Cease vs everyone else

[Chicago White Sox]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Let the White Sox go to the Dodgers.  Their #1 prospect just turned 26 and his best position is 1B.  Their #2 prospect hit .228 in A+ as a 22 yo and may or may not stick at catcher.  Their #3 gave up 46 hits in 31 IP with a 9 ERA and just turned 25.

We can give them a 25 yo plus, plus fielder (Ortiz) at SS or 2B who tore up AAA this year.  No need to include Cowser or Kjerstad.  Ortiz should be the main piece and go from there.

There are many other teams that will have interest in Cease and I fully expect a much better headliner than Ortiz.  But if that’s the best we can do right now, then we’ll be holding until the deadline and let Cease recoup his value.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Norby, Stowers, Povich, Kremer and Sosa/Urias  for Cease and Kopech. 
 

You doing that?  Are they? 

There’s zero chance we’d do that deal unfortunately.  I personally wouldn’t do it for Cease alone, let alone include Kopech in the trade.

[Chicago White Sox]

10 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

I don't like the idea of including Kremer in a deal for Cease.  I would rather give up more in prospect depth.  If they really want a starter back then include Irvin.

I really don’t see the purpose of Kramer coming back to us in a possible Cease trade.  First, he seems like important depth for you guys.  Second, I’m not sure how he really moves the needle for us.  We need to be aiming than back of the rotation starter given where we’re at.

[Pickles]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There are many other teams that will have interest in Cease and I fully expect a much better headliner than Ortiz.  But if that’s the best we can do right now, then we’ll be holding until the deadline and let Cease recoup his value.

Where do you rank Ortiz on the global prospect scale?

I think in the group mind here, he's a solid 50-75. Kjerstad and Cowers more like 30-50.

Who is the global top 25 prospect the White Sox are seeking for two years of Dylan Cease?

[Chicago White Sox]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not debating your general point about this trade proposal, but I’m not sure Colas is actually as good as Stowers, regardless of how he was rated.   

I’d take Colas over Stowers.  He’s a bit of a head case, but is super athletic and still somewhat raw. I’m just not a fan of guys who have massive K rates like Stowers.  Bust potential seems way too high even if the power is exciting.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There are many other teams that will have interest in Cease and I fully expect a much better headliner than Ortiz.  But if that’s the best we can do right now, then we’ll be holding until the deadline and let Cease recoup his value.

That’s cool.  Of course, maybe Elias surprises me and includes Cowser/Kjerstad or maybe Getz disappoints you and accepts less.   I suspect that Cease does get traded before the season so we can revisit when we know the team and the package.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Word is they want players who are also good defensively unlike most of their current team.  Norby and Stowers don’t fit that.  Not saying every acquisition has to be GG but I’d expect one of the main pieces.  Hence Joey Ortiz.

You’re on the money here.  Getz wants to improve the athleticism and defense of the team.  And this is why I could see Ortiz being the second piece in a Cease deal.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Where do you rank Ortiz on the global prospect scale?

I think in the group mind here, he's a solid 50-75. Kjerstad and Cowers more like 30-50.

Who is the global top 25 prospect the White Sox are seeking for two years of Dylan Cease?

I view Kjerstad & Cowser as 55 FV type prospects somewhere in that 30 to 50 range.  I view Ortiz as a 50 FV guy but more so in the 70 to 90 range.  The fact that he turns 26 next year hurts his value some.  Plus his offensive ceiling is limited due to his lack of power.  Still potentially a very valuable player, but you guys really should trade him this off-season or find a spot for him in your lineup.  He loses value every day that he’s not on a major league roster.

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I really don’t see the purpose of Kramer coming back to us in a possible Cease trade.  First, he seems like important depth for you guys.  Second, I’m not sure how he really moves the needle for us.  We need to be aiming than back of the rotation starter given where we’re at.

Kremer is Sports Guy being too cute by half.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That’s cool.  Of course, maybe Elias surprises me and includes Cowser/Kjerstad or maybe Getz disappoints you and accepts less.   I suspect that Cease does get traded before the season so we can revisit when we know the team and the package.

Look, anything is possible and Getz doesn’t exactly have the track record as our farm director to inspire confidence.  I just know in today’s modern baseball environment that guys who are a year removed from a runner up Cy Young season and still possess elite stuff (he ranked 5th amongst qualified starters last year in Stuff+) will be in demand.  And that is even more true in this market.  Whether Getz can parlay that likely interest into the best possible prospect package remains to be seen.

[Flash- bd]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I really don’t see the purpose of Kramer coming back to us in a possible Cease trade.  First, he seems like important depth for you guys.  Second, I’m not sure how he really moves the needle for us.  We need to be aiming than back of the rotation starter given where we’re at.

Kremer seems to be oddly underrated on this board and in baseball. If you compare his numbers with the guys who are being talked up this offseason-- EdRod, Gray, etc.--you can really make arguments for both. If Kremer were an FA the discussion around him might be quite different, honestly. But for whatever reason he seems to be a guy people like to underrate...perhaps it's because he doesn't really have that it factor when you watch him pitch and his stuff seems to scream more back of the rotation starter. But if we're looking at the cold hard facts, we're talking about a guy who has established himself as a very good 4 starter on a good team, and you can argue based on his performance in 2022 and his non-April performance last season and that he's still young-ish, with upside of a good 3.  

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I view Kjerstad & Cowser as 55 FV type prospects somewhere in that 30 to 50 range.  I view Ortiz as a 50 FV guy but more so in the 70 to 90 range.  The fact that he turns 26 next year hurts his value some.  Plus his offensive ceiling is limited due to his lack of power.  Still potentially a very valuable player, but you guys really should trade him this off-season or find a spot for him in your lineup.  He loses value every day that he’s not on a major league roster.

So you think he’s going to return 2 top 100 prospects for 2 years of control. Outside of his one awesome season he’s been good but not great. The Sox could certainly ask for the moon and perhaps there is a GM dumb enough to pay it. I suspect the deal lands somewhere in the middle. 
 

Ive theorized a more quantity type deal headed by Cowser/Westburg.  If that happens perhaps you also get a guy roars around 100 or just outside. 
 

Maybe something like Cowser, Ortiz/Norby, Beavers, & Baumann.

 

I agree with the prior post about Kremer. He had a low 3 ERA last year and if not for a dreadful start would’ve been in that ball park again. He gave up 22 runs in 39 innings in April.  
 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So you think he’s going to return 2 top 100 prospects for 2 years of control.

The Castillo and Berrios trades suggest that’s the price.  I’d say Cease’s track record is not quite as good as Castillo’s but better than Berrios’.   Now, those were deadline deals and sometimes trade value goes up at the deadline.  On the other hand, Cease has 2 full years of service time and both Castillo and Berrios only had 1.3 years remaining.  

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Castillo and Berrios trades suggest that’s the price.  I’d say Cease’s track record is not quite as good as Castillo’s but better than Berrios’.   Now, those were deadline deals and sometimes trade value goes up at the deadline.  On the other hand, Cease has 2 full years of service time and both Castillo and Berrios only had 1.3 years remaining.  

So looking at the Castillo trade they received the 11th best prospect but he’s not without warts. He has a 55% pull rate which probably isn’t sustainable in the majors. He also around 60 errors in 2 seasons. So he does not have SS value IMO. He’s just as likely to end at 1B as 3B depending on if they can develop his defense. 
 

Arroyo is a glove 1st type and has a shot to be a starting SS. Will he hit? He had around a .900 ops this year also in A ball. But, lots of guys that do that wind up .600 to .700 OPS guys. 
 

They also got a pitcher Stoidt (24)with a 5+ era that some project as an RP. And he gave up a ton of long balls. And Moore that already appears destined for the pen that appears back end due to his 30+ % K rate.

I just think our nearly ready guys that are a lot better pieces due to their higher floor. Both of the hitters in the deal above could be boom or bust guys. 
 

I assume if they got a solid MLB position player and a couple of decent to good MLB relief arms you’d probably be happy? 

 

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There’s zero chance we’d do that deal unfortunately.  I personally wouldn’t do it for Cease alone, let alone include Kopech in the trade.

So a few things here…first off, that trade idea was born more out of the idea of what Bowden was saying..IE 2 top 10 guys and another guy outside the top 10.

Povich was a top 100 guy on McDaniels list and Norby was a top 100 guy on multiple lists at different times in 2023. Both of those guys are easily top 10 guys in most organizations and maybe even top 5 in some.

Stowers is a ML ready OFer with big power and exit velo numbers. He has become the forgotten man here in Baltimore but he has everyday OFer, 30+ homer upside. I wouldn’t expect the OBP to go much beyond 325 because I would expect a lower average but he will take a walk.  If the Os move on from a guy like Cowser this offseason, I am More than fine to give the chance to Stowers and see what he can do over 400+ at bats this year.

I would like to get Kopech back in this deal for our pen. His value isn’t that much at this point but to expand the deal, I put Kremer in it because, admittingly, there isn’t that top 100(right now) guy in the deal and in these larger deals, you almost always see a MLer going back. Sometimes it’s just a reliever or maybe a UTI type guy or someone like Lopez, where you want him to start. Since you got him, I don’t think Mateo or Urias make a lot of sense as that guy, so I went with the more productive guy in Kremer to make up for the lack of a top 100 guy. Kremer fits right into your rotation, he’s cheap and has a lot of team control. He’s not as good as his numbers in 2023 suggest but he’s a solid 4th starter making no money who can eat innings. That’s valuable.

It’s also predicated on the idea that they took a quantity deal for Bummer. Obviously Bummer isn’t Cease but that doesn’t mean there isn’t an organizational thought about taking back a lot of players and seeing what you can do. The Os did that with Bundy and Jorge Lopez. In none of those deals did you get a stud prospect but you had guys with upside and, of course, Bradish hit, Povich has become a real prospect and Cano was good this year.

Now, going with the idea that they want better defense and better athletes…that’s fine. If those exact guys don’t work because you are missing that, I get it. So, you take out Norby and Stowers and you add in a guy like Ortiz. 
 

I guess my larger point in all of this is simply, what are the Sox looking for and are you actually going to get a top 35 guy for Cease? I am very skeptical of that.  Will you even get a top 50 guy?  Again, Im skeptical.

Ortiz is more of a top 75 type guy. I could see that. I could see a guy like Beavers(or Povich), who has top 100 upside this year. Is Ortiz, Beavers/Povich and a guy like Max Wagner enough for Cease?  I’m guessing most WS fans would want to say no to that but are you really going to do better than a top 75 guy, a borderline top 100 guy and another player with some upside?  Again, I’m skeptical.

As I have said, if we had to I would deal Cowser, a top 35 guy, for Cease but again, I’m skeptical that a player of that level will be needed to get dealt to get Cease.

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Sports Guy