Infield alignment

[Sports Guy]

The problem with the thought that Westburg will just play everywhere is that the Os are starting to get guys up here who are and will be everyday guys.

And by everyday, I mean 155+ games guys. Holliday and Henderson aren’t going to be out of the lineup or platooned or anything like that.

Mayo crushes righties and lefties. Same with Kjerstad and Cowser.

Now obviously these guys will get days off but we need to start understanding that at bats are going to get harder to come by in certain spots. That hasn’t been the case recently but it will be going forward.

[spiritof66]

I hope there's a future All-Star CFer in that infield group. I haven't seen enough and don't know enough about them to know who the strongest CF candidates are, but it seems that all are possibilities. My impression is that if  Gunnar or Ortiz is the regular at SS, the value of Holliday's speed and defensive ability would be  greater in CF than at 2B or 3B. I don't know about the OF arm or his willingness to learn a new position.

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

2022 was really an outlier for Mateo defensively. He was a very inconsistent defender up until 2022 and then was an inconsistent defender in 2023. It's not overly surprising that he regressed closer to his norms. 

That’s why I said “talented” in that he’s  extremely gifted. The combination of his range and arm are exceptional. He hasn’t played with consistency outside of 2022. 

I’m not talking about what the Orioles should do here - they should have already moved on from Mateo at the trade deadline to make room for Ortiz, and still should this offseason. I’m talking about Henderson’s viewpoint in that I think it’s easier for somebody like Henderson to accept playing 3B when the player at SS has a skill set like Mateo’s, even if they aren’t actually a consistent defender.

Mateo can make plays at SS that Henderson cannot and I think that creates a type of respect that probably lessens the frustration. Ortiz may be in that same category. I’m not sure if Holliday will be. 

[NCRaven]

2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I hope there's a future All-Star CFer in that infield group. I haven't seen enough and don't know enough about them to know who the strongest CF candidates are, but it seems that all are possibilities. My impression is that if  Gunnar or Ortiz is the regular at SS, the value of Holliday's speed and defensive ability would be  greater in CF than at 2B or 3B. I don't know about the OF arm or his willingness to learn a new position.

I had thought the same about Holliday.  However, I don't think they used the 1-1 pick thinking about changing his position that radically.  And, I don't think that they used a first round pick on Bradfield thinking he'd be a fourth outfielder.  He might end up there, an outfield version of Mateo if he doesn't hit.  But they probably have high hopes for a better outcome.

[spiritof66]

11 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I had thought the same about Holliday.  However, I don't think they used the 1-1 pick thinking about changing his position that radically.  And, I don't think that they used a first round pick on Bradfield thinking he'd be a fourth outfielder.  He might end up there, an outfield version of Mateo if he doesn't hit.  But they probably have high hopes for a better outcome.

I don't disagree with any of that, though I don't see any reason to be stuck with the reasoning behind drafting Holliday. The other thing is that, if the LF wall isn't moved in, there will be a lot of value in having two really fast OFers. 

[NCRaven]

9 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I don't disagree with any of that, though I don't see any reason to be stuck with the reasoning behind drafting Holliday. The other thing is that, if the LF wall isn't moved in, there will be a lot of value in having two really fast OFers. 

The best thing is that the O's have drafted a lot of talented players that give them plenty of options.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I did not find the 2023 version of Mateo to be a clearly supremely talented defender.

Advanced fielding metrics agree on that sentiment with Mateo. Unless Elias trades away some players, I think Mateo is going to have a hard time sticking on the 26 man roster through the end of next season.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-mateo/17273/stats#fielding

[NCRaven]

I like Hyde.  I'm glad he's here.  But I do wonder about his preference for giving playing time to players like Frazier, well after he stopped hitting as well as he did early in the season, and Odor.  They say Dusty Baker might leave Houston over disagreements with the front office and their use of metrics in recommending playing time.  Dusty balked at using their rookie catcher over his favored veteran.  Now, we don't have any indication that Elias was displeased with Hyde's decisions there.  But, situations like that do make me wonder.  Of course, Elias could always pull a Money Ball and trade away a player if he thought that Hyde was using him too much.  And, he didn't do that in either case.

[spiritof66]

4 hours ago, NCRaven said:

The best thing is that the O's have drafted a lot of talented players that give them plenty of options.

That's true. But those options create the need to make decisions: What infielders will be traded? Who is going to be the SS? When will Ortiz be promoted, and how will he get playing time? How can CF be improved if an injury-free Mullins still doesn't hit? The Orioles have been slow in making those decisions, and some of them really need to be addressed pretty soon.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

That's true. But those options create the need to make decisions: What infielders will be traded? Who is going to be the SS? When will Ortiz be promoted, and how will he get playing time? How can CF be improved if an injury-free Mullins still doesn't hit? The Orioles have been slow in making those decisions, and some of them really need to be addressed pretty soon.

Based on the O's winning 101 games I would say their moves or lack on them have been more strategic than slow.  

[Sydnor]

12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

The most tantalizing alignment, for me, is 3B Mayo, SS Henderson, 2B Holliday.    That probably has the highest offensive upside.  Mayo just needs to not be a defensive liability at 3B.

I’m not a scout, but I’ve seen Mayo play several times in Norfolk. I don’t think he is a liability at third right now. He moves well to balls down the line and toward the hole. Everyone knows his arm strength. I think I only saw him commit one error in the games I attended. He’s an athlete. He might not be Manny or Gunnar at third, but I don’t know why anyone would think he’d be a minus defensively at the position. I think Tony said you would have to live with some errors or erratic play and I’m sure he’s correct, but Mayo at third isn’t like Mark Trumbo in the outfield.

I think the alignment you suggest is very possible and agree that it has the highest offensive upside. I personally would love to see it.

[CaptainRedbeard]

17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The problem with the thought that Westburg will just play everywhere is that the Os are starting to get guys up here who are and will be everyday guys.

And by everyday, I mean 155+ games guys. Holliday and Henderson aren’t going to be out of the lineup or platooned or anything like that.

Mayo crushes righties and lefties. Same with Kjerstad and Cowser.

Now obviously these guys will get days off but we need to start understanding that at bats are going to get harder to come by in certain spots. That hasn’t been the case recently but it will be going forward.

I see a few factors affecting whether the Orioles could view “utility Westburg” as a path forward.

1) Will the Orioles want to rotate Henderson and Holliday through DH? Gunnar played 150 games this year, with some of those off the bench. He started 132 games at 3B/SS and 11 at DH. He wasn’t ever placed on the IL.  If Holliday plays with the same usage, that’s 60 starts available at 2B/3B between the two of them. However if the Orioles instead prefer to switch to more of a set DH or only use 1B/corner OF bats there, some of those starts will dry up.

If not and Westburg were to pick up another 20-30 starts at 2B/3B from whoever the other IF is, that’s at least a half season of starts at 2B/3B. It’s not getting full value from Westburg, but he could still get a full season of playing time and be an asset defensively in the OF/1B for another 50+ starts if Cowser/Kjerstad/Mayo/whoever are used the same way rotating through DH.

2) Who are the other infielders? If Mayo is not a 3B and Norby is not a 2B, then Ortiz is the only competition. Urias will be 30 next year and had a worse xwOBA this year (.281) than Mateo (.292), who will be 29 himself. Urias was really buoyed by a super high BABIP masking a big drop in power. They are acceptable bench pieces for now but shouldn’t be taking playing time away from Westburg, Ortiz and Holliday in 2024.

3) The Orioles value “deep depth.” It’s always a balancing act between providing opportunity for the best/most promising players to achieve optimal value and having depth in case of injury. Everything Elias has done suggests he tilts much more toward the depth side. That could mean they think it’s worth it to have to play Westburg down the defensive spectrum part time in order to have more depth in case of injury.

The Orioles have a need at SP and they are going to get more value out of trading one of Westburg and Ortiz, and likely Norby as well, to address that. But if they instead clear out Urias and/or Mateo to make space, there’s going to be opportunity for Westburg to still play a lot of 2B/3B (if they hold to their preferences for rotating DH and building “deep depth”) UNLESS Ortiz, Mayo or Norby become 150+ game starters at 2B/SS/3B. Judging by the fact that they did not call up Ortiz when they should have last year and the significant defensive questions for Mayo and Norby, it’s hard to know how confident the Orioles are feeling about that right now. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I see a few factors affecting whether the Orioles could view “utility Westburg” as a path forward.

1) Will the Orioles want to rotate Henderson and Holliday through DH? Gunnar played 150 games this year, with some of those off the bench. He started 132 games at 3B/SS and 11 at DH. He wasn’t ever placed on the IL.  If Holliday plays with the same usage, that’s 60 starts available at 2B/3B between the two of them. However if the Orioles instead prefer to switch to more of a set DH or only use 1B/corner OF bats there, some of those starts will dry up.

If not and Westburg were to pick up another 20-30 starts at 2B/3B from whoever the other IF is, that’s at least a half season of starts at 2B/3B. It’s not getting full value from Westburg, but he could still get a full season of playing time and be an asset defensively in the OF/1B for another 50+ starts if Cowser/Kjerstad/Mayo/whoever are used the same way rotating through DH.

2) Who are the other infielders? If Mayo is not a 3B and Norby is not a 2B, then Ortiz is the only competition. Urias will be 30 next year and had a worse xwOBA this year (.281) than Mateo (.292), who will be 29 himself. Urias was really buoyed by a super high BABIP masking a big drop in power. They are acceptable bench pieces for now but shouldn’t be taking playing time away from Westburg, Ortiz and Holliday in 2024.

3) The Orioles value “deep depth.” It’s always a balancing act between providing opportunity for the best/most promising players to achieve optimal value and having depth in case of injury. Everything Elias has done suggests he tilts much more toward the depth side. That could mean they think it’s worth it to have to play Westburg down the defensive spectrum part time in order to have more depth in case of injury.

The Orioles have a need at SP and they are going to get more value out of trading one of Westburg and Ortiz, and likely Norby as well, to address that. But if they instead clear out Urias and/or Mateo to make space, there’s going to be opportunity for Westburg to still play a lot of 2B/3B (if they hold to their preferences for rotating DH and building “deep depth”) UNLESS Ortiz, Mayo or Norby become 150+ game starters at 2B/SS/3B. Judging by the fact that they did not call up Ortiz when they should have last year and the significant defensive questions for Mayo and Norby, it’s hard to know how confident the Orioles are feeling about that right now. 

You aren’t playing him enough in this scenario though.

People (not saying you persay) have to get out of the mindset that the only way we get value out of a young player/prospect is by playing them.

Westburg could be the main piece (or one of the main pieces) to obtain a pitcher that gives us 30+ starts or another position player that could be more impactful.

That is more important than a guy who plays 80-100 games. 
 

There is no reason, unless every team in the sport just doesn’t value them, where a scenario should play out where we have one of Ortiz/Westburg is starting and the other one is playing occasionally. That’s too much talent and too much value that you aren’t getting enough out of. 
 

Westburg is an IFer and he’s a very good one. There is no need to make him something he’s not. I’m not even saying he can’t play the OF. I’m sure he could but for this team and the construction of this team coming up, we don’t need him out there. Sure, he could spell guys every once in a while. I can see that but why? Play him everyday at his best position or trade him.

[wildcard]

There seems to an assumption that because Holliday is 1:1 he is ready to play 2B in the majors at a high level.   That isn't necessarily true.   He  has played 25 games in the minors at 2B and he did not play 2B at the level we saw from Westburg in the majors.

I think there is a good chance that Westburg begins the season playing 2B for the O's.   Holliday begins the season playing   2B for Norfolk.   

Holliday may be ready to take over 2B sometime early in the 2024 season but I don't think he is there yet.

[btdart20]

40 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I see a few factors affecting whether the Orioles could view “utility Westburg” as a path forward.

1) Will the Orioles want to rotate Henderson and Holliday through DH? Gunnar played 150 games this year, with some of those off the bench. He started 132 games at 3B/SS and 11 at DH. He wasn’t ever placed on the IL.  If Holliday plays with the same usage, that’s 60 starts available at 2B/3B between the two of them. However if the Orioles instead prefer to switch to more of a set DH or only use 1B/corner OF bats there, some of those starts will dry up.

If not and Westburg were to pick up another 20-30 starts at 2B/3B from whoever the other IF is, that’s at least a half season of starts at 2B/3B. It’s not getting full value from Westburg, but he could still get a full season of playing time and be an asset defensively in the OF/1B for another 50+ starts if Cowser/Kjerstad/Mayo/whoever are used the same way rotating through DH.

2) Who are the other infielders? If Mayo is not a 3B and Norby is not a 2B, then Ortiz is the only competition. Urias will be 30 next year and had a worse xwOBA this year (.281) than Mateo (.292), who will be 29 himself. Urias was really buoyed by a super high BABIP masking a big drop in power. They are acceptable bench pieces for now but shouldn’t be taking playing time away from Westburg, Ortiz and Holliday in 2024.

3) The Orioles value “deep depth.” It’s always a balancing act between providing opportunity for the best/most promising players to achieve optimal value and having depth in case of injury. Everything Elias has done suggests he tilts much more toward the depth side. That could mean they think it’s worth it to have to play Westburg down the defensive spectrum part time in order to have more depth in case of injury.

The Orioles have a need at SP and they are going to get more value out of trading one of Westburg and Ortiz, and likely Norby as well, to address that. But if they instead clear out Urias and/or Mateo to make space, there’s going to be opportunity for Westburg to still play a lot of 2B/3B (if they hold to their preferences for rotating DH and building “deep depth”) UNLESS Ortiz, Mayo or Norby become 150+ game starters at 2B/SS/3B. Judging by the fact that they did not call up Ortiz when they should have last year and the significant defensive questions for Mayo and Norby, it’s hard to know how confident the Orioles are feeling about that right now. 

I suspect Adley will have fewer PAs in 2024.

I suspect Holliday gets the same long leash that Gunnar got.  With similar selective days off during the adjustment period.

Your points 2 and 3 are co-mingled too.  It's the chicken/egg question of "Does the Rookie Integration Plan set the pace for the roster churn?  Or does roster stability of a competitive 95+ win team set the pace for the Rookie Integration Plan?"  In 2023, it was a measured integration.  Do they get more aggressive in the RIP as the floor/ceiling for a more positions have grown?