Cease vs everyone else

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

What makes you say Cowser lacks power?   That’s not correct.  Just look up his AA and AAA numbers.  It’s easy.

Yeah I'm aware of his minor league power numbers. I'm not sure I see them translating to the big leagues as readily as Kjerstad, who has the real deal 30-40 bomb power. 

I see Cowser as having a kind of Hays-like bat in the big leagues, but with a lot more walks. That's just my opinion though. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by interloper

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah I'm aware of his minor league power numbers. I'm not sure I see them translating to the big leagues as readily as Kjerstad, who has the real deal 30-40 bomb power. 

I see Cowser as having a kind of Hays-like bat in the big leagues, but with a lot more walks. That's just my opinion though. 

No problem but here are Cowsers combined AA and AAA numbers in 163 games.  144 runs scored, 35 doubles, 1 triple, 32 home runs, 106 RBI.   

[interloper]

Just now, RZNJ said:

No problem but here are Cowsers combined AA and AAA numbers in 163 games.  144 runs scored, 35 doubles, 1 triple, 32 home runs, 106 RBI.   

He's just one of those guys that's gonna have to prove it to me. I see Kjerstad and I'm like, yes, that's a dude, I see it. I don't have that with Cowser for whatever reason. But I do understand Elias being hesitant to trade him. 

That said, good luck getting these teams off your top tier of position player prospects (Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Basallo, Cowser, Bradfield) and into the next tier (Ortiz, Westburg, Norby, Beavers, Fabian, etc).

This is what I've been saying for a long time. Teams are just fixated on that top 5.  I don't think teams are really buying Ortiz and Westburg as difference makers - they want guys with bigger and louder upside. I think those teams are very stupid, but it is what it is. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

He's just one of those guys that's gonna have to prove it to me. I see Kjerstad and I'm like, yes, that's a dude, I see it. I don't have that with Cowser for whatever reason. But I do understand Elias being hesitant to trade him. 

That said, good luck getting these teams off your top tier of position player prospects (Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Basallo, Cowser, Bradfield) and into the next tier (Ortiz, Westburg, Norby, Beavers, Fabian, etc).

This is what I've been saying for a long time. Teams are just fixated on that top 5.  I don't think teams are really buying Ortiz and Westburg as difference makers - they want guys with bigger and louder upside. I think those teams are very stupid, but it is what it is. 

Interesting that you think Westburg is in that category. I think he's likely in the 2024 contributor category and that Elias will be reluctant to include him in these deals.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Point is, you don’t have a surplus of outfielders unless you have at least 4 solid guys for 3 spots.  Right now we have two guys coming up who can replace the three we are losing in the next two years.   That’s not really a surplus.  Doesn’t mean you don’t trade one anyway, but it’s not as easy as trading an infielder where we clearly have a surplus.  

Santander, Hays, Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad,… is McKenna solid? Is Hicks returning? Stowers? Are the Orioles counting on O’Hearn in the OF. It sounds like they are. Also Elias through the media just said Heston in RF right?

[interloper]

14 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Interesting that you think Westburg is in that category. I think he's likely in the 2024 contributor category and that Elias will be reluctant to include him in these deals.

I don't disagree that he's going to be a solid ML player, but he doesn't have the wow factor of those other guys, IMO, that other teams are looking for in trades. 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't disagree that he's going to be a solid ML player, but he doesn't have the wow factor of those other guys, IMO, that other teams are looking for in trades. 

Besides Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo, I think Westburg has as much wow factor as Kjerstad and Cowser.   The dude hit 18 homers in half a season at Norfolk, held his own in the majors and plays plus defense at 2B and 3B and he’s one of the fastest players on the team.

Westburg in 158 AAA games.

121 runs, 40 doubles, 5 triples, 36 home runs, 128 RBI

I say, wow!

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by RZNJ

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Besides Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo, I think Westburg has as much wow factor as Kjerstad and Cowser.   The dude hit 18 homers in half a season at Norfolk, held his own in the majors and plays plus defense at 2B and 3B and he’s one of the fastest players on the team.

I don't necessarily disagree about Westburg being equitable to Cowser, but I will hard disagree about Westburg being equitable to Kjerstad. I don't see Westburg's power translating as well as we'd like. Plenty of guys hit AAA home runs, but they aren't facing 97 with run and devastating sliders on a regular basis. To me, he's in the Cowser category that sort of exists between the top guys and the next tier. But that's not how I think other teams see it. Perhaps I'm just feeling a little sour about the current trade climate. But if Elias is drawing the line at Cowser, we may have a problem acquiring a frontline starter. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by interloper

[emmett16]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Besides Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo, I think Westburg has as much wow factor as Kjerstad and Cowser.   The dude hit 18 homers in half a season at Norfolk, held his own in the majors and plays plus defense at 2B and 3B and he’s one of the fastest players on the team.

And plays in the dirt (2B, 3b, & SS in a pinch).  He’s fastest guy on team not named Mateo.  By all accounts is one of the most disciplined and hardest workers in the org (comments coming from his colleagues).  The underrating of Westburg on this board is crazy.  The dude put up 1.2 WAR in 68 games in his rookie season.  Thats a 3 WAR player who is just getting his feet wet.  Kjerstad is a nice player but pretty one dimensional. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by emmett16

[interloper]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

And plays in the dirt (2B, 3b, & SS in a pinch).  He’s fastest guy on team not named Mateo.  By all accounts is one of the most disciplined and hardest workers in the org (comments coming from his colleagues).  The underrating of Westburg on this board is crazy.  The dude put up 1.2 WAR in 68 games in his rookie season.  Thats a 3 WAR player who is just getting his feet wet.  

To be clear, I'm not really saying I don't like him or rate him very highly. I do. My main point is I think other teams are underrating him. They want the top guys. They're not going to get them. And we may not get a pitcher. That's how things look as of 12/7/23. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by interloper

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

To be clear, I'm not really saying I don't like him or rate him very highly. I do. My main point is I think other teams are underrating him. They want the top guys. They're not going to get them. And we may not get a pitcher. That's how things look as of 12/7/23. 

Of course they want the top guys.  They also have the data to see the Westburg is 100% a difference maker.  He put up 1/2 the WAR Cease did in 1/3 of a season…..his first season.  Seems to me Cease for Westburg straight up shouldn’t  be too far off. 

[interloper]

Just now, emmett16 said:

Of course they want the top guys.  They also have the data to see the Westburg is 100% a difference maker.  He put up 1/2 the WAR Cease did in 1/3 of a season…..his first season.  Seems to me Cease for Westburg straight up shouldn’t  be too far off. 

I totally agree. Getz is a ding dong. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't necessarily disagree about Westburg being equitable to Cowser, but I will hard disagree about Westburg being equitable to Kjerstad. I don't see Westburg's power translating as well as we'd like. Plenty of guys hit AAA home runs, but they aren't facing 97 with run and devastating sliders on a regular basis. To me, he's in the Cowser category that sort of exists between the top guys and the next tier. But that's not how I think other teams see it. Perhaps I'm just feeling a little sour about the current trade climate. But if Elias is drawing the line at Cowser, we may have a problem acquiring a frontline starter. 

 Cowser clearly has the higher upside as an all around player compared to Kjerstad.

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by Sports Guy

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 Cowser clearly has the higher upside as an all around player compared to Kjerstad.

 

I just disagree with this completely, but I understand that I'm probably in the minority with that view. 

Kjerstad to me is about as can't-miss of a ML 30-40 HR bat as you can get. And he's going to hit for a solid average and get on base, I think. 

[Just Regular]

39 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Interesting that you think Westburg is in that category. I think he's likely in the 2024 contributor category and that Elias will be reluctant to include him in these deals.

Elias is good enough at not tipping his hand, its an interesting black box which of Westburg v. Ortiz (maybe even v. Norby) is his most valuable extra infielder over the next few years.

I don't rule out yet that Ortiz or Norby is the keeper, but as the oldest Westburg was being showcased as well as deployed.

If fingers crossed Samuel Basallo is someone on the super Bat ladder, its arguable the Orioles have already played their last tournament game without him in the lineup.

Holliday-Mayo-Basallo is the wave of the rising tide that drowns some Oriole or Orioles who have been big contributors to the last 2 year's winners.