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Cease vs everyone else

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Chicago White Sox Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Chicago White Sox

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30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I tend to agree but guys like, for example, Norby, Stowers and Povich have upside to be impact players but there is obviously more risk and less of a certainty.

Do they want 1-2 guys with 3-5 WAR potential or do they want 3-5 guys with 1-5 WAR potential?  
 

 

Who are these second tier prospects with 5 WAR potential?

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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

I'm just catching up on this but we know how Elias and company share information outside of their inner circle. They don't. We've heard from players many times say they don't hear from the Orioles abo

btdart20
btdart20
Spy Fox
Spy Fox

@Sports Guyis so prolific, he's the #3 poster on the Soxtalk thread despite joining on page 102 of 149. He's also the #1 poster in this thread, so potentially on track to be the #1 poster on both team

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Chicago White Sox Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Chicago White Sox

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Wow, that Nola contract just shows how costly high end pitching will be this winter.  No doubt Nola has a longer track record, but he is coming off a very similar season to Cease and just got a monster deal.  He may have even taken less to go back to Philadelphia and still exceeded MLBTR & Fangraphs’ contract projections.

Also, FWIW, Nightengale is reporting that Dodgers are pursing Cease.  While I’m sure that is our side trying to create leverage through the media, it does suggest there are active discussions happening and that a potential deal could come before the Winter meetings.

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wow, that Nola contract just shows how costly high end pitching will be this winter.  No doubt Nola has a longer track record, but he is coming off a very similar season to Cease and just got a monster deal.  He may have even taken less to go back to Philadelphia and still exceeded MLBTR & Fangraphs’ contract projections.

Also, FWIW, Nightengale is reporting that Dodgers are pursing Cease.  While I’m sure that is our side trying to create leverage through the media, it does suggest there are active discussions happening and that a potential deal could come before the Winter meetings.

Spotrac has Cease getting $8.3 million in 2024 with another year of control afterward.  That's pretty cheap, and given that, my guess that a dozen teams will at least check in with 4-5 showing genuine interest.  I think the Sox will get good value regardless and the only question is which way Getz wants to go.  The O's have lots of flexibility to put together different kinds of deals which is why I like their chances.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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35 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Who are these second tier prospects with 5 WAR potential?

No, I mean you if still get a guy like Cowser or Ortiz but the rest of the deal is filled in with the larger question marks/ML players.

But guys like Norby and Stowers can be 2-3 WAR guys and that’s valuable.

When you see larger deals in MLB, you almost always see a ML player in the deal. We, as fans, may not like that but it happens and it happens quite frequently.  I’m guessing most WS fans would have rather have gotten some kind of a lottery ticket prospect vs Nicky Lopez but the team valued that Ml contributor.

Will they keep up with that same thought?  Is a guy like Dean Kremer valuable to them? A decent starter who eats innings and has a lot of service time. I’m sure you would rather have Connor Norby but again, the ML team may not feel that way.

 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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32 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wow, that Nola contract just shows how costly high end pitching will be this winter.  No doubt Nola has a longer track record, but he is coming off a very similar season to Cease and just got a monster deal.  He may have even taken less to go back to Philadelphia and still exceeded MLBTR & Fangraphs’ contract projections.

Also, FWIW, Nightengale is reporting that Dodgers are pursing Cease.  While I’m sure that is our side trying to create leverage through the media, it does suggest there are active discussions happening and that a potential deal could come before the Winter meetings.

You wonder if the WS wait for some of the top FA to sign?

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Chicago White Sox Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Chicago White Sox

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16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You wonder if the WS wait for some of the top FA to sign?

I think this deal makes it pretty clear what free agent pitching is going to cost and my guess is many teams quickly pivot to the trade market to get ahead of the curve there.  Obviously there could be a bit more leverage by waiting, but I’d rather move quickly with a larger pool of theoretical buyers if I feel I have the more desirable trade asset (which I believe we have if the Mariners aren’t dealing their young arms).

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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45 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think this deal makes it pretty clear what free agent pitching is going to cost and my guess is many teams quickly pivot to the trade market to get ahead of the curve there.  Obviously there could be a bit more leverage by waiting, but I’d rather move quickly with a larger pool of theoretical buyers if I feel I have the more desirable trade asset (which I believe we have if the Mariners aren’t dealing their young arms).

Elias will do the old Orioles standard of percolating until all the good players are signed or traded. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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9 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

And first round exit in the playoffs.

The fact is, having a stud FA starter wouldn’t have won us that Rangers series.   And getting one now or not won’t necessarily determine whether we win a playoff series next year.  I’d like to get someone, but making the playoffs and then getting somewhere depends on a whole array of things going well, and no one thing will decide it.  

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dystopia Hangout Grand Counsel

dystopia

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The fact is, having a stud FA starter wouldn’t have won us that Rangers series.   And getting one now or not won’t necessarily determine whether we win a playoff series next year.  I’d like to get someone, but making the playoffs and then getting somewhere depends on a whole array of things going well, and no one thing will decide it.  

Agree 100%. Amazing how “the playoffs are a crapshoot” suddenly went out the window. 

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