Winter Meetings Thread

[Aglets]

If Elias was feeling pressure to get a deal done, he would still say he is not under pressure.

If Elias truly does feel no pressure, he would be open about not feeling under pressure.

He is incredibly disciplined with messaging (to put it mildly) so imo when he says something like this it does not actually convey any useful information at all.  

Elias knows that there is nothing advantageous about signaling to other teams that you are desperate to make a deal.  (or feeling strong pressure to get something done).

He is playing things the way he always does......not tipping his hand or revealing any info unless it makes strategic sense.

Kind of a bummer for us fans that follow everything so closely, but we will know soon how eager he was to make a deal.

[RZNJ]

I’m sure he feels some pressure.  He’s not going to say that publicly.  He wants other teams to know, “hey we won 101 games and I’m ok having the best AAA team of all-time for depth if that’s what it comes down to.  I’m not making a trade just to make a trade.  If it makes sense, we’ll do it.”

Two things. He’s tempering fan’s expectations and letting the other teams no that they aren’t going to get him to cave in.

Reading between the lines, our starter is coming through trade or not at all.

Edited December 5, 2023 by RZNJ

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Hilliard backs up all 3 outfield spots.  Mateo spells Mullins against a LHP here and there plus backing up SS and PR.   McKenna gone.   

As currently constructed. I think Hicks is underrated here as a 4th OF. He did a good job filling in for Mullins. Cowser couldn’t handle MLB pitching or CF defense. Hicks caught a lot of flack because most wanted Cowser to fill that role. Cowser isn’t written off. The 4th OF spot is best for Hicks and not Kjerstad/Cowser.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Reading between the lines, our starter is coming through trade or not at all.

I think this is right. Elias stated he wants a “front of the rotation” starter and everyone with eyes can see that is this team’s primary need. With Sonny Gray signed, there isn’t any free agent who fits that description who is going to sign early for 4 years or less. I’d be shocked if Angelos was willing to sign off on a 5+ year contract for a SP, so Elias’ hands are tied even if he were willing to consider that. 

I expect they will consider the SP in the Orioles’ price range as fallback options but the primary route to getting a higher quality SP has to be trade. 

Right now Cease and Bieber are the only SP known to be available. The speculation is the White Sox want to wait until some of the top FA SP dominoes fall to see if a team left hanging will go in harder on Cease, so Elias is stuck twiddling his thumbs and hoping the FA SP that the Orioles would actually consider don’t come off the board before that happens. 

Personally I don’t see why they can’t both sign whatever FA SP that they can afford and trade for a higher quality guy (who will likely be in arb years), but I’m not holding out hope for that. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

So...we haven't done anything right? Just as expected.

[sportsfan8703]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=3B
 

Could Urias be a fit at 2B/3B for the Marlins?  Part of a potential Luzardo trade?  Santander, Urias, and Norby for Luzardo.  

 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

As currently constructed. I think Hicks is underrated here as a 4th OF. He did a good job filling in for Mullins. Cowser couldn’t handle MLB pitching or CF defense. Hicks caught a lot of flack because most wanted Cowser to fill that role. Cowser isn’t written off. The 4th OF spot is best for Hicks and not Kjerstad/Cowser.

 

Hicks is ok.  We got the best of him offensively.  He’s injury prone and he’s not any good in CF and has been stretched there for years.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m sure he feels some pressure.  He’s not going to say that publicly.  He wants other teams to know, “hey we won 101 games and I’m ok having the best AAA team of all-time for depth if that’s what it comes down to.  I’m not making a trade just to make a trade.  If it makes sense, we’ll do it.”

Two things. He’s tempering fan’s expectations and letting the other teams no that they aren’t going to get him to cave in.

Reading between the lines, our starter is coming through trade or not at all.

I think this is correct. I also think it's pretty likely (75%+) they come away with a decent 1-3 SP option through a trade. Elias has to manage expectations in case it doesn't happen, and despite his liftoff comment, I think he's generally very good at doing that.

For as much as people critique him for being political and not saying anything of substance, I actually feel like he describes complex situations really thoroughly. He's said they want a high end SP, they have the means to acquire one, the FA/trade market is likely to be very competitive, and they're going to responsibly manage their assets (money/prospects). That's all accurate and a pretty comprehensive summation of their position, a lot of us just don't like that last point.

We saw an indication last night that the Braves interest in Cease is overblown. If that's true of Cease's overall market, Elias needs to hold the line on his offer and let the White Sox come to him. Unnecessarily parting with six cost-controlled years of a high level prospect, just to get a deal done ASAP, isn't a good long-term strategy.

[E-D-D-I-E]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

As currently constructed. I think Hicks is underrated here as a 4th OF. He did a good job filling in for Mullins. Cowser couldn’t handle MLB pitching or CF defense. Hicks caught a lot of flack because most wanted Cowser to fill that role. Cowser isn’t written off. The 4th OF spot is best for Hicks and not Kjerstad/Cowser.

 

I could not disagree more. We have 2 top notch OF prospects and your option is to block them with a guy who happened to hit solid for us, but hadn't hit in 4 years? Send down 2 outfielders who can't prove anything else in AAA, for Aaron Hicks. Yes we need a CF for Mullins upcoming injury, but that player can come from AAA.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

I could not disagree more. We have 2 top notch OF prospects and your option is to block them with a guy who happened to hit solid for us, but hadn't hit in 4 years? Send down 2 outfielders who can't prove anything else in AAA, for Aaron Hicks. Yes we need a CF for Mullins upcoming injury, but that player can come from AAA.

They can’t play CF and don’t SH. Also, once they come up they need to play everyday. 

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=3B
 

Could Urias be a fit at 2B/3B for the Marlins?  Part of a potential Luzardo trade?  Santander, Urias, and Norby for Luzardo.  

 

They have Arraez and Burger. They might have more interest in Mateo as an extra piece.

[ThisIsBirdland]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=3B
 

Could Urias be a fit at 2B/3B for the Marlins?  Part of a potential Luzardo trade?  Santander, Urias, and Norby for Luzardo.  

 

If Elias pulled that off I'd be insanely impressed, which is another way of saying I can't see any way in the world that would happen. One year of Santander, a utility infielder, and a fringe top 100 prospect for three years of Luzardo wouldn't get it done.

[wildcard]

I don't expect Elias to get a 1-3 starter.   I think they get a 4 or 5 from FA.   I think there is a better chance they trade for a reliever.

[LookinUp]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t buy for a second that Elias isn’t interested in extending these guys.  It’s far more likely that Angelos is just a cheap.

I don't even buy the Angelos is cheap angle. That's the effect, but I think it misses the point. I still think they're just waiting for Peter to pass away, at which point they'll sell. They want very clean books for the sale, and Elias simply has to operate within that reality.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I don't even buy the Angelos is cheap angle. That's the effect, but I think it misses the point. I still think they're just waiting for Peter to pass away, at which point they'll sell. They want very clean books for the sale, and Elias simply has to operate within that reality.

I don’t buy this either.  It’s not like locking up high level, MVp talent is a bad thing for incoming owners.

Plus, these guys are already under team control for the next several years anyway…we are talking 5-7 years from now before the salaries get “expensive”.