Cease vs everyone else

[OriolesMagic83]

I would really like Cease on the 2024 O's.  I don't think Elias will trade one of his "prize" prospects of Holliday, Basallo, or Mayo for him, and I don't think he should.  Some team will probably overpay for him and Elias will pass.  I don't care how the O's do it, they just need to add a #2/3 starter to solidify the rotation.  It will be interesting to see where Cease goes.  A trade to the Yankees sounds possible in my mind, centered around Jasson Dominguez.  He would be better than anyone the O's would give up.  Traditionally the Yankees haven't valued prospects that high and The Hal Steinbreener Yankees have valued keeping payroll to a high but not higher than any team level.  Trading for Cease would allow the Yankees to focus on adding offense and not add any starting pitching.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

If we could be as confident that Cease was closer to the 22 than 23 version we’d have a deal.  There’s reason to hope.  What’s the reason to “fully expect”?

I fully expect it because I believe his issues last year to be mechanical and he has proven in the past to be willing to put in the work in the off-season to fix and/or enhance his offerings.  

That being said, I view my proposal as being the price for two cheap years of a #2 starter.  I view him last year as a #3 type guy and he was a legit ace in 2022.  As such, I’m valuing him somewhere in between.  If he repeated his 2022 season last year, we’d be talking about far more costly package.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Ripken said:

IMHO... the majority position here is that, though it's close, Kjerstad>Cowser and Westburg>Ortiz.  Not everyone will agree on that but I think most do.  All four are good prospects and, of course, none are sure things.  That's just what it feels like to me.  That's mostly based on Westburg doing a solid job in Baltimore last year and Cowser struggling (though obviously in SSS).  I'm not worried about Cowser's bat but I do like Kjerstad's bat more and Cowser's defense was alarming, especially for someone who we believe is a good OF.

So, I'd be fine with Cowser/Ortiz (with a lesser 3rd) and would simply not do Kjerstad/Westburg.  Maybe we'll all find out what Elias and the Sox think.

Great post and wanted to give a like, but apparently I’m out of them for the day.

But I fully agree, although I didn’t realize there were defensive issues with Cowser.  That is a bit alarming, but I’d still probably do him + Ortiz + lesser piece.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I fully expect it because I believe his issues last year to be mechanical and he has proven in the past to be willing to put in the work in the off-season to fix and/or enhance his offerings.  

That being said, I view my proposal as being the price for two cheap years of a #2 starter.  I view him last year as a #3 type guy and he was a legit ace in 2022.  As such, I’m valuing him somewhere in between.  If he repeated his 2022 season last year, we’d be talking about far more costly package.

And the problem is that has been more like a 3 for most of his career. The walks, lack of IP, the inconsistencies, etc…

What 2022 does is his increase his value because it shows the possibility but that’s very clearly an outlier year so far.

How much more are teams willing to pay for because of 2022?  If you are paying for the other years, you may not get a top 100 guy or, if they are, they would be towards the back end of the top 100 (I’m talking about the lead player in the package).

So, how much more is he worth because of 2022? That’s really the question and with so many pitchers available via free agency this year and others in trade, the value may not be as high as WS fans hope.

You actually can make the argument that waiting until the deadline is what’s best but that’s risky.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Great post and wanted to give a like, but apparently I’m out of them for the day.

But I fully agree, although I didn’t realize there were defensive issues with Cowser.  That is a bit alarming, but I’d still probably do him + Ortiz + lesser piece.

There aren’t defensive issues. He isn’t a CFer and he didn’t show that well defensively in his short time here but no scouting report believes he’s not good defensively. 
 

It’s an adjustment and he wasn’t getting results at the plate, so I’m sure he had some fielding issues because of that..just as Gunnar did earlier in the season.

[24fps]

32 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would really like Cease on the 2024 O's.  I don't think Elias will trade one of his "prize" prospects of Holliday, Basallo, or Mayo for him, and I don't think he should.  Some team will probably overpay for him and Elias will pass.  I don't care how the O's do it, they just need to add a #2/3 starter to solidify the rotation.  It will be interesting to see where Cease goes.  A trade to the Yankees sounds possible in my mind, centered around Jasson Dominguez.  He would be better than anyone the O's would give up.  Traditionally the Yankees haven't valued prospects that high and The Hal Steinbreener Yankees have valued keeping payroll to a high but not higher than any team level.  Trading for Cease would allow the Yankees to focus on adding offense and not add any starting pitching.

Would you consider Kjerstad, Ortiz and a respectable but unspectacular pitcher from AA or below to be an overpay on the Orioles part?  If so by how much?  Personally, I think starting pitching is expensive and this deal reflects real-world trade prices so if it's an overpay, it's not by much.  The O's need another starter and the price is affordable whether it's an overpay or not.  I also think this deal is desirable because I don't think the O's will go more than three years on a FA deal for a pitcher and that thins the available talent pool considerably.

It looks like the White Sox are going to make a lot of players available, not just Cease.  If their GM is smart enough to take a holistic approach to their rebuild, then they will be looking at all potential returns, not just the one for Cease in a vacuum.  I like the O's chances if this is the way Elias want to go.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And the problem is that has been more like a 3 for most of his career. The walks, lack of IP, the inconsistencies, etc…

What 2022 does is his increase his value because it shows the possibility but that’s very clearly an outlier year so far.

How much more are teams willing to pay for because of 2022?  If you are paying for the other years, you may not get a top 100 guy or, if they are, they would be towards the back end of the top 100 (I’m talking about the lead player in the package).

So, how much more is he worth because of 2022? That’s really the question and with so many pitchers available via free agency this year and others in trade, the value may not be as high as WS fans hope.

You actually can make the argument that waiting until the deadline is what’s best but that’s risky.

The reason I don’t view 2022 as an outlier is because he worked on his slider going into the season and greatly increased its usage.  And that pitch became the most valuable in Statcast history.  Last year, his release point on the slider changed and so did its shape and his command of it.  The spin rate was still the same though, so I believe the potential to get is mostly back is there.  So while I don’t think it’s fair to price him as an ace obviously, I don’t think using his pre 2022 is relevant either.

Holding to the deadline is risky simply because he is pitcher and you just never when injury can strike, so would rather take #2 value now if it can be had (which I believe it can since there aren’t a ton of TOR starters in free agency and they will be super expensive).

[Sports Guy]

41 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The reason I don’t view 2022 as an outlier is because he worked on his slider going into the season and greatly increased its usage.  And that pitch became the most valuable in Statcast history.  Last year, his release point on the slider changed and so did its shape and his command of it.  The spin rate was still the same though, so I believe the potential to get is mostly back is there.  So while I don’t think it’s fair to price him as an ace obviously, I don’t think using his pre 2022 is relevant either.

Holding to the deadline is risky simply because he is pitcher and you just never when injury can strike, so would rather take #2 value now if it can be had (which I believe it can since there aren’t a ton of TOR starters in free agency and they will be super expensive).

I get your reasoning but that simply isn’t accurate. YOU may not view it as an outlier but stats and his historical performance say it was clearly an outlier.

And the idea that he couldn’t  back it up is a big deal. 

And I agree that they should trade him but if the WS were as confident as you are and he performs at a high level, he will be worth more at the deadline than he is now.

[Chicago White Sox]

58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I get your reasoning but that simply isn’t accurate. YOU may not view it as an outlier but stats and his historical performance say it was clearly an outlier.

And the idea that he couldn’t  back it up is a big deal. 

And I agree that they should trade him but if the WS were as confident as you are and he performs at a high level, he will be worth more at the deadline than he is now.

I’ll stand by what I said.  If you’re able to make changes to a pitch and it becomes the best pitch in Statcast history, then your previous seasons don’t really matter because fundamentally you are no longer the same pitcher.  That’s just the reality of how modern pitching works.  Now, I’m not suggesting he’ll 100% regain that slider, but I’m highly confident it will at minimum partially return to form.  No guarantees there obviously, but a GM has to make their own evaluation and decide how much expected improvement they’re willing to bake into an offer.  I can assure you there will be some GMs who value Cease somewhere in between his 2022 & 2023 form.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Chicago White Sox

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ll stand by what I said.  If you’re able to make changes to a pitch and it becomes the best pitch in Statcast history, then your previous seasons don’t really matter because fundamentally you are no longer the same pitcher.  That’s just the reality of how modern pitching works.  Now, I’m not suggesting he’ll 100% regain that slider, but I’m highly confident it will at minimum partially return to form.  No guarantees there obviously, but a GM has to make their own evaluation and decide how much expected improvement they’re willing to bake into an offer.  I can assure you there will be some GMs who value Cease somewhere in between his 2022 & 2023 form.

Well, with that new pitch in 2023, his K rate was his lowest since 2020.  His ERA+ was his worst since 2019. His BB rate and str% were the worst since 2020.

His swing strike% the worst since 2020. And his statcast numbers were more in line with the rest of his career vs the off the chart numbers he had in 2022.

You keep talking about the slider and I’m not saying you aren’t saying something valid but it’s very naive to say 2022 wasn’t an outlier and that we should ignore his career up until that point.  
 

Right now, it looks like that pitch was a one year wonder. 
 

No one is trading for him and say, let’s ignore everything because he threw a really good slider in one year of his career.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, with that new pitch in 2023, his K rate was his lowest since 2020.  His ERA+ was his worst since 2019. His BB rate and str% were the worst since 2020.

His swing strike% the worst since 2020. And his statcast numbers were more in line with the rest of his career vs the off the chart numbers he had in 2022.

You keep talking about the slider and I’m not saying you aren’t saying something valid but it’s very naive to say 2022 wasn’t an outlier and that we should ignore his career up until that point.  
 

Right now, it looks like that pitch was a one year wonder. 
 

No one is trading for him and say, let’s ignore everything because he threw a really good slider in one year of his career.

I’m not suggesting you ignore last year because the pitch mix was very similar to 2022 and he was less productive.  I just feel there is reason to believe that his issues were mechanical and can be fixed.  

And all my comments are simply how I would assess things if I were a GM.  I admittedly am more of an optimist and am willing to gamble on upside and positive regression with players if I have solid reason to believe so.  However, we all have different risk vs. reward tolerances and I totally get that others may feel differently betting on guys to rebound.

[Frobby]

As an outside observer of Cease, I wouldn’t pay a price that assumes he’s going to revert to 2022.   But I don’t think the deals we’ve been discussing are based on that premise.  

[forphase1]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As an outside observer of Cease, I wouldn’t pay a price that assumes he’s going to revert to 2022.   But I don’t think the deals we’ve been discussing are based on that premise.  

I just have a hard time giving up 2 of our top 10 prospects for what I view as likely #3 starter.  I'll gladly give up one of Kjerstad/Cowser/Westburg/Ortiz but not 2 of them.   Then I'd add a couple in the 11-20 range and a lottery ticket or two if there are any that the Sox are interested in.   But if I'm giving up 2 of the top 10 guys in what is the top farm system in baseball I want someone I can pencil in as a solid #2.  While I think Cease would improve with our defense behind him,  I would expect a year similar to this one,  that's more or less in line with his career numbers.   I'd love to have him on the team,  but only if the price makes sense. If Cowser/Norby/Povich+ does it,  then great. 

[health55]

On 11/17/2023 at 5:17 AM, Frobby said:

Fair points.  I’ll temper it just a bit by noting that Seattle is a tough place to hit.  Seattle had a major league average team OPS off .734, but that equates to 106 OPS+.  And, 1B Ty France had a bad year (99 OPS+), but he’s still in his prime and has been good other years (125 OPS+ in 2022, 115 for his career).  Still, they do have some glaring holes.  

Indeed the Seattle Mariners hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 106 and team ERA+ of 109.

As points of reference, this year the Orioles posted an OPS+ of 107 and an ERA+ of 106.

Seattle and the AL West favor pitchers while Baltimore and the AL East favor hitters.

 

[health55]

On 11/16/2023 at 2:45 PM, dystopia said:

I have some reservations about Mr. Take Me Out After 90 Pitches. Needless to say it has nothing to do with his numbers. 

George Kirby exceeded 90 pitches in 17 of his 31 starts this year, topping 100 pitches five times.

Logan Gilbert exceeded 90 pitches in 21 of his 32 starts this year, tossing at least 100 pitches in four starts.