Santander for Bieber

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Huge mistake?  No.

Wrong?  No.

Not what I would have done?  Yes.

But you are saying Santander will clearly be more valuable. So, how can you not feel it’s a huge mistake to trade a far more valuable player for a lesser player?  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Fair question.  Those 11 innings came at the end of the season.  I’m assuming he’s healthy heading into 2024.  I’m sure the O’s would perform due diligence.  No guarantees in baseball.

Sure, there are no guarantees in anything.

But aren't there maybe better guarantees than a guy who's K rate has halved in 4 years, and who pitched 11 innings in the second half last year?

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You can't just dismiss risk with a generic "everything has risk" statement.  I could get hit by a bus tomorrow, I shouldn't start smoking cigarettes tonight.

This goes for @Sports Guy as well.

His K rate has almost HALVED since 2020.  HIs performance is basically going in one direction.  He missed time with an elbow injury this year in July.  He made two starts after that.  That's a lot of red flags.  They can't be ignored and just waved away as "everything has risk" just for the sake of doing something.

Bieber made 31 starts and  put up 3.6 BWar in 2022.   He’s not the pitcher he was 4-5 years ago but if his elbow is sound he's still pretty good.  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

But you are saying Santander will clearly be more valuable. So, how can you not feel it’s a huge mistake to trade a far more valuable player for a lesser player?  

I won't say clearly. I probably shouldn't have said "pretty easily" or whatever.  If I was a betting man though, I'd take Santander next year, but it's no landslide.

I think looking at the information I have, I don't like Bieber's trends.

Now, I know they have information and expertise that I don't have access to, so if they do it I'll assume they have good reason to and I'll be interested to see how it plays out (and of course rooting for it to work out magnificently).

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Sure, there are no guarantees in anything.

But aren't there maybe better guarantees than a guy who's K rate has halved in 4 years, and who pitched 11 innings in the second half last year?

You want someone who is a safer bet and better?   Who and what are you willing to pay?

[Pickles]

Just now, RZNJ said:

You want someone who is a safer bet and better?   Who and what are you willing to pay?

A prospect 4-6, and 10-14, and 20-30.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Pickles said:

A prospect 4-6, and 10-14, and 20-30.

For who?

[Pickles]

Just now, RZNJ said:

For who?

I don't know.  That's Elias' job.  

[Pickles]

And tbh, I don't hate to deal Santander.  I'd rather deal off the top than from the prospects; I just don't like Bieber.

[HakunaSakata]

I would trade Santander for Bieber, assuming there aren't any health issues. I do have some concerns about Bieber's decline and sometimes smoke and mirrors like path to success, but at that price I think it's probably worth the gamble. And then the team can decide if they're ready to commit to one of the young OFers as a replacement or if they need to sign a one year veteran stop gap. Either way I think there's a pretty good chance we can replace his 28 Hrs. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I don't know.  That's Elias' job.  

Would you prefer trading Kjerstad, Povich, and Fabian for Cease than trading Santander for Bieber?

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Would you prefer trading Kjerstad, Povich, and Fabian for Cease than trading Santander for Bieber?

The Cease trade.  And that's getting more in my price range.

[Rbiggs2525]

I’d want a Bieber plus deal. The Mike Elias throw in like Cano or Bradish. Some flyer from Cleveland’s 15-30 range prospects.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I won't say clearly. I probably shouldn't have said "pretty easily" or whatever.  If I was a betting man though, I'd take Santander next year, but it's no landslide.

I think looking at the information I have, I don't like Bieber's trends.

Now, I know they have information and expertise that I don't have access to, so if they do it I'll assume they have good reason to and I'll be interested to see how it plays out (and of course rooting for it to work out magnificently).

Ok, fair enough.  I don’t have an issue with what you are saying here.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Would you prefer trading Kjerstad, Povich, and Fabian for Cease than trading Santander for Bieber?

It’s a close call.  I’d rather have the three prospects than one year of Santander, but I also prefer two years of Cease to one year of Bieber. Push comes to shove, I’d prefer the Bieber deal, but it’s not an easy choice