Craig Kimbrel - Signing

[Aglets]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Damn, Givens should give his agent a high five every time he sees him. What an absolute fleecing that deal was for him. He will end up getting paid $7 million by the Orioles to put up an 11.25 ERA in 4 innings of work. 

We give Elias a pass a lot due to the Orioles winning 101 games last year, but the Givens signing shows he and his team need some work when it comes to evaluating relievers coming off of injuries. 

His velocity had trended down every year since 2019, he was coming off knee injuries which clearly was contributed by the 250 plus pounds he was dropping on that front leg. Why they decided that he was worth $5 million and then had to offer him $2 million buy out the next year was a very poor decision. Hopefully Elias will learn from this mistake.

It funny, as analytically focus the Elias regime is, they really don't seem to take trends into consideration as much as others. Both Givens and Frazier were trending in the wrong direction when signed and sure enough, those trends continued as they are on the wrong side of 30.

Not saying that it was a great deal by any means.   But it looks like it wasn't quite as bad as 7M wasted. 

Orioles Release Mychal Givens - MLB Trade Rumors

Looks like his 2023 salary was $3M and then there was the $2M buyout.   Still not great at all.  But 5M wasted isn't quite as painful as 7.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No one, not even "I only pitch one inning Hader"  was going to replace Bautista.   I think I read that Clase had 12 blown saves last year.  Kind of makes you wonder if a couple of those 35 pitch two inning saves took their toll on The Mountain. 

There is no doubt Bautista was rode real hard last year. He was on pace for 77.2 very high leverage innings. Of the top ten saves leaders, only Emmanuel Clase's (72.2 IP) was rode similarly and it's not surprising Clase's September ERA was 4.63 and he had 3 blown saves in his 13 games. Clase only pitched over one inning once all year. Bautista was used in more than one inning seven times. 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

Not saying that it was a great deal by any means.   But it looks like it wasn't quite as bad as 7M wasted. 

Orioles Release Mychal Givens - MLB Trade Rumors

Looks like his 2023 salary was $3M and then there was the $2M buyout.   Still not great at all.  But 5M wasted isn't quite as painful as 7.

Ah, nice to know that $5 million was including the buyout apparently. Still, hope they use trends better.

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Damn, Givens should give his agent a high five every time he sees him. What an absolute fleecing that deal was for him. He will end up getting paid $7 million by the Orioles to put up an 11.25 ERA in 4 innings of work. 

We give Elias a pass a lot due to the Orioles winning 101 games last year, but the Givens signing shows he and his team need some work when it comes to evaluating relievers coming off of injuries. 

His velocity had trended down every year since 2019, he was coming off knee injuries which clearly was contributed by the 250 plus pounds he was dropping on that front leg. Why they decided that he was worth $5 million and then had to offer him $2 million buy out the next year was a very poor decision. Hopefully Elias will learn from this mistake.

It funny, as analytically focus the Elias regime is, they really don't seem to take trends into consideration as much as others. Both Givens and Frazier were trending in the wrong direction when signed and sure enough, those trends continued as they are on the wrong side of 30.

We definitely got fleeced on that one. Elias's m.o. appears to be to overpay for his target guys. Lyles, Frazier, and Gibson were all on the high end of their range. On the other hand, he has done a great job of staying out of long term deals so the overpays don't do any lasting damage. Part of the issue is that we appear to be limited to guys on the one year/short term market. There are only so many of these guys who we can target so if there is a guy he likes it is a priority to get them locked up. So, I think it is part of his strategy to an extent. I doubt it will change, and so far it has worked well overall. Hopefully we get better luck with Kimbrel. 

 

[Billy F-Face3]

6 hours ago, AdamK said:

 

Just me, but if I see a guy on the mound squating like that, I'm stealing a bag behind his back. I don't see how he gets out of it quick enough to catch me.

Other than than that, I think the signing makes sense and if he lives up to his career numbers, then I am satisfied with this signing. I think it does what we need for the 2024 season and kepes us competitive in the 9th inning without having  Bautista available to us.

Consider me in the thumbs up column for this signing.

[waroriole]

1/13 for Kimbrel just assured us that we’re not signing a SP. we can’t afford to play in that market. 

[SteveA]

45 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Got about 3 weeks before the state locks the doors and turns off the lights so they should probably get it on the calendar. 

Evicting someone takes quite a while, there's a whole legal process.   I doubt the sherriff will be padlocking the door to the warehouse bright and early on January 1.

[interloper]

Just now, waroriole said:

1/13 for Kimbrel just assured us that we’re not signing a SP. we can’t afford to play in that market. 

How much do you think a guy like Wacha commands?

[Billy F-Face3]

16 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Not saying that it was a great deal by any means.   But it looks like it wasn't quite as bad as 7M wasted. 

Orioles Release Mychal Givens - MLB Trade Rumors

Looks like his 2023 salary was $3M and then there was the $2M buyout.   Still not great at all.  But 5M wasted isn't quite as painful as 7.

There's alot of people in the world who could live the rest of their lives off of $5M if they manage it properly.

[Just Regular]

I believe the excellent Roster Resource breakdown of payroll, now reflecting BAL at $85mm, is already updated to include Kimbrel.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/breakdowns/payroll

MIA-CLE-DET-BAL all near 90'ish are the Clubs between 72 and 110 for the moment.

TBR at 126 and MIL at 110 in the next group ahead perhaps are about to offload some expensive Arms in Glasnow and Burnes.

[emmett16]

I wasn't super excited when I heard the news on the radio, but after checking out baseball savant and reading this thread, I feel a lot better.  93 Ks isn't something to sneeze at.  With how they've turned some guys around, it's not out of the realm of possibility that he has a standout year next year.  I like the signing.   

[webbrick2010]

46 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Damn, Givens should give his agent a high five every time he sees him. What an absolute fleecing that deal was for him. He will end up getting paid $7 million by the Orioles to put up an 11.25 ERA in 4 innings of work. 

We give Elias a pass a lot due to the Orioles winning 101 games last year, but the Givens signing shows he and his team need some work when it comes to evaluating relievers coming off of injuries. 

His velocity had trended down every year since 2019, he was coming off knee injuries which clearly was contributed by the 250 plus pounds he was dropping on that front leg. Why they decided that he was worth $5 million and then had to offer him $2 million buy out the next year was a very poor decision. Hopefully Elias will learn from this mistake.

It funny, as analytically focus the Elias regime is, they really don't seem to take trends into consideration as much as others. Both Givens and Frazier were trending in the wrong direction when signed and sure enough, those trends continued as they are on the wrong side of 30.

For me Givens being left off the Mets playoff roster was a PRETTY BIG RED FLAG, no idea what Elias was thinking.

The fact that Kimbrel was ineffective against the D-rays in the playoffs scares me. Did we sign up a washed up reliever two years in a row?

I don't think this team needs to be spending 13 million on a 36 yo reliever.

Trade some ML IF depth and bring in guys with upside

[Number5]

12 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Just me, but if I see a guy on the mound squating like that, I'm stealing a bag behind his back. I don't see how he gets out of it quick enough to catch me.

 

LOL, no way.  He would step off and throw you out easily.  Notice that MLB players aren't trying this.

[drjohnnyfever1]

I can't stand his delivery, but his results are very good.  I think this is a great signing because it doesn't cost any of our young talent.  I think many of the names coming up as trade chips are still in an evaluation window with the club.  Not to say I couldn't see trade happening, but I feel like FA fits where we are right now.  This solves the Felix problem for a year and I feel like any other signing is likely pitching and is going to be much the same with buying time for our farm guys that might be ready to start making appearances this year.

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

There's alot of people in the world who could live the rest of their lives off of $5M if they manage it properly.

I could do it without managing it properly.