Cease vs everyone else

[OriolesMagic83]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Assuming Elias has actually made an offer for Cease here’s my guess and why.

Norby, Beavers, Povich, Baumann

1. A low ball offer but along the lines of the Flaherty deal, quantity but with a better grade of prospects.

2. A WS “insider” said that Getz wanted Norby.  Our Husker fan mentioned Povich was available even though he mentioned a different team.

3. Beavers is behind Cowser, Kjerstad, and maybe even Mayo for COF.

4. Baumann is out of options, in danger of not making our bullpen, but easily makes the WS, also cheap with tons of service time.  Can even try starting him again.

White Sox holding out for a headliner like Basallo, Mayo, or Kjerstad.  Rumors are that big 3, + Kjerstad/Cowser are not on the table.

From an Oriole fan perspective, anyone, I think, would do this deal in a NY minute.  Getz can’t do it without one big prospect name coming back.   No other team seems willing to step up (Red Sox with Mayer/Anthony), (Reds with Marte), (Yankees with Jones).   Does Getz cave in for the best deal out there?   Does Elias substitute Kjerstad for Beavers (and possibly Ortiz for Norby) to make it happen?    
 

 

If the WS were smart they would go for a deal like this, trying to fill 4 or more long term positions in one trade.  If I were the WS, I would be trying to get Ortiz/Westburg, Norby, Povich/McDermott, and an OF prospect like Beavers.   The WS would potentially be filling 2B/SS, COF, IB/RF power bat (Norby) and SP.  Norby is one of those "extra" prospects that just doesn't have a spot in Baltimore, but would be invaluble to a team like the WS.  I'm not saying Elias doesn't value him, but he's like a luxury. 

[ChicagoTerp]

17 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

Nightengale this morning said Sox asking for either Cowser or Kjerstad as the headliner. Mentioned Spencer Jones or Chase Hampton from the Yankees also. Very reasonable asks of both teams. 

I think Cowser as a headliner is not unreasonable, with a lesser secondary piece. Cease is just too big a question mark for Kjerstad in my opinion. 

I still think these teams should be able to get something done.

Edited January 14 by ChicagoTerp

[SoxFan3344]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the WS were smart they would go for a deal like this, trying to fill 4 or more long term positions in one trade.  If I were the WS, I would be trying to get Ortiz/Westburg, Norby, Povich/McDermott, and an OF prospect like Beavers.   The WS would potentially be filling 2B/SS, COF, IB/RF power bat (Norby) and SP.  Norby is one of those "extra" prospects that just doesn't have a spot in Baltimore, but would be invaluble to a team like the WS.  I'm not saying Elias doesn't value him, but he's like a luxury. 

If I’m Chris Getz I’m holding for what I want, Heston Kjerstad. If he’s not on the table I’m moving on and holding Cease til the deadline, when more teams will know if they’re competing or not. I understand the risk of injury but I’m in no hurry to get rid of my best starting pitcher when I have him under control for the next two full seasons. You can call it stubbornness if you want but Mike Elias called me first. 

[ChicagoTerp]

1 minute ago, SoxFan3344 said:

If I’m Chris Getz I’m holding for what I want, Heston Kjerstad. If he’s not on the table I’m moving on and holding Cease til the deadline, when more teams will know if they’re competing or not. I understand the risk of injury but I’m in no hurry to get rid of my best starting pitcher when I have him under control for the next two full seasons. You can call it stubbornness if you want but Mike Elias called me first. 

Risk of injury or, you know, pitching to his 2023 stats.

I am not Elias, but I just don't think he's trading Kjerstad. He went out on a bit of a limb to draft him #2 overall, then saw him go through the myocarditis scare, and then he was vindicated by his performance... I just have a hunch he's an Oriole for a while. 

[joelala]

2 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

If I’m Chris Getz I’m holding for what I want, Heston Kjerstad. If he’s not on the table I’m moving on and holding Cease til the deadline, when more teams will know if they’re competing or not. I understand the risk of injury but I’m in no hurry to get rid of my best starting pitcher when I have him under control for the next two full seasons. You can call it stubbornness if you want but Mike Elias called me first. 

I think it’s a bit myopic to fixate that much on one prospect. I like Kjerstad a bit more than Cowser too, but they’re really neck and neck for me. Why the huge preference for Kjerstad? Cowser’s glove carries more value. 

[wildcard]

12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Seems like a fair point to me.  Without top 5 picks and the pool money that goes along with it, it will be tougher.  Period.  At the same time, as that happens the Latin American program seems to be producing (4 players from the 2022 class in the FCL top 20, along with Basallo (2021).   I also think last years amateur draft had more input from the developmental side of the organization and it might be one of, if not, the deepest drafts we’ve had.  Hitting on a Henderson or Holliday on the amateur side will be tougher but I still like our chances of finding Cowser, Kjerstad, and Westburg types.  In fact, I’d say that Beavers and Horvath might compare favorably over the next 12 months.

Elias turned Mancini and Lopez into Johnson, McDermott and Povich.   I expect to see more of that in the future.  Trading veterans and blocked minors leaguers for minor leaguers with upside.

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

If I’m Chris Getz I’m holding for what I want, Heston Kjerstad. If he’s not on the table I’m moving on and holding Cease til the deadline, when more teams will know if they’re competing or not. I understand the risk of injury but I’m in no hurry to get rid of my best starting pitcher when I have him under control for the next two full seasons. You can call it stubbornness if you want but Mike Elias called me first. 

But why would Getz want another good hitting possibly positionless player, in Kjertad over an actual OF in Cowser, when he already has Vaughn and Jimenez.? That's the part that I don't understand. Cowser's younger too, which I think would matter to a team that's realistically not going to be competitive for the next few seasons. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias turned Mancini and Lopez into Johnson, McDermott and Povich.   I expect to see more of that in the future.  Trading veterans and blocked minors leaguers for minor leaguers with upside.

To be fair Elias made those trades when the team wasn't competitive. Now he has to find a way to continue to make those types of trades while keeping the team in contention from year to year. I think it's fair to say that from this point on it's going to require a bit more skill and precision on his end to maintain that balance. 

[Guest]

10 hours ago, emmett16 said:

And their superior run differential last year (with a higher payroll) was deflated by the 101 win Orioles who found a unique competitive  advantage.  Ironic, don’t you think? 

was the unique competitive advantage “trying to win for once”?

Also, thats not what irony is.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The only way for the O's or a team on a similarly limited farm system to replenish the farm is to trade their top players with a year or two before free agency.  The O's can't let their best players hit free agency and only get a draft pick or get a last minute Machado type of return.

The whole point of what I’m saying is that we should be extending some of these players and not just letting them walk. Instead of trying to juggle prospects in to fill holes you created by trading for them. 

[Safelykept]

3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Long time White Sox fan here. Cease is going to get traded I know. I despise rebuilds though. Are there any major leaguers the Orioles would be willing to trade? I'm not familiar with their roster at all. I just looked at their stats and the IFer Henderson looks pretty good. 28 bombs last year. The Sox definitely need that. The catcher put up 20 bombs and 80 RBIs too. Maybe one of them could be swapped for Cease. 

Henderson Or Adley straight up for Cease. You got a better chance of the Sun rising in the west tomorrow.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Long time White Sox fan here. Cease is going to get traded I know. I despise rebuilds though. Are there any major leaguers the Orioles would be willing to trade? I'm not familiar with their roster at all. I just looked at their stats and the IFer Henderson looks pretty good. 28 bombs last year. The Sox definitely need that. The catcher put up 20 bombs and 80 RBIs too. Maybe one of them could be swapped for Cease. 

Bruh

[dystopia]

[RZNJ]

38 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias turned Mancini and Lopez into Johnson, McDermott and Povich.   I expect to see more of that in the future.  Trading veterans and blocked minors leaguers for minor leaguers with upside.

I would like to see more of that.   Those were deadline deals though.   We are less likely to be trading veterans at the deadline, hopefully.    The Dodgers just traded a top prospect, who was blocked, for an A ball pitcher.   That kind of thing works for me too.

[Sports Guy]

Westburg is absolutely best case scenario.