Cease vs everyone else

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Hard to argue with much of this, with the caveat that of course we never know what trade negotiations took place or why they ultimately failed. But yeah - we absolutely did not help ourselves at the deadline, and Webb was kind of a miracle. Along with Perez who suddenly found it. 

I've said this a lot here, and have even heard one of the writers at MLBTR say it in a live chat... our farm system is a curse in trades because teams cannot help themselves from asking for our top 5 guys in every trade, and they just don't want to hear about the 6-10 guys. Because the 1-5 guys exist and are so much better than everyone else. 

I don't put a ton of faith into what the writers at MLBTR say.

I haven't checked in a while, do they have anyone on payroll that has any actual experience in that sort of thing?  I know they used to be just a fan driven enterprise back in the day.

 

I find it really hard to believe in this day and age a GM would turn down a superior offer from the O's because of who else they have in the system.

Edited January 18 by Can_of_corn

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't put a ton of faith into what the writers at MLBTR say.

I haven't checked in a while, do they have anyone on payroll that has any actual experience in that sort of thing?  I know they used to be just a fan driven enterprise back in the day.

Not really saying they know anything, but was just nice to hear my theory repeated by someone. I think it's absolutely true. The perception (IMO) from other teams is that we have so many guys, we should be willing to part with at least one of the top 5. But in an alternate reality where our top 5 prospects don't exist, they would absolutely accept a trade from another team with lesser prospects. But because they exist, teams say well just give us Cowser, you already have Kjerstad and Beavers and EBJ and all these other outfield prospects. 

But I'm glad Mike understands it doesn't work like that. You still have to make the proper trade based on what a guy is worth. We can't arbitrarily increase what we're giving another team just because we have more and better guys than another team. Funk that. 

Edited January 18 by interloper

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

Not really saying they know anything, but was just nice to hear my theory repeated by someone. I think it's absolutely true. The perception (IMO) from other teams is that we have so many guys, we should be willing to part with at least one of the top 5. But in an alternate reality where our top 5 prospects don't exist, they would absolutely accept a trade from another team with lesser prospects. But because they exist, teams say well just give us Cowser, you already have Kjerstad and Beavers and EBJ and all these other outfield prospects. 

But I'm glad Mike understands it doesn't work like that. You still have to make the proper trade based on what a guy is worth. We can arbitrarily inflate our package just because we have more and better guys than another team. Funk that. 

I think a GM would have to be beyond incompetent for that to be true.

Owner- Who's got the best offer on the table?

GM- The Orioles have the best offer but they are willing to trade players A-D!

Owner- But it's still the best offer right?

GM- Sure...but....

 

Yea, doesn't check out.

 

GM- Which is the best offer?

Statguy- The Oriole's offer is the best choice.

GM- But it doesn't include players A-D!

Statguy- But the guys it does include are still superior to our needs than the other offers.

GM- I don't care!  We are taking the worse offer!

 

Yea, doesn't check out.

 

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, doesn't check out.

I think it contributed to teams holding onto players at the deadline last year and the White Sox playing chicken with Cease this offseason. Elias said he offered up several packages featuring some pretty big names last year, and it didn't pan out. What those names were, who knows, but I tend to think of Westburg and Ortiz. I think some teams have some silly GMs who really devalue our 6-10 because of our 1-5. They're just like "ehhh but that top 5 tho...." and eventually they move on to another team's top 5 or they just keep their player. I wouldn't underestimate how dumb/delusional some front offices can be.

Edited January 18 by interloper

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I think it contributed to teams holding onto players at the deadline last year and the White Sox playing chicken with Cease this offseason. Elias said he offered up several packages featuring some pretty big names last year, and it didn't pan out. What those names were, who knows, but I tend to think of Westburg and Ortiz. I think some teams have some silly GMs who really devalue our 6-10 because of our 1-5. They're just like "ehhh but that top 5 tho...." and eventually they move on to another team's top 5 or they just keep their player. I wouldn't underestimate how dumb/delusional some front offices can be. They are full of billionaires and ex-MLB players after all. 

Gotta factor in appearances too. A GM could opt to trade for, say, a #2 prospect from a team with a bad farm system than a #5 prospect from the best farm system even if the latter is the better prospect simply because it looks better on the surface. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, dystopia said:

Gotta factor in appearances too. A GM could opt to trade for, say, a #2 prospect from a team with a bad farm system than a #5 prospect from the best farm system even if the latter is the better prospect simply because it looks better on the surface. 

To whom?

If the #2 guy is ranked 95th and the #5 guy is ranked 90th you don't think that higher top 100 ranking carries more weight?

[Going Underground]

The White Sox can always trade Cease at or near the end of spring training.  Maybe one of the contenders lose one of their top of rotation guys. They might get  a better offer then what they are being offered now. May work out for them or might not.

[Spy Fox]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think a GM would have to be beyond incompetent for that to be true.

Owner- Who's got the best offer on the table?

GM- The Orioles have the best offer but they are willing to trade players A-D!

Owner- But it's still the best offer right?

GM- Sure...but....

 

Yea, doesn't check out.

 

GM- Which is the best offer?

Statguy- The Oriole's offer is the best choice.

GM- But it doesn't include players A-D!

Statguy- But the guys it does include are still superior to our needs than the other offers.

GM- I don't care!  We are taking the worse offer!

 

Yea, doesn't check out.

 

I think you're assuming that the team these characters work for is dead set on trading the asset. If the Sox were fully commited to trading Cease before the season, then yes they would ultimately take the best offer regardless of which prospects weren't included.

But they're not. It's their choice to trade Cease or not, and they seem to be willing to not trade him. If the GM has any uncertainty about whether or not to make a deal, they could be swayed by a perception that the O's aren't being serious enough if they aren't including the top X guys. Or that there's the potential to get some of those top X guys out of the O's if they wait longer. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I think you're assuming that the team these characters work for is dead set on trading the asset. If the Sox were fully commited to trading Cease before the season, then yes they would ultimately take the best offer regardless of which prospects weren't included.

But they're not. It's their choice to trade Cease or not, and they seem to be willing to not trade him. If the GM has any uncertainty about whether or not to make a deal, they could be swayed by a perception that the O's aren't being serious enough if they aren't including the top X guys. Or that there's the potential to get some of those top X guys out of the O's if they wait longer. 

Right, I wasn't talking about not making a deal at all.

They also aren't making deals with teams that aren't "cursed" with really strong farm systems.

[interloper]

13 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Gotta factor in appearances too. A GM could opt to trade for, say, a #2 prospect from a team with a bad farm system than a #5 prospect from the best farm system even if the latter is the better prospect simply because it looks better on the surface. 

Exactly. It's really stupid, I admit, but I honestly think there are some teams who would operate like this. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If you don’t add another legit starter, there will be a lot of pressure on Bradish and GRod to have 60+ starts.

And to perform at the 2nd half levels the whole season.

[dystopia]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To whom?

If the #2 guy is ranked 95th and the #5 guy is ranked 90th you don't think that higher top 100 ranking carries more weight?

Media and more casual/less informed fans than us. Which are most fans. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Media and more casual/less informed fans than us. Which are most fans. 

Yea, I think "most fans" are going to be happy enough with the guy with the higher rank in the top 100 list.

Assuming they are paying attention at all.

Any qualified GM should be able to put a good spin on getting the actual best return.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

Then I would disagree with you.  If Cease continues his 2023 track, and the Orioles' prospects continue their tracks, it seems to me that Cease would, in fact, command less in trade at the end of July, not more.

He will probably do better than in 2023.   The question is, how much better?   

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Two big failures by Elias at the deadline. He could’ve gotten a Chapman, Robertson, Hicks, etc…. Realistically we needed two RH SU guys. That could’ve really lightened the load on Bautista. Instead Elias went with a salary dump in Fuji. He even got bailed out a bit that Webb was there and pitched well for us.

Then he didn’t want to pay the prospect price for Montgomery over Flaherty. St Louis would’ve covered the salary difference for the right prospects. 

Elias has a tough job going forward. We won’t have top draft picks, and we don’t spend in FA. 

I feel like the O's are missing a golden opportunity to give themselves the best chance at a World championship since at least the 1990's.  It hard to know how to apportion the blame between JA and Elias, but I feel it's happening.  This is like a 2014 offseason remake.