Cease vs everyone else

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Kremer. He’s a bulldog. That was great for the previous iterations of the O’s. Now we need to shoot for some ceiling. Sell high. Buy low.

Kremer is a good pitcher, he's going to improve this year, I believe. In the words of Buck Showalter, we're lucky to have him. He's really undervalued on this site.

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Let’s stick with Cowser and Ortiz for a second.  How is that an absurd overpay for 2 years of Cease?    I could certainly argue that Hall and Cowser are close in value and that Hall is more important to the 2024 Orioles than Cowser.   It can also be argued that 2 years of Cease has more value than one year of Burnes.

Well, in the end of the day, we got the better pitcher while giving up lesser prospects.  Now the years might change the equation some, but my point 300 pages has so far held to be true: The White Sox won't receive a significantly better prospect as a headliner than Joey Ortiz for Cease.

 

Edit: Unless you want to argue that Hall is equivalent in value to Cowser.  You could make that case, but I don't think it's a strong one.  Also important to note, most were willing to add to Cowser/Ortiz, many significantly, i.e. Povich.  Elias played the waiting game and it worked out well for the Orioles.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 You think that but that doesn’t mean it’s reality. 

I think the most logical conclusion is that they value Hall the most because they believe he’s a starting pitcher and, all things being equal, pitching just fetches more even if hitters are more reliable.

I personally think you can argue which piece is the most valuable and that includes the draft pick, which also means more draft pool money. Both those things have value too.

Im not sure this deal has an actual headliner. I think it’s just 3 pieces of relative equal value that is a fair trade for one year of a player.  Cease would and should have cost more. This was the smarter route to take because Burnes is better and you got to keep your better prospects. It would have been nice to have the extra year of Cease but the cost difference likely wasn’t worth it.

And yeah, this is all fine.  My point isn't necessarily that Ortiz is more valuable than Hall, though I certainly think he is, or even that the Brewers value Ortiz more than Hall, which appears maybe they don't.

My point is that you didn't have to give up a better prospect than Joey Ortiz to significantly upgrade the rotation.  I said that 300 pages ago, and that proved to be true.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

And yeah, this is all fine.  My point isn't necessarily that Ortiz is more valuable than Hall, though I certainly think he is, or even that the Brewers value Ortiz more than Hall, which appears maybe they don't.

My point is that you didn't have to give up a better prospect than Joey Ortiz to significantly upgrade the rotation.  I said that 300 pages ago, and that proved to be true.

Well to be fair, when that was being discussed, we weren’t talking about one year rentals. That conversation was largely around Cease and they absolutely had to give up someone better than Ortiz or Hall to headline that deal.

 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

Kremer is a good pitcher, he's going to improve this year, I believe. In the words of Buck Showalter, we're lucky to have him. He's really undervalued on this site.

Hard to ask for more from your #5 pitcher.

That said, imagine a scenario in which Means is your #5. Sheeeesh... 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

You do know the Orioles would get two years of Cease though, right? 

I doubt Mayo or Basallo were ever in consideration by Elias, but I would have sent Kjerstad or Cowser as the headliner for two years of Cease. I know Cease is coming off a down year a bit, but he's a great bounce back candidate. 

Two years of Cease may be more valuable than Burnes.  That could be argued either way.  Burnes is definitely the better pitcher but two years is better than one.  Of course, a lot of it is dependent on things we don't know: Namely, which Cease shows up from year to year.

I know what people, including yourself, were willing to do for Cease.  My point is that Elias got a better pitcher while giving up less than most were willing to.  Sure it's for one year and not two, but tbh, because of where we are competitively, I'd take the better pitcher with the shorter window.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well to be fair, when that was being discussed, we weren’t talking about one year rentals. That conversation was largely around Cease and they absolutely had to give up someone better than Ortiz or Hall to headline that deal.

 

Until the Sox actually materialize a better prospect than Ortiz or Hall for Cease, then I don't think it is possible to say the O's definitely have to beat that package.  We'll see what they get when they finally move Cease.  As I predicted so long ago, they're going to be disappointed.

[Big Mac]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Kremer. He’s a bulldog. That was great for the previous iterations of the O’s. Now we need to shoot for some ceiling. Sell high. Buy low.

Without researching every teams projected rotation right now, I'd bet there are about 26-27 teams at least that would kill to have Dean Kremer as their #5 starter.

I'd turn the focus to getting another impact reliever. 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Then perhaps you’ll explain why the Brewers’ press release lists Hall first and discusses him first.  
https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-corbin-burnes-traded-to-baltimore#:~:text=Send Right-Handed Pitcher Corbin Burnes to the Orioles&text=MILWAUKEE - The Milwaukee Brewers have,right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes.

Well, maybe they do.  I think they're wrong, but whatever.  It doesn't really detract from my point.

The Orioles were able to significantly upgrade their rotation and the best prospect they lost was Joey Ortiz.  They were not forced to part with one of the top 5 outfielder picks, nor did they have to go into their top 3.  I said they should be able to do that, and they were.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Without researching every teams projected rotation right now, I'd bet there are about 26-27 teams at least that would kill to have Dean Kremer as their #5 starter.

I'd turn the focus to getting another impact reliever. 

Change that number to 30.  There is not team in MLB whose rotation wouldn't be upgraded by the addition of Dean Kremer.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

In his recent comments, Mike said they would be "opportunistic" but that they're "no longer on a mission" with regards to starting pitching. 

Elias shoots pretty straight if you know how to read between his lines. So to me it seems like the rotation is set unless something really just falls in their lap. 

He echoed similar things about the bullpen but in less certain terms IMO. I think they are still looking for a bullpen piece. 

I read that as, if you come way down on your asking price for Cease we'll listen, but we've got our guy.

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Two years of Cease may be more valuable than Burnes.  That could be argued either way.  Burnes is definitely the better pitcher but two years is better than one.  Of course, a lot of it is dependent on things we don't know: Namely, which Cease shows up from year to year.

I know what people, including yourself, were willing to do for Cease.  My point is that Elias got a better pitcher while giving up less than most were willing to.  Sure it's for one year and not two, but tbh, because of where we are competitively, I'd take the better pitcher with the shorter window.

Just to be clear, I'm 100% behind the Burnes trade and like it better than a deal for Cease that would include Cowser or Kjerstad. Just saying that I don't think Ortiz would have headlined a deal for two years of Cease.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Until the Sox actually materialize a better prospect than Ortiz or Hall for Cease, then I don't think it is possible to say the O's definitely have to beat that package.  We'll see what they get when they finally move Cease.  As I predicted so long ago, they're going to be disappointed.

That absolutely have to beat that package or else they would have Cease. 
 

I think they will be able to get the Yankees to pay up if they don’t get Snell or Montgomery.

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Just to be clear, I'm 100% behind the Burnes trade and like it better than a deal for Cease that would include Cowser or Kjerstad. Just saying that I don't think Ortiz would have headlined a deal for two years of Cease.

Well, the White Sox are stupid. 

As I'm about to say to Sports Guy, we'll see what they get when they move him, but they're not going to get a top 20 guy and a top 60 guy, which is imo an equivalent Cowser/Ortiz deal.  And if the O's had offered Hall/Ortiz for Cease, which seems likely, they should have hopped all over it.

[Pickles]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That absolutely have to beat that package or else they would have Cease. 
 

I think they will be able to get the Yankees to pay up if they don’t get Snell or Montgomery.

We'll see what they get.  I still don't believe they'll get a top 20ish guy for him.  

The only variable is if they keep him this season and he has a very strong first half.  Then ok, yeah, they'll do better than what the O's offered likely.  But that's a hell of a risk for them.

 

Edit: If you were the White Sox would you have accepted Ortiz/Hall for Cease?  I would have.

Edited February 2 by Pickles