Cease vs everyone else

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It is mind boggling.  But that’s what winning 100 games does to people.  They just assume you can bring back the same team and everything will be great.

I don’t think that’s it.   You can have a redundant asset but still not want to trade it if you don’t feel you’re getting equivalent value.   Let’s say you have two identical Mercedes convertibles but you really need a family car as a second car.  Someone offers you a 2-year old Honda minivan in exchange for one of the convertibles.  You have more use for the minivan, but you aren’t going to be in any hurry to make that trade.   You’re probably going to hold out for a better deal.  

Edited December 3, 2023 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that’s it.   You can have a redundant asset but still not want to trade it if you don’t feel you’re getting equivalent value.   Let’s say you have two identical Mercedes convertibles but you really need a family car as a second car.  Someone offers you a 2-year old Honda minivan in exchange.  You have more use for the minivan, but you aren’t going to be in any hurry to make that trade.   You’re probably going to hold out for a better deal.  

Well when these guys get hurt or exposed and don’t play and then you get nothing for them, you will wish you had gotten something.

Every scenario from Os fans is that their prospects are going to hit and be great. Everyone is worried about “losing value” yet those same people can’t wait to jump on anyone that even remotely says something negative about Elias because he’s so great at building things.

So, you either feel that he can replace role player type guys or you don’t think he’s as good at his job as you defend.

It can’t be both. Having the option of keeping a top level, AS level top 5 pick vs role players is a complete no brainer.

 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well when these guys get hurt or exposed and don’t play and then you get nothing for them, you will wish you had gotten something.

Every scenario from Os fans is that their prospects are going to hit and be great. Everyone is worried about “losing value” yet those same people can’t wait to jump on anyone that even remotely says something negative about Elias because he’s so great at building things.

So, you either feel that he can replace role player type guys or you don’t think he’s as good at his job as you defend.

It can’t be both. Having the option of keeping a top level, AS level top 5 pick vs role players is a complete no brainer.

 

I don’t disagree with much of this.  I was just explaining why someone would be reluctant to give up a “redundant” asset if the value they’re getting isn’t equivalent.

That said, one of the reasons I’d rather part with Ortiz than Cowser is that we have more depth at 2B/SS than we do in the OF over the long term.   

And, I’ve made it clear I’d part with both for Cease if necessary.  
 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t disagree with much of this.  I was just explaining why someone would be reluctant to give up a “redundant” asset if the value they’re getting isn’t equivalent.

That said, one of the reasons I’d rather part with Ortiz than Cowser is that we have more depth at 2B/SS than we do in the OF over the long term.   

And, I’ve made it clear I’d part with both for Cease if necessary.  
 

Well that was more talking about the 2 hypotheticals I laid out.

And I’m not saying to give up a player just because they are redundant but the point is if you can use those redundant pieces to get a high ceiling talent, you do that.

What else do you think you are getting for Norby and Stowers?

They are going to end up getting trade for a reliever like Fuji at the deadline.

[24fps]

59 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t understand how 2 sites can be that far off on the same stat.i guess it’s open for interpretation. Which leads me back to the actual performance over fantasy comment.

rWAR tells you how pitchers actually performed and fWAR tells you how pitchers should have performed independent from fielding while normalizing luck.  This is why fWAR is more useful when looking at a pitcher like Cease who pitched in front of a bad defensive team, but who would have a much better team if he were with the O's.

[dystopia]

17 minutes ago, 24fps said:

rWAR tells you how pitchers actually performed and fWAR tells you how pitchers should have performed independent from fielding while normalizing luck.  This is why fWAR is more useful when looking at a pitcher like Cease who pitched in front of a bad defensive team, but who would have a much better team if he were with the O's.

rWAR adjusts for defense. 

[Billy F-Face3]

Why isn't Corbin Burnes' thread as long as this one? Corbin Burnes is a better pitcher and he's controlled by another franchise too. 

It just seems to me that all this energy would be better spent on a pitcher who has a track record of being more consistent and more successful over his career.

Because they are both going to be expensive in a trade to pry them away from their teams. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Why isn't Corbin Burnes' thread as long as this one? Corbin Burnes is a better pitcher and he's controlled by another franchise too. 

It just seems to me that all this energy would be better spent on a pitcher who has a track record of being more consistent and more successful over his career.

Because they are both going to be expensive in a trade to pry them away from their teams. 

The WS definitely want to trade Cease.  The Brewers don’t seem like they are committed to trading Burnes.

[RZNJ]

They seem to treat this guy with respect and some kind of insider on the WS message board.

Quote

macsandz

Members

 2.8k

Posted Wednesday at 08:52 PM

I was told the ask from BAL is still Cowser, Norby +...but as of this morning Elias is balking just like at last year's deadline. 

[Roll Tide]

16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well when these guys get hurt or exposed and don’t play and then you get nothing for them, you will wish you had gotten something.

Every scenario from Os fans is that their prospects are going to hit and be great. Everyone is worried about “losing value” yet those same people can’t wait to jump on anyone that even remotely says something negative about Elias because he’s so great at building things.

So, you either feel that he can replace role player type guys or you don’t think he’s as good at his job as you defend.

It can’t be both. Having the option of keeping a top level, AS level top 5 pick vs role players is a complete no brainer.

 

I think we all agree they need to move guys like Hicks (already gone),Mateo, Urias, and McKenna off the roster to make room for younger guys. 
 

We also have guys that need to be moved because they are excess. The problem is they aren’t throw aways and you need to receive value in return. As a fan I care about the results of a player we are obtaining. What I don’t care about is the potential. Certain guys are creaming over Cease and his potential. Other guys are seeing what he’s really done. Sure he could come in and be an ace but it’s just as likely that he is a low 4 to mid 4 ERA starter. I think it’s fair to discuss potential packages and not want to give up certain guys. I think we have a few guys like Norby, Stowers, Westburg, Ortiz, and Cowser that either need to be on the big league roster here or somewhere else. I think Elias is great at building an organization but not so great at its current stage. But, it’s impossible to know how much his hands are tied. 

[Roll Tide]

15 hours ago, RZNJ said:

The WS definitely want to trade Cease.  The Brewers don’t seem like they are committed to trading Burnes.

I don’t know about committed. They are listening to offers and there is some talk that they may not want to trade him. That could be just as easily be posturing.

[dystopia]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

They seem to treat this guy with respect and some kind of insider on the WS message board.

Quote

macsandz

Members

 2.8k

Posted Wednesday at 08:52 PM

I was told the ask from BAL is still Cowser, Norby +...but as of this morning Elias is balking just like at last year's deadline. 

I saw this three-way trade with ATL suggested in their mega-thread over there. 

To BAL: Waldrep

To CWS: Smith-Shawver, Hjerstad

To ATL: Cease

Thought it would be worth posting just for discussion purposes. 

[waroriole]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

They seem to treat this guy with respect and some kind of insider on the WS message board.

Quote

macsandz

Members

 2.8k

Posted Wednesday at 08:52 PM

I was told the ask from BAL is still Cowser, Norby +...but as of this morning Elias is balking just like at last year's deadline. 

Keep balking Mike. 

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Keep balking Mike. 

No,  not if the offer is Cowser and Norby.  If those 2 are the centerpieces then we should make the deal.   One of Cowser/Ortiz/Westburg is fine,  but not two.   And Norby in ok with sending along with one of those 3.  So unless there is more to it he shouldn't be balking at that asking price IMO.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

No,  not if the offer is Cowser and Norby.  If those 2 are the centerpieces then we should make the deal.   One of Cowser/Ortiz/Westburg is fine,  but not two.   And Norby in ok with sending along with one of those 3.  So unless there is more to it he shouldn't be balking at that asking price IMO.

If Elias is balking at that I would guess one of two things.
 

1. Normal posturing trying to get a better deal

2. He might be really high on Cowser and personally have him higher on his list than we think.

Who ultimately gets traded or stays likely tells us who Elias is highest on.  Maybe he’d rather include Kjerstad than Cowser.  Don’t know.