Some potential moves for this offseason

[24fps]

I'm a little leery of giving up Kremer and minor league pitching talent this offseason because the organization is just too thin there.  It's not whether a deal is fair, it's that the O's should deal from strength and bump up the budget to address the pitching situation.  If ownership is unwilling to increase spending after 2023's success, then we may as well find that out sooner rather than later.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, 24fps said:

I'm a little leery of giving up Kremer and minor league pitching talent this offseason because the organization is just too thin there.  It's not whether a deal is fair, it's that the O's should deal from strength and bump up the budget to address the pitching situation.  If ownership is unwilling to increase spending after 2023's success, then we may as well find that out sooner rather than later.

I don’t think that Elias will give up Kremer. He was our best pitcher in stretches last year. The guys that think we are going to dump a ton of money into free agency to get a better starter need to snap back into reality. I think you can pretty much lock in Means, Bradish, Kremer, and G-Rod. I don’t think we are bringing Gibson back so some kind of acquisition wouldn’t surprise me. If he wants to use the chips to bring in one of the starters previously mentioned then he slots in with this group. In that case you still have Irvin and Wells (100 IP) if you choose to use the later as a long man. Honestly, as stated I would use Wells as the closer this season and my bullpen would be something like:

Irvin

Perez

Coulombe

Hall 

Webb

Cano

Baumann

 

[terpoh]

10 hours ago, orioles22 said:

I'd much rather have six years of McDermott than two of Cease. I may not make a 1-for-1 trade there with his potential.

Love McDermott's potential and I see where you are going...but Cease has 11.7 WAR in the last three years, has two years of control and finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young in 2022. This shouldn't even be a question. Even in a well recognized down year this year he struck out 214 batters in 177 innings. Maybe McDermott becomes all that and more, maybe not. But I dont think you can pass up on a guy who has done it at the MLB level and has multiple years of control.

 

For comparison- on our roster last year of guys in the rotation- only Bradish had more than Cease's 2.4 WAR. So even in a down year for him he is a significant upgrade. And he of course has the ability to get back to a potential 4-6 WAR for each of the next two years. 

Edited October 25, 2023 by terpoh

[orioles22]

I didn't like trading Bundy for Bradish a few years back. I bet the Angels hate that move now. I'd keep McDermott, but Elias seems to have a good idea on these decisions.

[e16bball]

Happened upon this article, which is from a Guardians oriented blog. The intro to the article proffers that the Cleveland fandom has been bandying about potential deals with the O’s for some time, specifically with regard to former Indians prospect Santander.

This article, though, suggests a Bieber for Hays deal, straight up.

Starting with the finances, a necessity with this franchise it seems, MLBTR says you’re looking at $12M for Bieber next year (and then free agency). Hays is projected at $6M for next season, with one year of arbitration (likely in the $8-9M range) remaining. 

We know what Hays is. Pretty good bet at this point for a (streaky) 105-110 wRC+, probably at least an average corner OF for the next two seasons, always a bit banged up, great clubhouse guy and fan favorite. Solid likelihood of giving you 2.0-2.5 WAR, as long as he’s mostly healthy. Guardians desperately need to add some sticks to their OF, so the fit is pretty obvious.

Bieber is a bigger question mark. Took a major step back last season, certainly no longer was pitching at the “ace” standard he’d previously established. There are some pretty grim signs in terms of trends — the velocity and the K rate have both cratered over the last couple years. Statcast has gone from blood red in 2020 to a pretty frosty grayish-blue hue in 2023. He was in the 2nd percentile for exit velocity last year, contributing to very poor “expected” stats across the board.

That said, he’ll still be only 28 on Opening Day next season, somehow only 7 months older than Kremer. He missed a good bit of time with an elbow injury last season — which you could probably frame as either a good thing (if a temporary, and now resolved, injury explains some of the declining stuff) or a terrible thing (if he’s an aging pitcher whose arm is rapidly ticking down toward zero). He’s always been a horse, averaging about 6.3 IP per start over his career, including last year. And while things were at their nadir for him this past season, he did still manage a 3.80 ERA to go with closely matching FIP/xFIP numbers, which would have put him toward the top end of our 2023 rotation.

A swap of an OF for a SP between BAL and CLE seems to make a ton of sense. Both teams dealing from ML roster surplus, without touching their farm system or being forced to take on any crazy contracts. Is Bieber for Hays a move you would do as the Orioles? Do you agree with this blogger that the Guardians would also potentially bite?

[G54377]

We have to trade one of our OF. Whether it should be one of the vets (Santander/Hays/Mullins) or the young guys clearly needing reps in the bigs (Cowser/Kjerstad/Stowers) is up for debate. Most would probably agree it should be either Hays or Santander. This trade makes sense for us. We're getting a guy with one year of control left who is under pressure to perform for a big contract. With a contract year like Rodon had recently for example, he's setting himself up for upwards of 200 million given his age. At worst, he's an established starter that will be one of our best 3ish starters barring injury. 

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

Happened upon this article, which is from a Guardians oriented blog. The intro to the article proffers that the Cleveland fandom has been bandying about potential deals with the O’s for some time, specifically with regard to former Indians prospect Santander.

This article, though, suggests a Bieber for Hays deal, straight up.

Starting with the finances, a necessity with this franchise it seems, MLBTR says you’re looking at $12M for Bieber next year (and then free agency). Hays is projected at $6M for next season, with one year of arbitration (likely in the $8-9M range) remaining. 

We know what Hays is. Pretty good bet at this point for a (streaky) 105-110 wRC+, probably at least an average corner OF for the next two seasons, always a bit banged up, great clubhouse guy and fan favorite. Solid likelihood of giving you 2.0-2.5 WAR, as long as he’s mostly healthy. Guardians desperately need to add some sticks to their OF, so the fit is pretty obvious.

Bieber is a bigger question mark. Took a major step back last season, certainly no longer was pitching at the “ace” standard he’d previously established. There are some pretty grim signs in terms of trends — the velocity and the K rate have both cratered over the last couple years. Statcast has gone from blood red in 2020 to a pretty frosty grayish-blue hue in 2023. He was in the 2nd percentile for exit velocity last year, contributing to very poor “expected” stats across the board.

That said, he’ll still be only 28 on Opening Day next season, somehow only 7 months older than Kremer. He missed a good bit of time with an elbow injury last season — which you could probably frame as either a good thing (if a temporary, and now resolved, injury explains some of the declining stuff) or a terrible thing (if he’s an aging pitcher whose arm is rapidly ticking down toward zero). He’s always been a horse, averaging about 6.3 IP per start over his career, including last year. And while things were at their nadir for him this past season, he did still manage a 3.80 ERA to go with closely matching FIP/xFIP numbers, which would have put him toward the top end of our 2023 rotation.

A swap of an OF for a SP between BAL and CLE seems to make a ton of sense. Both teams dealing from ML roster surplus, without touching their farm system or being forced to take on any crazy contracts. Is Bieber for Hays a move you would do as the Orioles? Do you agree with this blogger that the Guardians would also potentially bite?

Not interested in Beiber.  What does Gavin Williams or Bibee cost?

[HakunaSakata]

11 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Not interested in Beiber.  What does Gavin Williams or Bibee cost?

There's zero chance Cleveland is trading one of those young arms so it's really a moot point. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

Happened upon this article, which is from a Guardians oriented blog. The intro to the article proffers that the Cleveland fandom has been bandying about potential deals with the O’s for some time, specifically with regard to former Indians prospect Santander.

This article, though, suggests a Bieber for Hays deal, straight up.

Starting with the finances, a necessity with this franchise it seems, MLBTR says you’re looking at $12M for Bieber next year (and then free agency). Hays is projected at $6M for next season, with one year of arbitration (likely in the $8-9M range) remaining. 

We know what Hays is. Pretty good bet at this point for a (streaky) 105-110 wRC+, probably at least an average corner OF for the next two seasons, always a bit banged up, great clubhouse guy and fan favorite. Solid likelihood of giving you 2.0-2.5 WAR, as long as he’s mostly healthy. Guardians desperately need to add some sticks to their OF, so the fit is pretty obvious.

Bieber is a bigger question mark. Took a major step back last season, certainly no longer was pitching at the “ace” standard he’d previously established. There are some pretty grim signs in terms of trends — the velocity and the K rate have both cratered over the last couple years. Statcast has gone from blood red in 2020 to a pretty frosty grayish-blue hue in 2023. He was in the 2nd percentile for exit velocity last year, contributing to very poor “expected” stats across the board.

That said, he’ll still be only 28 on Opening Day next season, somehow only 7 months older than Kremer. He missed a good bit of time with an elbow injury last season — which you could probably frame as either a good thing (if a temporary, and now resolved, injury explains some of the declining stuff) or a terrible thing (if he’s an aging pitcher whose arm is rapidly ticking down toward zero). He’s always been a horse, averaging about 6.3 IP per start over his career, including last year. And while things were at their nadir for him this past season, he did still manage a 3.80 ERA to go with closely matching FIP/xFIP numbers, which would have put him toward the top end of our 2023 rotation.

A swap of an OF for a SP between BAL and CLE seems to make a ton of sense. Both teams dealing from ML roster surplus, without touching their farm system or being forced to take on any crazy contracts. Is Bieber for Hays a move you would do as the Orioles? Do you agree with this blogger that the Guardians would also potentially bite?

Bieber is the only pitcher I could see Cleveland trading and you already pointed out the main reasons weprobably  shouldn't trade for him. If all it takes is Hays, though, I'd probably pull the trigger though knowing full well the team probably won't be in the running for any of the big FA SPs (i.e., we have to something). Cleveland has quite a few solid bullpen arms too. I'd love to see if we can get them to include someone like Stephan as well. 

[HakunaSakata]

58 minutes ago, G54377 said:

We have to trade one of our OF. Whether it should be one of the vets (Santander/Hays/Mullins) or the young guys clearly needing reps in the bigs (Cowser/Kjerstad/Stowers) is up for debate. Most would probably agree it should be either Hays or Santander. This trade makes sense for us. We're getting a guy with one year of control left who is under pressure to perform for a big contract. With a contract year like Rodon had recently for example, he's setting himself up for upwards of 200 million given his age. At worst, he's an established starter that will be one of our best 3ish starters barring injury. 

It should 100% be one of the vets. This team isn't going to invest big dollars in players so they're going to have to keep the farm system well stocked and churn and burn most of their players. I'd also prefer a team without both Santander and Kjerstad on it (i.e., two gloried DHs) so my vote would be to trade Santander. I think there's a very good stance Kjerstad, if given a full season, can replace his numbers. 

[OriolesMagic83]

6 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Bieber is the only pitcher I could see Cleveland trading and you already pointed out the main reasons weprobably  shouldn't trade for him. If all it takes is Hays, though, I'd probably pull the trigger though knowing full well the team probably won't be in the running for any of the big FA SPs (i.e., we have to something). Cleveland has quite a few solid bullpen arms too. I'd love to see if we can get them to include someone like Stephan as well. 

Is Bieber even better than Kremer at this point?  Even Hays might be too much to give up. I really want the O's to at least get a guy who is better than Means' baseline of 3.7ish ERA.   I'm almost sure that Angelos won't spend the money or Elias the prospects to get a #1 starter, and I'm starting to doubt the O's will trade for or sign a #2 starter. 

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Is Bieber even better than Kremer at this point?

I think it’s very likely that he is. 

We’re talking about a 28-year-old who posted a cumulative 2.91 ERA (with FIP/xFIP both also below 3.00) over almost 600 innings from 2019-2022. He was undoubtedly one of the top 5-10 pitchers in all of baseball during that span. 

Even if we assume that version isn’t coming back — although I don’t think that’s a certainty, at least with regard to the diminished Ks 2022 version — and only look at 2023, he was still better than Kremer despite working through elbow issues. In fact, Kremer has never actually bested Bieber in any individual metric (ERA, FIP, xFIP, xERA) in any season. 

He’s very likely not the bona fide *ace* that he once was, and that some are dead-set on the Orioles seeking. The drop in velocity has probably seen to that. But unless he takes another huge drop-off, I think he’s very likely better than Kremer and probably better than Means. I don’t know that you’re going to do better than a proven potential SP3 on a reasonable one-year deal as the straight-up return for Austin Hays.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

It should 100% be one of the vets. This team isn't going to invest big dollars in players so they're going to have to keep the farm system well stocked and churn and burn most of their players. I'd also prefer a team without both Santander and Kjerstad on it (i.e., two gloried DHs) so my vote would be to trade Santander. I think there's a very good stance Kjerstad, if given a full season, can replace his numbers. 

I agree with you that I don't want an OF with Kjerstad and Santander in the corners.  Cowser hasn't shown that he can hit MLB pitching.  I would like to think he can but I could see Elias signing a Frazier like player for the OF.  Looking forward to lots of players bemoaning this signing. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 10/24/2023 at 10:10 PM, orioles22 said:

I'd much rather have six years of McDermott than two of Cease. I may not make a 1-for-1 trade there with his potential.

No one even considers McDermott a top 199 prospect.  If he has Gibson's career, I would consider that a 90% outcome.  If Elias can't trade a player like McDermott, he just just block the numbers of other GMs and state he is never trading any precious prospects.  Ceases performance in 2022 is as good as any O's starter in the last 30 years.   Can't see why people don't want to add Cease if the price is right. 

[24fps]

13 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I agree with you that I don't want an OF with Kjerstad and Santander in the corners.  Cowser hasn't shown that he can hit MLB pitching.  I would like to think he can but I could see Elias signing a Frazier like player for the OF.  Looking forward to lots of players bemoaning this signing. 

Hays is a "Frazier like player" only better for roughly half the cost.  If Santander is resigned then that will be a vote of confidence that he will continue to provide power in the middle of the order for an acceptable (albeit full retail) price.  If that happens, then I would prefer trading Hays and spending the difference on pitching.  There are worse gambles in baseball than giving Kjerstad an opportunity with Cowser as a fallback or vice versa.