaps Elias/Hyde overdo it at times, but a lot of people act like it doesn't exist at all.

Frazier's defense was disappointing, certainly, and that has decreased his value.   And we overpaid for him.   I'm not saying it was a good signing.   But I think a lot of people act like he had zero value when he clearly has contributed something to this team.

In my defense, I wasn't mystified that DL Hall was taken out last night, I was mystified he was replaced by Lopez.  Given how poorly Lopez has been pitching, Hall, even with the LH/RH splits, was, IMO, a better option than 'batting practice' Lopez.  My opinion would have been different about pulling Hall if he'd been replaced by someone who could, you know, actually pitch effectively.  

[Satyr3206]

I hated the Frazier signing when it happened and am still not a big fan of it. I will have a double helping of crow to eat. He has been a pleasant surprise.