Cease vs everyone else

[btdart20]

A.  I'm a little disappointed in y'all for not commenting on this thread in over 24 hours and letting it fall of the lead page.  

B.  I'm a shamed to be that guy who bumps it back.  #300orbust

C.  Ben Clemens is making the case that "someone" will trade for Cease.  If for no other reason than scarcity.

Someone’s Going to Trade for Dylan Cease | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[interloper]

20 hours ago, btdart20 said:

A.  I'm a little disappointed in y'all for not commenting on this thread in over 24 hours and letting it fall of the lead page.  

B.  I'm a shamed to be that guy who bumps it back.  #300orbust

C.  Ben Clemens is making the case that "someone" will trade for Cease.  If for no other reason than scarcity.

Someone’s Going to Trade for Dylan Cease | FanGraphs Baseball

 

Fangraphs does this thing where they use an incredible amount of words and charts to say something as simple as "Cease is worth a lot because there's a shortage of good starting pitchers". Do I really need the WAR comparison of a teams' 4th best starter vs their 9th best hitter or whatever? 

Anyway, way to keep the thread alive. Tyler Nevin got our eye off the ball for a minute there. 

Edited January 24 by interloper

[Frobby]

Here’s something I just posted over on Soxtalk:

Hi Sox fans -

I haven’t poked my head in here for a few weeks, and said I wouldn’t unless and until there was a solid rumor or an actual deal involving Cease.  But I decided to make a brief exception today to mention the ZiPS projection for Cease that came out today.  Briefly, the median projection is for 166 innings at a 3.90 ERA, 111 ERA+.   There’s also an 80th percentile projection at a 3.32 ERA, and a 20th percentile projection at 4.81 ERA.

The gap between the 80th and 20th percentile projections is really wide.   For example, here are the 80/20 projections for the Orioles’ four incumbent starters:

Bradish 3.16/4.29

Rodriguez 3.40/4.41

Kremer 3.49/4,69

Means 3.78/4.83

The 80/20 “risk band” on those four ranges from 1.01 - 1.20 runs per game, whereas Cease’s is 1.49.   So, for whatever reason, ZiPS sees Cease as a guy whose performance could fluctuate a lot more than some other pitchers, at least with respect to ERA.  

Overall, that portrait of Cease is pretty much consistent with how I see him.   But if anything, the 80th percentile scenario is probably not as strong as I would have guessed.  

I will leave this for you guys to consider and discuss.   
 

[RZNJ]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s something I just posted over on Soxtalk:

Hi Sox fans -

I haven’t poked my head in here for a few weeks, and said I wouldn’t unless and until there was a solid rumor or an actual deal involving Cease.  But I decided to make a brief exception today to mention the ZiPS projection for Cease that came out today.  Briefly, the median projection is for 166 innings at a 3.90 ERA, 111 ERA+.   There’s also an 80th percentile projection at a 3.32 ERA, and a 20th percentile projection at 4.81 ERA.

The gap between the 80th and 20th percentile projections is really wide.   For example, here are the 80/20 projections for the Orioles’ four incumbent starters:

Bradish 3.16/4.29

Rodriguez 3.40/4.41

Kremer 3.49/4,69

Means 3.78/4.83

The 80/20 “risk band” on those four ranges from 1.01 - 1.20 runs per game, whereas Cease’s is 1.49.   So, for whatever reason, ZiPS sees Cease as a guy whose performance could fluctuate a lot more than some other pitchers, at least with respect to ERA.  

Overall, that portrait of Cease is pretty much consistent with how I see him.   But if anything, the 80th percentile scenario is probably not as strong as I would have guessed.  

I will leave this for you guys to consider and discuss.   
 

I assume they’re cussing you out right now but I’ll go check.

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Fangraphs does this thing where they use an incredible amount of words and charts to say something as simple as "Cease is worth a lot because there's a shortage of good starting pitchers". Do I really need the WAR comparison of teams' 4th best starter vs their 9th best hitter or whatever? 

Anyway, way to keep the thread alive. Tyler Nevin got our eye off the ball for a minute there. 

I’ve seen other posters express this idea, but I feel Fangraphs’ writing quality has gone downhill. I used to think they had pretty well-written articles that found interesting statistical insights and conveyed them in clear narratives. Recently though I often feel like they’re writing to hit word counts, and the statistical arguments are often muddy or boring. Like they are choosing what to write about and then searching for relevant data, as opposed to letting the data lead them to interesting stories. I still find some value in the site but I am rarely impressed by their writing these days. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Here’s something I just posted over on Soxtalk:

Hi Sox fans -

I haven’t poked my head in here for a few weeks, and said I wouldn’t unless and until there was a solid rumor or an actual deal involving Cease.  But I decided to make a brief exception today to mention the ZiPS projection for Cease that came out today.  Briefly, the median projection is for 166 innings at a 3.90 ERA, 111 ERA+.   There’s also an 80th percentile projection at a 3.32 ERA, and a 20th percentile projection at 4.81 ERA.

The gap between the 80th and 20th percentile projections is really wide.   For example, here are the 80/20 projections for the Orioles’ four incumbent starters:

Bradish 3.16/4.29

Rodriguez 3.40/4.41

Kremer 3.49/4,69

Means 3.78/4.83

The 80/20 “risk band” on those four ranges from 1.01 - 1.20 runs per game, whereas Cease’s is 1.49.   So, for whatever reason, ZiPS sees Cease as a guy whose performance could fluctuate a lot more than some other pitchers, at least with respect to ERA.  

Overall, that portrait of Cease is pretty much consistent with how I see him.   But if anything, the 80th percentile scenario is probably not as strong as I would have guessed.  

I will leave this for you guys to consider and discuss.   
 

That’s not a board that has interest in actual analysis. They just want to rant and rave. I’m sure this won’t go over well.

[Otter]

26 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I’ve seen other posters express this idea, but I feel Fangraphs’ writing quality has gone downhill. I used to think they had pretty well-written articles that found interesting statistical insights and conveyed them in clear narratives. Recently though I often feel like they’re writing to hit word counts, and the statistical arguments are often muddy or boring. Like they are choosing what to write about and then searching for relevant data, as opposed to letting the data lead them to interesting stories. I still find some value in the site but I am rarely impressed by their writing these days. 

Whenever I read any type of article these days that seems a little muddy or unclear I wonder if it's AI generated instead of an actual writer.  

[Malike]

52 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I assume they’re cussing you out right now but I’ll go check.

They are doing what they do. They use these projections for O's pitchers, but when used against Cease they want to look at FIP and fWAR and other metrics instead. Clown show.

Edited January 23 by Malike

[btdart20]

57 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I’ve seen other posters express this idea, but I feel Fangraphs’ writing quality has gone downhill. I used to think they had pretty well-written articles that found interesting statistical insights and conveyed them in clear narratives. Recently though I often feel like they’re writing to hit word counts, and the statistical arguments are often muddy or boring. Like they are choosing what to write about and then searching for relevant data, as opposed to letting the data lead them to interesting stories. I still find some value in the site but I am rarely impressed by their writing these days. 

The degree of difficulty to push the edge analytically while engaging reading with quality prose is tough.  They have lost good analysts and have leaned into engaging the average fan more in recent years.

[Since1984]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

A.  I'm a little disappointed in y'all for not commenting on this thread in over 24 hours and letting it fall of the lead page.  

B.  I'm a shamed to be that guy who bumps it back.  #300orbust

C.  Ben Clemens is making the case that "someone" will trade for Cease.  If for no other reason than scarcity.

Someone’s Going to Trade for Dylan Cease | FanGraphs Baseball

 

Interesting, doing a slightly less player FV mentioned  in the article for Cease; and comparing the player FV in Tony’s current rankings; the O’s could trade Cowser, Ortiz, Beavers and Povich to Match a 3 war and relatively cheap 2 year SP based on FG’s projections.

This type of scenario has likely been mention somewhere between pages 1-285, but I might do this if it projects well for 2024. And if this trade is made, I am hoping ME will continue to exceed expectations!

[Roll Tide]

Has Cease been dealt yet

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Has Cease been dealt yet

No, but you have to copy and paste the Fangraphs write up on the WS #1 prospect, Colton Montgomery, on their board.  Not a SS.  Problems with the swing.   They need Nicky Ortiz!

[Mooreisbetter27]

Not gonna happen.  A GM (anon) recently said they're asking for the "sun and moons" for him.  I think it's even less likely that we trade for him at the deadline.  

We know we're not giving up our top 3 regardless.

At the trade deadline there is a decent chance that 4 of our top 5 are MLB contributors.  Ortiz will be 26 by then.  Who would they want, if they're asking for absurd prices now?  

They'll have to lower their price vastly for us to ever be considered.  

I think we can tie a bow on this one.  Not happening.  

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Not gonna happen.  A GM (anon) recently said they're asking for the "sun and moons" for him.  I think it's even less likely that we trade for him at the deadline.  

We know we're not giving up our top 3 regardless.

At the trade deadline there is a decent chance that 4 of our top 5 are MLB contributors.  Ortiz will be 26 by then.  Who would they want, if they're asking for absurd prices now?  

They'll have to lower their price vastly for us to ever be considered.  

I think we can tie a bow on this one.  Not happening.  

Agreed and I've felt this way for a while. Mike Elias saying in his interview that "There just hasn't been guys available on the market. But we will try and leave no stone unturned" makes me think the White Sox were never serious about trading Cease anyway. They just wanted to see if someone was stupid enough to offer a foolish lopsided traded and pay a king's ransom for him. As would anyone who has little intention of parting with an asset.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Agreed and I've felt this way for a while. Mike Elias saying in his interview that "There just hasn't been guys available on the market. But we will try and leave no stone unturned" makes me think the White Sox were never serious about trading Cease anyway. They just wanted to see if someone was stupid enough to offer a foolish lopsided traded and pay a king's ransom for him. As would anyone who has little intention of parting with an asset.

Me being me I view it from the opposite view and Elias just doesn't want to give up what would be needed.